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March 2019 Discussion


madwx
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Obviously tons of spread on that weekend system. 12z Euro ensemble leaned toward warmer OP a bit. FWIW Euro op did bring the Thursday night-Friday snows north vs previous few runs but still a miss locally. Also FWIW, GEFS mean for the first round in northern IL/northwest IN is about 2-4", a few members with decent hits locally or close by.

Best that can be said at this point is that there will probably be a decent system in the region (could be a miss locally) Thursday-Friday with a stronger system over the weekend a good bet to bring precip here but everything else TBD. Hope for the best so that this cold start to the month doesn't go to waste and then hopefully onto a more spring like pattern.



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With Superior iced over, what would normally be a snowy night is pretty much just clear and cold, with a temp of 3 and a wc around -8.  Snow depth varies anywhere from 55-60",  and areas where I've had to pile snow is reaching over 8' and nearing the gutters on the house.  There's not much more room for snow.  On average another 50" or so will fall before the season is done (even with Superior nearly frozen).  I only hope this is a gradual thaw, the snow water content is 14-16".

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2 hours ago, weatherbo said:

With Superior iced over, what would normally be a snowy night is pretty much just clear and cold, with a temp of 3 and a wc around -8.  Snow depth varies anywhere from 55-60",  and areas where I've had to pile snow is reaching over 8' and nearing the gutters on the house.  There's not much more room for snow.  On average another 50" or so will fall before the season is done (even with Superior nearly frozen).  I only hope this is a gradual thaw, the snow water content is 14-16".

I am very concerned about flooding for the UP this spring. We have had several storms overperform on warm air advection this winter, if we got into a warm pattern it could get ugly fast.

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26 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

-12F for the morning low. Record cold high of 6F in serious jeopardy. Sun is out in force and I can hear birds chirping as we sit at -10. 

 

More snow on your way next weekend

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The German model (ICON) has a crippling ice storm for much of Iowa, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin on Saturday night/Sunday with strong winds during the event.  Possibly a repeat of 2/24/2007.  This is all due to the very strong high in eastern Canada.

The GFS does show some ice for Iowa but NOWHERE near as much as the ICON does.  CMC is way south and much weaker.

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Got down to -5 an hour or so ago, and we'll probably struggle to get above 0 today. A few more storm threats on the horizon here. That first wave Thursday looks like it'd be a good event somewhere, thought the weekend one has more potential to be big. 

Either way, I just hope it warms up a bit. The roads are finally clear in town after being almost completely ice packed for the week after the blizzard, but the sun can only do so much when it's this cold out. 

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Our snow season was pretty wild.  We basically had nothing until January 12th and it appears we may get little if anything after February 20th.  In between, we had 44".  I was hoping we could break the season record, but the snowstorm train has ended as abruptly as it began.  We haven't had any real snow since February 20th and, unless the GFS pulls a coup with the Thursday system, there's none in sight.  Models have been teasing more big snow several times since Feb 20th, but they've all gone north or south or fizzled.

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2 hours ago, Natester said:

The German model (ICON) has a crippling ice storm for much of Iowa, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin on Saturday night/Sunday with strong winds during the event.  Possibly a repeat of 2/24/2007.  This is all due to the very strong high in eastern Canada.

Fortunately the ICON doesn't perform nearly as well as the tiger tank did

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Wind chills down around -25 out there.  Pretty impressive for March.  At this time of the year at this point in the night we could easily still be in the 60s, with muggy dews near 60 as well.  We've had snow cover for almost 2 straight months, going back to Jan 12th.  Still 2-3" of crust covering the whole backyard.  

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3 hours ago, mimillman said:

-2 at ORD, which is very impressive for March. Too bad this cold will have been completely useless

Agreed. But given the longer days and the warmth of the early March sun you can tell it's time to put hardcore winter to bed. Looks like will get split in the late week and weekend events so my hope we'd get one last hurrah seems to be fading. If so, let's get an early spring beginning the back half of March.

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17 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Only in the single digits today with wind chills below zero all day even with full sun.

Still clearing snow

 

 

 

 

On the plus side, if you slip and fall off the roof, you won't fall far and you have a nice cushion beneath you.

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17 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Only in the single digits today with wind chills below zero all day even with full sun.

Still clearing snow

 

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Cool pics.  I would enjoy experiencing that kind of snow at a week's stay at a BNB or vacation home.  But quite honestly, to live in that kind of climate with that kind of consistent snow cover would drive me to the 'Here's Johnny' version of Jack Nicholson in The Shining.   Afterall, it's the hunger for snow, the tracking, and the heartbreak misses that ultimately makes me a weenie and feeds my love for snow.   

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The low of -3 at ORD is technically the coldest March temperature to occur with 0 snowcover.  I say technically because March 1, 1962 got to -5 and March 3, 1943 got to -3 with a T of snowcover in both cases.  In any event, a very rare and impressive occurrence.

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4 hours ago, Crispus said:

On the plus side, if you slip and fall off the roof, you won't fall far and you have a nice cushion beneath you.

Except it isn't cushiony at all, it's packed like rock.  I can walk on it.

3 hours ago, buckeye said:

I would enjoy experiencing that kind of snow at a week's stay at a BNB or vacation home.  But quite honestly, to live in that kind of climate with that kind of consistent snow cover would drive me to the 'Here's Johnny' version of Jack Nicholson in The Shining.   Afterall, it's the hunger for snow, the tracking, and the heartbreak misses that ultimately makes me a weenie and feeds my love for snow.   

I can't explain why I'm here.   An inner desire/call of the wild type thing, I guess.  It's more than just snow.

 

Low this morning was -22 here at the house.  Considering it's March, this has some grit.

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Interesting that the coldest temps in the UP often occur in mid February to early March, after Lake Superior is mostly frozen and therefore doesn’t moderate the air flowing over it. 

Then you also get the occasional warm day in late March, where temps warm into the 50s with 4 feet of snow on the ground...but you only lose 2” of depth because the snow is so dense. 

Good times. :thumbsup:

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