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March 3-4, 2019 Snow/Rain Event


Ralph Wiggum
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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So the icon, navgem, ukmet are pulling Lucy too? Seems like the solution is likely in between the two camps. NW of I95 SECS/MECS SE of I95 rain. 

The snowfall map gradient on the NAM that I saw in the NYC forum is insane. A little over an inch for the city but SECS or more not far to the north.

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3k NAM is much cooler than the 12k NAM. What we're seeing in most modeling, though, is to at first have the shortwave weaker, but it amplifies rather quickly to our SW, thus ushering in the mid level warmth. We want the amplification, it'll bring in the higher ceiling. But it also offers a lower floor with more warmth aloft. The best case scenario for the I-95 is to have the amplification occur just a smidge later in evolution. It would allow for better cyclonic flow into the areas without having to worry about rain.

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46 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

So do I, although it's the whole 10 days through the following weekend. Would 6" to 12" do the trick?

6-12" would be great for sun/mon, they've done commercial travel bans for much less this year on 95.  I know there was one in effect when I was driving up to N Vermont on 1/8/19 and I dont know if that amounted to much for SNE or NJ.  Also, 3am is the heart of the storm, so I dont see them sending us into a full fledged snowstorm, even if its raining here.  Not risking my life to fix some crappy concrete floor... especially after seeing all those pileups in the midwest.  :stun:. Edit: this should have been combined into one comment. Good thing we dont have a mod! :lol:

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17 minutes ago, RedSky said:

ECM is 100 miles SE of 12z still plenty of time to keep going that way 

 

Which also poses the risk of suppression for our area, especially in the far northern and western suburbs. The downside of a system farther SE is that it will be weaker, limiting your max snowfall potential. 

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1 minute ago, Winter Wizard said:

Which also poses the risk of suppression for our area, especially in the far northern and western suburbs. The downside of a system farther SE is that it will be weaker, limiting your max snowfall potential. 

Usually when the ECM jumps that far it's an over correction but it's chaos with these models now

 

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Really.....1-4” at the cabin. There must be a curse ...or hex....perhaps some type of damnation combination for monmouth and carbon?

Ok ok...it’s not all that bad....it is the second morning in a row I am enjoying the first cup of coffee while the ground is covered and snow falling.

2.5 at 2100ft.....and counting.... flake by flake






Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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2 hours ago, Newman said:

If these weakening trends continue, this is going to turn into nothing. 

gfs_asnow24_neus_6.png

We knew those crazy amounts of 15"+ on some guidance was never likely to verify. There was and is a high end limit to this system. In a relatively flat progressive flow you arent going to crawl a system up the coast or allow for the Atlantic to be tapped like a conveyor belt of moisture. So I'm not sure this is really a weaker system as you noted or just a reflection of lower qpf due to the fast moving nature of the system. I dont really recall it being a strong low pressure tbh...more a stretched out wave that is sliding by with stj moisture being transported N along the boundary. 

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6z NAM looks to be a nice hit I-95 and up the LHV. I believe the GFS is to dry with the QPF in our region. NAM likely overdone here but don’t we usually see things trend wetter as we get within 24 hours?  GFS did not do well for me with the storm last night. Got 4 when it showed 2. 

 

The Sunday event feels like a 4-8 event vs a 2-4 event as the GFS seems to think. 

 

 

6C35AF57-2539-4B29-91A5-B9DFC8A44D33.jpeg

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