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Damage In Tolland

Damaging Wind With Forests Leveled

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

It’s not supposed to be yet.

I'm not expecting above mid 40s for TAN gusts.  NW winds never seem to make a dent there.

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10 hours ago, DomNH said:

Maybe we'll see a rogue 45 kt gust but I think 50+ kts is a pipe dream. We'll see. 

It is exceedingly rare to have ASOS/AWOS top 50 kt. In a perfect world I probably would've slapped an advisory everywhere, but there were enough forecast soundings showing 65 kt at the top of the mixed layer and the way ALY and BOX already had warnings out that I could justify a few counties in my southern zones too. In the end I have 8 ASOS/AWOS in my warnings, and I'll be pleasantly surprised if more than 2 hit 50 kt. 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

BOX has 61kts in the ORH TAF. A little gone wild.

I'll eat my hat if that happens. I'm feeling a 50-55 kt type day, not near-hurricane force on NW flow. 

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I mean yeah, let's be real here. This isn't a hurricane or an easterly flow LLJ mixing down like Feb 2010. Trees grow to handle westerly winds. This will be a category or so higher than our typical high wind CAA events though. So don't go expecting DIT type damage even though us mets are on board with a very windy day. I think many will find it top tier windy (for W flow) come this afternoon. Some weaker trees and branches may go down and there may be some power outages, but I think we'll all be fairly safe. lol

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

There will be gusts 65-70 for quite a few 

I still think most get 50-60 with some 65mph. 

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I'm intrigued as to whether we get the 65 mph gust touted by local media when this thing maxes what 4 or 5 pm...  ?

I'm not sure what the origin of that suggestion is ...be it NWS' or personal analysis, but ... in my experience it is very hard to exceed 55 mph on land-based under-belly scenarios without iso b correction physics assisting.  

I did witness a 60+mph once over southern lower Michigan after the passage of a deep low in the 970s, way back in 1981 ... I recall specifically, the low moving NNE ... leaving the area, and fierce storm forced wind gusts downed limbs and disrupted power over a considerable area as that cyclonic arc rapidly lifted through. 

The problem is, the Ekman boundary layer drag physics really makes that hard ... you need some compensating kinematics ... deep instability with CAA could certainly help.  One thing about this that I've been pretty stunned about all week is the multiple sourced model depiction for 140+ kt wind max at 500 mb moving W-E off the MA.  Not one or two wind flags either... but a massive tube of mid level mechanical power.  These are upper tier velocities for that sigma.  Obviously ... I am not suggesting we will mix 500 mb momentum to the surface .. but as an accompanying feature I think that's spectacular

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6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Do we employ the same deductions as your snowfall forecast numbers (x.67)

Well you’ve been thinking 30-40mph since Friday. So think as you wish 

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