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USCAPEWEATHERAF

Midweek event, Yah or Nah? February 27-28th Clipper

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00z and 6z model runs today show a potential for a widespread 3-6 or 4-8" amounts of snow across SNE.  We have seen this before with weaker lift in the DGZ, we need that mid-level shortwave to improve for better dynamics.  EURO shows a cold air mass in place, leading to S:L ratios near 12-15:1 even for the Cape and Islands.

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think every thread you've been excited for has gone to crap for you. 

Even a weenie catches a worm every once in a while.

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think every thread you've been excited for has gone to crap for you. 

Thanks for that whoosh of confidence Scott.

 

Just now, Rtd208 said:

Even a weenie catches a worm every once in a while.

I'm not the biggest weenie, man I wish those two systems in the mid-week period actually were allowed to phase, that southern low has a lot of moisture we need for this clipper system to produce.  Thankfully we have the 6z and 18z EURO runs to mix in with the 00z and 12z runs.

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Thanks for that whoosh of confidence Scott.

 

I'm not the biggest weenie, man I wish those two systems in the mid-week period actually were allowed to phase, that southern low has a lot of moisture we need for this clipper system to produce.  Thankfully we have the 6z and 18z EURO runs to mix in with the 00z and 12z runs.

I'm joking. 

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Pretty good agreement now on all guidance of a nice isentropic lift event for most or all of SNE. There will prob be an enhanced band or two somewhere as well. 

This doesn't look like a big event...but high end advisory stuff is well within reach. A little early still for dissecting soundings but some of the guidance has a very deep DGZ on this so it's possible ratios could be high. 

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Scott's favorite model the RPM latest run shows Cape and Islands receiving 4-6" of snow this mid-week period.  NWS local forecast shows 2-4"

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2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Scott's favorite model the RPM latest run shows Cape and Islands receiving 4-6" of snow this mid-week period.  NWS local forecast shows 2-4"

Can you post it?

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Can you post it?

Jerry, I can say your area sees 2-4", could increase with time.  I am monitoring the latest 6z EURO run.

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3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Jerry, I can say your area sees 2-4", could increase with time.  I am monitoring the latest 6z EURO run.

Thank you James.   2-4/3-6 seems good at the moment..

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Just now, weathafella said:

Thank you James.   2-4/3-6 seems good at the moment..

I think longitude helps with this system, a typical miller B clipper that intensifies more as it heads east

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06z euro def juiced up a bit. Prob solid 3-6" for most of SNE. With good ratios, prob toward upper end of that. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

06z euro def juiced up a bit. Prob solid 3-6" for most of SNE. With good ratios, prob toward upper end of that. 

Could CC and Islands see our first Winter Storm Warning of the winter season?

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Just now, dendrite said:

How does 3-6" elicit a warning?

He said the upper part of the amounts, 6" is the upper part and suggests warning level snows.

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

He said the upper part of the amounts, 6" is the upper part and suggests warning level snows.

James doesn’t get it . Time and time again. Weenie goggles. Needs a Benadryl drip.

You need confidence for 6” or More James for a warning. 3-6” doesn’t do it 

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

He said the upper part of the amounts, 6" is the upper part and suggests warning level snows.

Yeah, but you're forecasting for an average and the highest probability of an amount. If 6" is on the extreme end it's not exactly the amount with the highest confidence. I think we'd need to see the models juice it up at least another category to increase the chance for WSWs.

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3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

He said the upper part of the amounts, 6" is the upper part and suggests warning level snows.

I said "if" we had the higher ratios that some guidance is showing. Never base a forecast off ratios if that is the only way to verify. 

 

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty good agreement now on all guidance of a nice isentropic lift event for most or all of SNE. There will prob be an enhanced band or two somewhere as well. 

This doesn't look like a big event...but high end advisory stuff is well within reach. A little early still for dissecting soundings but some of the guidance has a very deep DGZ on this so it's possible ratios could be high. 

A fluffer-nutter

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I said "if" we had the higher ratios that some guidance is showing. Never base a forecast off ratios if that is the only way to verify. 

There are a lot of NWS offices that could use that rule taped to the workstations. 

The call might be coming from inside the house on that one too, because as I've told Ryan and Scott, GYX is sitting at a cool 39% false alarm rate on warnings this season. Given that it's an 80% confidence product, you would expect a number 20% or less if you're doing it right. 

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