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Ralph Wiggum

March 3-4, 2019 Snow/Rain Event

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4 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Tomorrow is the hor d'oeuvres before the Sunday entree lol

 

 

The good news is the GFS has been better than the Euro with many of this winter's storms, and the NAM is still a bit out of best range. 

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New and improved GFS with bugs like Russian spacecraft nice low placement over Hatteras exiting NE that's snow for most of us regardless what it shows

 

 

nwgfs3.png

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54 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Is it...could it....yep Ralph's Unicorn through the clouds 

so far south it fringes far NW peeps

 

I hope you don't look like Pai Mei by the time you get an actual snowstorm.  :lol:

Quick question, is the nudge south seen on some guidance coming from supression via the upper atmosphere or is something else driving that? If so, does that limit the systems ability to strengthen at our latitude?  Or am I barking up the wrong tree entirely, again.  

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Things look flatter and colder. Good. I don't need a 10"+ storm. Just a 4-6" ALL SNOW event will suffice.

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Colder runs all around in SE PA. Saw a slight increase in sleet at 6z right along the fall line so any snow maps should be viewed with caution. Also saw a notable increase in forward speed keeping the system progressive and moving it thru faster. I will gladly take that tradeoff tho as this is the better look I was talking about for those immediately to the W side of I95. Prevents the system from amping and warming. Less qpf but more frozen. I95 setting up as our demarcation between r/s with some sleet sandwiched in the middle. Looks like NW burbs are in the crosshairs for a significant event. 

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I dont know what thread to put this in, the March 1st or March 3rd event, because really it's that March 2nd event I'm talking about.  The 6z 3k NAM is looking pretty good for folks in the NW burbs as mentioned.

 

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36 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said:

I dont know what thread to put this in, the March 1st or March 3rd event, because really it's that March 2nd event I'm talking about.  The 6z 3k NAM is looking pretty good for folks in the NW burbs as mentioned.

 

I'm thinking March 1st thread since it starts later today...and yes it is!

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42 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said:

I dont know what thread to put this in, the March 1st or March 3rd event, because really it's that March 2nd event I'm talking about.  The 6z 3k NAM is looking pretty good for folks in the NW burbs as mentioned.

 

Starts before midnight so i was posting in the March 1 thread. I was unsure as well. 

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March snow is truly only good if it comes with death band rates and is followed by near record cold for a few days to counter balance the nuclear sun this meets the criteria if it holds

 

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24 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

fv3p_asnow_neus_14.png

 

lol

 

 

Has FV3 become the "new NAM" (even if much of it might include sleet, but still....)? Must have been a brain transplant from the NAM to the new GFS, meaning we can now start saying we were FV3ed. :lmao:

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Just now, RedSky said:

CMC through it's run Morch attack of the white walkers lol

 

morch2019.png

Am I seeing things or is that a HECS in NY & NE.  It's like Colorado's typical spring snow has been transplanted to the east coast.  Must be all sorts of convective feedback or something.

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2 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Am I seeing things or is that a HECS in NY & NE.  It's like Colorado's typical spring snow has been transplanted to the east coast.  Must be all sorts of convective feedback or something.

It's the unicorn late in the period even funnier because it's all rain for Sun-Mon I95 so add 12" lol

 

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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Hear hear....I concur

Not sure I agree....wasn't there a MET on here a couple years back that stated sleet is difficult to come by this time of year?  Typically its either rain or all snow due to dynamics in setups like this....I could be wrong though 

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Just now, hazwoper said:

Not sure I agree....wasn't there a MET on here a couple years back that stated sleet is difficult to come by this time of year?  Typically its either rain or all snow due to dynamics....I could be wrong though 

Typically we don't see IP from a storm exiting NE from Cape Hatteras 

 

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1 minute ago, hazwoper said:

Not sure I agree....wasn't there a MET on here a couple years back that stated sleet is difficult to come by this time of year?  Typically its either rain or all snow due to dynamics in setups like this....I could be wrong though 

i think it's normally due to precip rates. when there are light-moderate rates typically you don't see sleet like you would mid winter.

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12 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

i think it's normally due to precip rates. when there are light-moderate rates typically you don't see sleet like you would mid winter.

Understood, but those rates in these instances usually equate to cooling to column to all snow or just rain.  Even the models don’t print out much chance of sleet to be honest if you look at the thermals.  It’s warm at 850 and barely below freezing at the surface.  That doesn’t sound like sleet to me

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Dr No is a hundred miles NW of other guidance with a low over Delaware Bay not slight differences here, next closest is the NAM but further NW by 50 miles

 

 

 

grrrrrr.png

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37 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Dr No is a hundred miles NW of other guidance with a low over Delaware Bay not slight differences here, next closest is the NAM but further NW by 50 miles

 

 

 

grrrrrr.png

The old EE Rule. Hard to go against it. 

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