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March 3-4, 2019 Snow/Rain Event


Ralph Wiggum
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Do models take into account Virgo?

I'm a newb, I’ve been a lurker of weather forums like this one for the last 15 years. I come back for extreme weather like winter storms and hurricanes. I skim posts and have picked up things over the years. I know much more than the general public, but not enough to contribute to the discussions, hence the lurking.

I’m also a male and don’t know why my avatar is a girl lol

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12 minutes ago, kickingupastorm said:

Do models take into account Virgo?

I'm a newb, I’ve been a lurker of weather forums like this one for the last 15 years. I come back for extreme weather like winter storms and hurricanes. I skim posts and have picked up things ver the years. I know much more than the general public, but not enough to contribute to the discussions, hence the lurking.

I’m also a male and don’t know why my avatar is a girl lol

Virga is a pretty localized phenomena so probably not model-able per se. It's just that the precip is there but not making it all the way to the ground.  Also I think you can change your avatar by going to your profile page and selecting the "Cover photo" drop-down in the upper right hand corner (haven't done it with the newer version of the forum so not sure what the defaults are).

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2 minutes ago, Newman said:

Looking at the HRRR, the Berks/Lehigh Valley doesn't see accumulation until 7pm. After that it's bombs away with 1-2" hour rates for a couple hours.

Probably wrong because the HRRR also has rain for a few hours for us. It just started as snow here.

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3 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Probably wrong because the HRRR also has rain for a few hours for us. It just started as snow here.

I know I'm snowing here and it thinks I'm raining, but rates won't pick up until later. Even if it's snowing now, I don't see much of any accumulation.

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14 minutes ago, kickingupastorm said:

Do models take into account Virgo?

I'm a newb, I’ve been a lurker of weather forums like this one for the last 15 years. I come back for extreme weather like winter storms and hurricanes. I skim posts and have picked up things over the years. I know much more than the general public, but not enough to contribute to the discussions, hence the lurking.

I’m also a male and don’t know why my avatar is a girl lol

 

Models may output sim radar, but just as with the real thing, the precip it shows is at some elevation, but not necessarily at the surface.  Virga is dependent on how dry the air is near the surface and how much precip is evaporating into that dry air, so it can be much more localized than even the highest res models can pick up on.  Not sure if that explains anything.  lol

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4 minutes ago, Newman said:

I know I'm snowing here and it thinks I'm raining, but rates won't pick up until later. Even if it's snowing now, I don't see much of any accumulation.

Obviously it won't accumulate right away, but I doubt the accumulation holds off till 7. We'll probably have an inch or so on the ground by then.

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11 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Obviously it won't accumulate right away, but I doubt the accumulation holds off till 7. We'll probably have an inch or so on the ground by then.

7pm is a little late to me as well, but really it'll take until sundown and the heavier rates to get the majority of our snowfall. We'll likely verify our forecast in a small 3-5 hour period, maybe longer, where we thump hard.

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Quite elevation dependent along the rain snow line. Top of my hill at 650ft is snowing moderately with no sleet or rain mixed in.  Bottom of the hill at 150 ft is mostly rain with some flakes mixing in.

 

Edit: this has happened on more than one occasion this season due to all the marginal events we've had.

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