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March 2019 temperature forecast contest


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Table of forecasts March 2019

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Stebo _______ (-5%) _____ +1.5 _+0.5 _--1.0 __--1.2 _+2.0 _+1.0 ___--2.5 _--2.0 _--1.5

wxallannj _______________ +1.2 _+0.8 _+0.2 __--1.0 _+2.3 _+1.5 ___+1.2 _+1.3 _--1.0

Scotty Lightning __________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ____0.0 _--0.5 _+0.5

hudsonvalley21 __________ +0.7 _+0.2 _+0.4 __--0.7 _+1.6 _+0.3 ___ --0.8 _--0.1 _--0.5

BKViking ____ (-8%) ______+0.2 _--1.1 _--1.2 __--1.2 _+1.7 _+1.3 ___ --1.8 _--1.4 _--1.3

___ Normal ______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 

___ Consensus __________ --0.1 _--0.5 _--1.0 __ --1.2 _+0.6 _+0.3 ___--2.5 _--0.2 _--0.8

wxdude64 ______________ --0.1 _--0.3 _--0.3 __ --4.1 _+0.6 _+0.4 ___--3.9 _+0.2 _--1.1

Tom ___________________ --0.2 _--0.5 _--0.5 __--0.9 _--0.1 _--0.3 ___--0.5 _--0.3 _--0.7

RodneyS ________________--1.8 _--1.5 _--1.1 __--4.9 _--0.7 _--0.4 ___--4.6 _--0.1 _--0.8

Roger Smith _____________--1.8 _--2.4 _--2.2 __--0.9 _--1.5 _--0.7 ___--4.5 _+1.4 _--3.5 

DonSutherland.1 _________ --2.0 _--1.7 _--1.3 __--5.2 _--1.4 __ 0.0 ___--3.5 _--0.2 _--0.1

RJay __________ (-5%) ___ --2.5 _--2.5 _--2.5 __--3.5 _--1.5 __ 0.0 ___--2.5 _--1.0 __0.0

____________________________________________________________________________

Consensus for the eleven forecasts is sixth ranked or median value. 

Red and blue color codes identify warmest and coldest forecasts. 

 

 

 

 

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First reports on anomalies and forecasts ...

 

________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

____ (7d) _______ --6.5 _--8.8 _--6.1__--14.9 _--3.8 _--9.2 ___--17.1 _+3.8 _--5.3

 

_8th __ (p14d) ___ --4.5 _--6.0 _--4.0 __ --8.0 _--1.0 _--2.0 ___--11.0 __0.0 _--3.5

 

_8th __ (p24d) ___ --3.0 _--3.5 _--2.5 __ --5.0 _--0.5 _--0.5 ___ --7.0 _+0.5 _--2.0

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Snowfall contest 2018-2019 -- moved from Feb contest thread for final updates

... updates through May 21st

... forecasts marked in red have been passed by actual snowfall.

 

Table of departures (red can increase, black can decrease)

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

 

Snowfall to date ________  16.9__20.5__27.4___49.5 __31.3 _118.8___48.1 __20.2 __103.6 

 

RodneyS _______________ 4.4 __ 4.5*_ 10.1*___ 8.5 _ 12.2 __29.8 ____ 4.4 __15.7__30.6 ___ 120.2 (1)

Roger Smith _____________1.1*__ 7.5 _ 17.6 __ 19.0 __ 4.2*28.8 ___12.4 __10.2 __25.6 ___ 126.4 (2)

Stebo __________________ 3.7 _ 13.8 _ 26.1 ___16.0 _ 15.7 __31.8 ___11.1  __ 9.5 __ 6.6 ___ 134.3 (3)

DonSutherland.1 ________ 15.6 _ 29.5 _ 30.1 ___ 1.0 _ 22.2 __ 8.8 ____ 3.9 __16.7 __10.6  ___ 138.4 (4)

hudsonvalley21 __________ 5.1 _ 19.5 _ 34.6 ___13.5 _ 16.9 __17.3 ____1.9*__14.5 __15.6 ___ 139.9 (5)

wxdude64 ______________ 6.0 _ 20.1 _ 32.3 ____8.1 _ 14.6 __20.4 ___ 19.5 __13.5 __13.3 ___ 150.3 (6)

___ Consensus __________ 7.1 _ 24.0 _ 33.5 ___ 9.5 _ 13.4 _ 26.2 ____ 10.4 _ 13.8 __14.8 ___ 155.2 ((7))

wxallannj _______________ 8.1 _ 26.5 _ 24.6 ___ 0.5*_ 19.7 _ 35.8 ____ 8.9 __ 7.2 __ 26.6 ___ 157.9 (7)

dmillz25 ________________ 7.1 _ 32.5 _ 39.6 ___ 9.5 __ 6.4 _ 33.8 ____ 8.9 __15.2 __13.6 ___ 166.6 (8)

RJay __________________16.1 _ 33.5 _ 42.6 __ 19.5 __ 6.7 _ 18.8 ___ 16.9 __14.2 __ 3.6*___171.9 (9)

Tom ___________________ 9.4 _ 35.9_ 38.2 __ 19.9 _ 10.3 _ 23.6 ___ 14.2 __18.3 __14.0 ___ 183.8 (10)

BKViking _______________ 7.1 _ 34.5 _ 43.6 ___ 14.5 __ 7.7 _ 40.7 ___ 11.9 __ 2.2*_25.6 ___ 187.9 (11)

Scotty Lightning __________8.1 _ 21.5 _ 47.6__ 20.5_ 48.7__1.3*___ 26.9 __10.2 __18.6 ___ 203.3 (12)

_____________________________________________________________________________

these are now placed in rank order.

* current low departure _ 2 for RodneyS and Roger Smith with hudsonvalley21, Scotty Lightning, BKViking, wxallannj and RJay holding one each.  

RodneyS regained the lead after DEN picked up 3.5" of snow in the past month in April. If DEN is the only location left with snow to come (BTV is now a non-issue anyway) then RodneyS would maintain a lead until 11.4" (now 7.5") more has fallen (edit May 21st, 3.9" has in fact fallen so far in May so now it should read 7.5"), then I would have the lower total departure (assuming no snow falls anywhere else). Neither of the two forecasters with more in their account than me at DEN can use their surprlus to catch me. I am not that confident that much more snow will fall at DEN but the season runs to mid-May there (and perhaps early June at this rate). So the odds are probably more in RodneyS' favor than myself. At other locations, I do not foresee much potential for the contest lead to change.

============================================

Actual forecasts >>>

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

 

Snowfall to date ________  16.9__20.5 __27.4 ___49.5__31.3 _118.8___48.1__20.2 __103.6 

 

RJay __________________33.0 _ 54.0 _ 70.0 __ 30.0 _ 38.0 _100.0___ 65.0 __ 6.0 _100.0

DonSutherland.1 ________ 32.5 _ 50.0 _ 57.5 __ 48.5 _ 53.5 _110.0___ 52.0 __ 3.5 _ 93.0

Tom __________________ 26.3 _ 56.4_ 65.6 __ 29.6 _ 41.6 _ 95.2 ___ 62.3 __ 1.9 _ 89.6

wxallannj ______________ 25.0 _ 47.0 _ 52.0 __ 49.0 _ 51.0 _ 83.0 ___ 57.0 _ 13.0 _ 77.0

Scotty Lightning _________25.0 _ 42.0 _ 75.0__ 70.0_ 80.0_120.0___75.0 10.0 _ 85.0

BKViking _______________24.0 _ 55.0 _ 71.0 __ 35.0 _ 39.0 _ 78.0 ___ 60.0 _ 18.0 _ 78.0

 

___ Consensus _________ 24.0 _ 44.5 _ 60.9 __ 37.5 _ 44.7 _ 92.6 ___ 58.5 __ 6.4 _ 88.8

 

dmillz25 _______________ 24.0 _ 53.0 _ 67.0 __ 40.0 _ 37.7 _ 85.0 ___ 57.0 __ 5.0 _ 90.0

wxdude64 _____________ 22.9 _ 40.6 _ 59.7 __ 38.9 _ 45.9 _ 98.4 ___ 67.6 __ 6.7 _ 90.3

hudsonvalley21 _________ 22.0 _ 40.0 _ 62.0 __ 36.0 _ 48.2 _101.5___ 51.0 __ 5.7 _ 88.0

Roger Smith ____________18.0 _ 28.0 _ 45.0 __ 30.5 _ 35.5 _ 90.0 ___ 60.5 _ 10.0 _ 78.0

Stebo _________________ 13.2 _ 34.3 _ 53.5 __ 33.5 _ 47.0 _ 87.0 ___ 37.0 _ 10.7 _ 97.0

RodneyS _______________12.5 _ 25.0 _ 37.5 __ 41.0 _ 43.5 _ 89.0 ___ 52.5 __ 4.5 _ 73.0

_____________________________________________________________________

High forecasts in bold, low forecasts in italic. 

Consensus is median, average of 6th and 7th ranked forecasts. 

Normal will be added later from NWS daily climate data snowfalls late in season. 

... watch for updates to season totals and this post will migrate to new months as we move along .

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Updates on the trends and forecasts ...

 

________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

____ (7d) _______ --6.5 _--8.8 _--6.1__--14.9 _--3.8 _--9.2 ___--17.1 _+3.8 _--5.3

___ (14d) _______ --1.9 _--4.2 _--2.8__ --6.3 _ +2.5 _+0.6 ___ --9.6 _--1.4 _--4.6

___ (21d) _______ --0 5_--2.0 _--0.7__ --4.6 _ +0.8 _--1.0 ___ --7.8 __ 0.0 _+0.4

___ (28d) _______ --0 8_--1.7 _--0.3__ --3.5 _ +0.8 _--0.2 ___ --5.0 _+0.4 _+1.4

 

_8th __ (p14d) ___ --4.5 _--6.0 _--4.0 __ --8.0 _--1.0 _--2.0 ___--11.0 __0.0 _--3.5

15th __ (p21d) ___ --0.5 _--2.0 _--1.3 __ --4.3 _+1.0 __ 0.0 ___ --6.4 _+1.1 _--1.5

22nd __ (p28d)___ --0.7 _--1.5 _--1.0 __ --3.0 _ +0.5 __ 0.0 ___ --4.5 _+1.0 _+0.1

 

_8th __ (p24d) ___ --3.0 _--3.5 _--2.5 __ --5.0 _--0.5 _--0.5 ___ --7.0 _+0.5 _--2.0

15th __ (p31d) ___ --0.5 _--1.5 _--1.0 __ --2.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ --2.5 _+2.0 _--2.0

22nd __ (p31d) ___ --0.5 _--1.5 _--1.0 __ --2.5 _+1.0 __0.0 ___ --3.0 _+1.0 _--0.5

 

29th __ (p31d) ___ --0.2 _--1.0 _+0.2 __ --4.0 _+1.0 __0.0 ___ --5.0 _+1.0 _+1.0

final anomalies ____ 0.0 _--0.8 _+0.7 __ --3.6 _+1.1 _--0.7 ___ --5.3 _+0.4 _+1.9

__________________________________________________________________

(15th) _ Trends in the past week turned out more extreme than predicted, leading to moderate errors (the expected warming outpaced forecasts especially by 13th-14th). Even so the forecasts caught about two-thirds of the actual warming. SEA on the other hand only moderated slightly. A larger western warming is expected this coming week with temperatures returning to near normal values in most of the eastern and central states. The outlook period from 22nd to 31st (GFS guidance) was handled as near normal in the northeast and ORD, trending to +3 warmth in the southeast and southwest, and a return to slightly below normal values for SEA.... seems a bit early to work out provisional scoring yet with those late month trends looking subject to revision later. 

(22nd) _ Forecasts for the past week have verified well (average error was 0.72, a larger portion for SEA which warmed up to record levels for several days where the forecast had been a bit less robust). This coming week looks fairly close to normal or a touch below in most places, and the month end portion 29th to 31st appears to confirm the earlier trends. So I will post some provisional scoring for the month soon. 

(29th) _ Forecasts have been quite close this past week (average error 0.49) but the outlook for 29th-31st at that last forecast has changed enough to make it necessary to adjust most of the provisionals. DEN and ORD will now fail to gain any further ground and will stay near the cold end of our forecast range. SEA had the largest error last week and is finishing warmer than predicted in the provisionals. The eastern stations are all getting a slight boost too.

(1st April) _ Final anomalies have been posted overnight and on Monday morning. Scoring has been adjusted. 

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Final scoring for March 2019

 

Scores in orange are subject to late penalties (shown in next line). High scores in bold (after late penalties).

 

FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL

 

wxdude64 ______________ 98 _ 90 _ 80 __268 __ 90 _ 90 _ 78 __ 258 __526 __ 75 _ 96_ 40 __ 211 _____737

RodneyS ________________64 _  86 _ 64 __ 214 __ 74 _ 64 _ 94 __ 232 __ 446 __89 _ 90 _ 46 __ 225 _____ 671

___ Consensus __________ 98 _ 94 _ 66 __ 258 __ 52 _ 90 _ 80 __ 222 __ 486 __ 47 _ 88 _ 46 __ 181 _____ 661

hudsonvalley21 __________ 86 _ 80 _ 94__ 260 __ 42 _ 90 _ 80 __ 212 __ 472 __ 13 _ 90 _ 52 __ 155 _____ 627

Tom ___________________ 96 _ 94 _ 76 __ 266 __ 46 _ 76 _ 92 __ 214 __480 __ 07 _ 86 _ 48 __ 141 _____ 621

DonSutherland.1 _________ 60 _ 82 _ 60 __ 202 __ 68 _ 50 _ 86 __ 204 __ 406 __ 67 _ 88 _ 60 __ 215_____ 621

 

___ Normal _____________100 _ 84 _ 86 __ 270__ 28 _ 78 _ 86 __ 192 __ 462 __ 00 _ 92 _ 62 __ 154 _____ 616

 

Scotty Lightning __________80 _ 64 94 __ 238 __ 08 _98 _ 66 __ 172 __ 410 __ 00 _ 82 _ 72 __ 154 _____ 564

wxallannj _______________ 76 _ 68 _ 90 __ 234 __ 48 _ 76 56 __ 180 __ 414 __ 00 _ 82 _ 42 __ 124 _____ 538

RJay ___________________ 50 66 36 __ 152 __ 98 _ 48 _ 86__ 232 __ 384 __ 47 _ 72 _ 62 __ 181 _ 565

____________ (-5%) _____ 48 _ 63 _ 34 __ 145 __ 93 _ 46 _ 82 __ 221 __ 366 __ 45 _ 68 _ 59 __ 172 _____ 538

BKViking ________________96 _ 94 _ 62 __ 252 __ 52 _ 88 _ 60 __ 200 __ 452 __ 33 _ 64 _ 36 __ 133 _ 585

____________ (-8%) _____ 88 _ 86 _ 57 __ 231 __ 48 _ 81 _ 55 __ 184 __ 415 __ 30 _ 59 _ 33 __ 122 _____ 537

Roger Smith _____________64 _ 68 _ 42 __ 174 __ 46 _ 48 _100__ 194 __ 368 __ 87 _ 80 _ 00 __ 167 _____ 535

Stebo __________________ 70 _ 74 _ 66 __ 210 __ 52 _ 82 _ 66 __ 200 __ 410 __ 47 _ 52 _ 32 __ 131 _ 541

____________ (-5%) _____ 67 _ 70 _ 63 __ 200 __ 49 _ 78 _ 63 __ 190 __ 390 __ 45 _ 49 _ 30 __ 124 _____ 514

_____________________________________________________________________________

 

Extreme forecast report

 

There are now four extreme forecasts in play at this time.

 

BOS is a shared win for Scotty Lightning (+1.0) and hudsonvalley21 (+0.4) with a finish at +0.7. 

IAH is a win for Roger Smith with the coldest forecast at -0.7. 

DEN is a win for RodneyS (-4.6) as it finished -5.3.

SEA will be a win for Scotty Lightning (+0.5) expected to finish around +1.9. 

 

 

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<<<<< ===== ----- ----- ----- ----- Annual Contest Scoring Jan-Mar 2019 ----- ----- ----- ----- ===== >>>>>

 

A new look for the annual table this year, will continue with the all nine format of monthly scoring. Best score tallies will be handled in a separate table. From now to end of 2019, best scores will be tabulated for the eleven regular participants and this will continue with any new or temporary additions getting best scores in addition to those. 

Highest cumulative scores are shown in red in this table (for nine locations) or bold for subtotals. 

 

FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA __west___all 9 TOTAL

 

wxdude64 _______________244 _260 _230 __ 734 __228 _160 _224 __ 612__1346 __227 _198 _ 72 __497____1843

 

___ Consensus ___________ 254 _266 _216 __ 736__150 _176 _228 __ 554 __1290 __ 173 _204 _124 __ 501 ____1791

 

DonSutherland.1 __________212 _254 _170 __ 636 __166 _162 _220 __ 548 __1184 __ 189 _218 _198__ 605____1789

hudsonvalley21 ___________220 _264 _230 __ 714 __132 _188 _216 __ 536 __1250 __ 141 _230_148 __ 519 ____1769

RodneyS ________________ 188 _212 _230 __ 630 __132 _202 _244 __ 578 __1208 __ 207 _198 _136 __ 541 ____1749

Stebo ___________________235 _233 _238 __ 706 __146 _145 _201 __ 492 __1198 __ 191 _189 __87 __ 467 ____1665

wxallannj ________________220 _224 _258 __ 702 __ 92 _220_214 __ 526 __1228 __ 116 _192 _114 __ 422 ____1650

Roger Smith _____________ 258 _188_212 __ 658 ___74 _150 _270 __ 494 __1152 __ 183 _162 _130 __ 475 ____1627

___ Normal ______________212 _264 _214 __ 690 __136 _136 _214 __ 486 __1176 __ 089 _223 _123 __ 435 ____1611

BKViking _________________232 _270_217 __ 719 __156 _137 _191 __ 484 __1203 __ 174 _153 _ 79 __ 406 ____1609

Scotty Lightning ___________230 _234 _232 __ 696 __106 _196 _196 __ 498 __1194 __ 080 _176 _136 __ 392 ____1586

Tom ____________________168 _246 _168 __ 582 __226 __ 82 _224 __ 532 __1114 __ 095 _208 _134 __ 437 ____1551

RJay ____________________148 _181 _173 __ 502 __188 _124 _212 __ 524 __1026 __ 186 _218 _118 __ 522 ____1548

_______________________________________________________________________

Best scores in each category 

_ (nine locations, three regional subtotals, and central-eastern or "original six" subtotal (c/e).

_ These are best scores in each monthly contest, best total scores are highlighted in the table above in red. Order for best scores will be based on rank in table above.

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___all nine

 

wxdude64 ______________ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1

___Consensus ___________1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

DonSutherland.1 _________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___2 ___ 1 ____ 0

RodneyS _______________ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 0

hudsonvalley21 __________0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 1

wxallannj _______________0 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Stebo __________________1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1

Roger Smith ____________ 2 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

___ Normal _____________ 1 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

BKViking _______________ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Scotty Lighning __________ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0

RJay ___________________0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Tom ___________________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

 

__________________________________________________________________________________

 

Extreme forecasts  

STANDINGS to date in 2019 _ March provisional

 

DonSutherland1 ______ 4-0

RodneyS ____________ 3-2

Roger Smith _________ 3-2

Stebo ______________ 2-0

Scotty Lightning ______ 2-0

wxallannj ____________1-0

RJay ________________1-0

Normal ______________1-0

Tom ________________1-1

______________________________________________________________________________

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