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John1122

Spring/Summer 2019 medium to long range discussion.

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I'm going to be near and possibly on High Knob on Saturday, so hoping I can catch a few flakes. Although recent model runs seem to want the precip shield to be further west than VA. It's a cut off, so I guess we'll know when it develops, lol. 

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Time to kick this thread into gear...LOL.  No, not really.  After the "deluge", things have slowed down in the weather world at least regionally speaking.  The "Hurry Up and No" winter just took the life out of me.  LOL.  So thought I would look ahead.  I have done all of about thirty minutes worth of thinking about this...so don't put too much stock in this.  Next winter may be a real crap shoot, at least it looks that way right now.  The QBO will be due to crash during later winter, and might be falling by Dec/Jan anyway.  ENSO is looking very Nada-ish.  So early call is a very back-and-forth winter...some winter for the West and some winter for the East.  Not a terribly "out on a limb" idea, but just looks that way right now.  The Canadian shows some promise early for the East and then switches the cold pattern to the West for Jan/Feb....Wait?  What?  Didn't we just have that winter pattern?! My guess would be cold early for the East....switch to the West for mid-winter...back East as the QBO tanks.  And one last nugget,  I may have a dog in the fight now when it comes to the northern Rockies' winters...more on that later.  Been super busy lately.  It may very well be that I am not a regular again until mid-July.  After that, hopefully I will be back in a normal routine.

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2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Time to kick this thread into gear...LOL.  No, not really.  After the "deluge", things have slowed down in the weather world at least regionally speaking.  The "Hurry Up and No" winter just took the life out of me.  LOL.  So thought I would look ahead.  I have done all of about thirty minutes worth of thinking about this...so don't put too much stock in this.  Next winter may be a real crap shoot, at least it looks that way right now.  The QBO will be due to crash during later winter, and might be falling by Dec/Jan anyway.  ENSO is looking very Nada-ish.  So early call is a very back-and-forth winter...some winter for the West and some winter for the East.  Not a terribly "out on a limb" idea, but just looks that way right now.  The Canadian shows some promise early for the East and then switches the cold pattern to the West for Jan/Feb....Wait?  What?  Didn't we just have that winter pattern?! My guess would be cold early for the East....switch to the West for mid-winter...back East as the QBO tanks.  And one last nugget,  I may have a dog in the fight now when it comes to the northern Rockies' winters...more on that later.  Been super busy lately.  It may very well be that I am not a regular again until mid-July.  After that, hopefully I will be back in a normal routine.

NMME's basically look like a neutral though positive ENSO into O-N-D.One odd ball would be GOES-5,starting a potential Nina into fall,so you know this would be an "AN",2M look.But as always you should be skeptical in long range forecast of seasonals,sure you think the same way.Plus this would be more fall than winter

East Asia had a trough go through a day or two ago,i'd think there would be a system coming through potentially effecting the Valley past the mid month even tho the models don't really show it right now,we'll see.

The MJO possibly get into the IO possibly towards the end of the month,though this looks even conflicting1578031027_RealTimemultivariateMJOPhaseSpaceDiagramsMichaelJVentricePhD.png.ad41958b75080d08d81c309162a2bce6.png

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Winter will probably depend on the solar cycle. Increasingly I believe the climate change signal is too hard to overcome, esp in the South. Deep solar minimum is our only hope. 

Sounds bleak I know. So was the end of the Last Jedi (just watched again). Episode 9 comes out in December. Maybe it, and winter, will have a happy ending.

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6 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Winter will probably depend on the solar cycle. Increasingly I believe the climate change signal is too hard to overcome, esp in the South. Deep solar minimum is our only hope. 

Sounds bleak I know. So was the end of the Last Jedi (just watched again). Episode 9 comes out in December. Maybe it, and winter, will have a happy ending.

You are a brave man watching the Last Jedi more than once.  I am a huge Star Wars fan...but if this winter is anything like that movie, gonna be a dud.  LOL.  I actually like Rogue One and even the somewhat maligned Solo.  I think we are in good hands with the last movie though.  Anyway, I still think an AMO flip will help us in the long run.  Until then, going to be tough sledding.  We may all be old men before winter returns!  

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Low solar cycle though is low is diving down this winter and more into next winter,surprised though it's lasting as long as it's showing,suspect it's not going to be right

solar sunspot models prediction   Google Search.png

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Back into the earlier century sunspots were more short lived it seems.They generally seemed to last no longer than a couple years at low min.As we seemed to get into the late 2000's sunspots min have seemed to last longer than the past,maybe the models are wrong most certainlywith the upcoming one,but is this a trend we are seeing?

solar sunspot models prediction   Google Search (1).png

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On 5/13/2019 at 12:18 AM, jaxjagman said:

Back into the earlier century sunspots were more short lived it seems.They generally seemed to last no longer than a couple years at low min.As we seemed to get into the late 2000's sunspots min have seemed to last longer than the past,maybe the models are wrong most certainlywith the upcoming one,but is this a trend we are seeing?

solar sunspot models prediction   Google Search (1).png

I think, and someone that has more experience in this can chime in, but that bottoming out of the cycles length as we get enter a grand minimum 

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Next solar min will be deeper and longer than forecast. Dalton seems like a reasonable comparison. I'm not ready to buy Maunder min. If that happens, I'm not far enough south. Love snow but hate cold!

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In the short term, looks like it is about to get hot.  Just glanced through one of Robert's posts on WxSouth on FB.  100s in the Piedmont?!  Yikes!

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ECMWF had that 2m stuff overnight; however, it has a hot bias. Figure Robert knows that though. 

Bigger crap news is high dewpoints all over next week. Hopefully that Day 7-8 front is stronger and knocks down dews. I would love to keep the weather from Mon/Tue this week. Endless fall with daylight evenings!

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I am 100% OK with the Euro having a hot bias...I want no part of that output from overnight.  Too early in the season for the furnace.  

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The NASA climate scientist whose panel I attended last year said the solar cycles were looking like the lowest activity both at peak and minimum since those that happened during the Little Ice Age.  She said the current downward peak would likely happen in Winter 2019-20.  I think she said there were 50 years of minimums like this in a row during the time of the LIA from roughly 1650-1700. She said we are basically in a 20 year valley right now. The Little Ice Age was started most likely via volcanic eruptions but possibly the minimal solar activity extended it. Apparently low sunspots should produce colder winter in Northern Europe, and the continental U.S. but warmer than average in Southern Europe/Canada/Greenland. We see that last year the low activity did nothing for winter/cold here as there are exceptions to almost every weather rule it seems.

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If we don't see any rain upcoming the next couple days we probably wont see much of anything until the week after next when the models are showing a trough going through East Asia in 3 to 4 days.The Euro has a ridge centered into the Valley around the latter part of next weekend maybe into the following week

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18 minutes ago, John1122 said:

It was mid-summer hot today, I already dread the rest of summer and am looking for that first big cold front of early fall.

Yeah i'm with you,i don't have a great feeling about this summer.Even the MJO where it sits at right now we shouldn't be looking at any SER

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This pattern seems to be more ENSO driven.Most analogs would show the Valley to be more into a dirty ridge with plenty of QPF'S as the MJO comes off phase 7, with lag time.Surely don't look like it.The MJO is fixing to really slow down by the looks before it gets into the IO and into the IO so we'll see what happens later on

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Nothing but a suck pattern upcoming,ridge even looks stronger from a 588dm to a 591 dm tonight,,argggg.We should have a good system though into the 1st week of June,it should kick the ridge off to the east,there is nothing dirty about it in the mean time

ecmwf_z500a_us_9.png

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You want a trough to teleconnect with the Valley from East Asia this would be it,sad thing it's far out and will probably shift into China,but this

would be potentially nice 

 

 

ecmwf_z500a_wpac_10.png

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Euro continues to show a stronger ridge.The PNA would suggest a SER on the GEFS.The MJO yesterday entered phase 8 which shouldn't be a SER though depending on lag time.Tomorrow there is a trough going through East Asia with an Upper low into East China so there would seem to be an Upper low into the Upper Plains/OV with some sorta trough in the east,makes me think the GFS might be more right with the thermals.If for some reason the Euro is right there should be some risk of breaking high temps as well as high/lows into the late next weekend into the first part of the next week for parts of the Valley

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Euro continues to show a stronger ridge.The PNA would suggest a SER on the GEFS.The MJO yesterday entered phase 8 which shouldn't be a SER though depending on lag time.Tomorrow there is a trough going through East Asia with an Upper low into East China so there would seem to be an Upper low into the Upper Plains/OV with some sorta trough in the east,makes me think the GFS might be more right with the thermals.If for some reason the Euro is right there should be some risk of breaking high temps as well as high/lows into the late next weekend into the first part of the next week for parts of the Valley


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