Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Spring/Summer 2019 medium to long range discussion.


John1122
 Share

Recommended Posts

Definitely can see model bias in they AM's model runs.  Winter precip threats on the 6z GFS(progressive) and rain on the Euro(tends to be amped a bit much).  Though, just looking at recent events and the trends for those, the Euro is probably more likely to be correct.  The CMC also has a threat as well.  If any of these slps take the low road, then they will need to be watched.   Spring systems are notoriously late bloomers on modeling.  Though the past two or three suites are definitely looking more liquid than frozen.  An active STJ looks to persist.  Speaking of model busts(I had mentioned this earlier), the Mountain West was expecting a lower than normal water year.  I saw a pick of a fly shop in Montana with snow half way up the side of the building.  It is going to be a good water year out there.  Just a couple of years ago, much of the nation was experiencing severe drought.  The Tennessee Valley has often been a place of feast/famine regarding precip...great example of this over the past five years.  My least favorite event is a moderate La Nina summer....looks like we avoid that this upcoming summer.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The 18z NAM was snowy. The 00z looks less so. It's going to be a bone chilling rain. It's 40 degrees here with a sharp north wind. 

snku_acc.us_ov.png

Ready for this to end.Winter really sucked basically here.The whole Nino was more Nina all winter.Basically we had three dustings :(If it snows like your map shows this would be the best snows all winter,,,blah

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There seems to be a potential wet pattern upcoming.The RRWT has been doing a good job with rain fall in the Valley for awhile.When the MJO gets into P3 this is typically a wet pattern in the Valley with possible convection, until it gets into the COD,then who knows.But you factor in lag time the mid month.This looks like a wet period upcoming.I posted a system coming off East Asia in the severe thread which looks pretty strong upcoming which would effect us mid month,we'll see

RRWT   Consonant Chaos.png

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fortunately LR modeling has been undependable to say the least lately....Why would I say that?  Because LR modeling is not warm right now.  Keep in mind we are talking about this relative to spring temps.  Not talking snow.  Not talking frozen precip.  Cold rain.  Cold, cold rain.  Maybe the Canadian will be right?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Rain and snow mix in the NE TN and SW VA(assuming SE KY as well) this AM with some warm advection type, short-lived stuff.  Just looking at LR modeling, looks like we indeed might be in the middle of a pattern reshuffle.  We likely see 4-6 days of AN heights upcoming followed by more a more amplified troughs rotating through.  Big ridge in the West.  This continues a pattern of LR modeling struggling recently, i.e. referencing the long predicted cold pattern that never came during winter.  I don't think the reshuffle is a slam dunk, but it certainly appears that the ENSO state might now be coupling with the spring atmospheric pattern.  I think the rainy pattern continues, but getting rid of the persistent ridging which has enhanced precip would be nice.  Again, since we are out of winter, I am just talking pattern stuff and not snow.  Do I think higher elevation snow is over? No.  It is not uncommon for the last snows to fall well into April above 5,000'.  I may be wrong...but what I am seeing after a warm week next week is a cooler pattern.  We may indeed finish BN for March at TRI.  Our monthly temp average so far is 36.9 which would currently be colder than the overall temp average(entire month) of any of the individual months of meteorological winter.  Probably won't stay that way w a forecast of near 70 on Sunday...but interesting number to cherry pick this AM and gives a good idea of just how cold this first week of March has been.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On "positive" note, that great winter pattern that many were expecting during late winter(including me) looks like it will finally arrive during mid-spring.   Well part of it anyway as the Pacific is about cooperate in placing a trough into the EC(big ridge out West) making our weather that much more miserable.  Excessive cold rain was not enough salt in the wound.  Now, we have the opportunity for excessive, really cold rain.  So excited about this pattern change.  So, so.....so....excited.    

giphy.gif

 

  • Sad 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

On "positive" note, that great winter pattern that many were expecting during late winter(including me) looks like it will finally arrive during mid-spring.   Well part of it anyway as the Pacific is about cooperate in placing a trough into the EC(big ridge out West) making our weather that much more miserable.  Excessive cold rain was not enough salt in the wound.  Now, we have the opportunity for excessive, really cold rain.  So excited about this pattern change.  So, so.....so....excited.    

giphy.gif

 

We pretty well knew this would happen, unfortunately. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 I'm kind of optimistic we have maybe a week or two of it, then get some warmer weather. And at least with a trough we get more movement (aka more sunny days) than if we are just south of an endless screaming ST jet. 

Also, GFS has been consistently day 10+ showing rain up into Canada. That's gotta be warmer than being just 200 miles south of the R/S line. Euro isn't quite there yet on its runs, but the control looks mildish:

giphy.gif 

EPS looks like it wants to go warm too after day 10:

giphy.gif 

But as Tellico will say, 24hrs = long range this winter, so who knows. 

You have to think though, no SSW, April around the corner, we have to have some warmer weather sooner or later. Crankyweatherdude has been pretty good with his analysis of the Pac jet (whether predictive skill or just observation of reality) and he seems to think the flip comes after the mid month blip:

 

 

2019-03-11_08-03-57.png

I've been waiting for one of these big red/ yellow surges to show up on these maps. Hopefully it makes it back to our hemisphere. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Both the GEFS and EPS ensembles look a bit better this AM as Holston noted.  Looks a little more like a zonal pattern will eventually try to undercut the western ridge....cause we know that western ridge has verified like zero times since mid-January.  So, it well might be that the models pulled another head fake towards a cooler pattern.  I probably shouldn't have bit...but it happens.  Definitely agree that ensembles look improved today.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree with Carvers (last two posts now) that March may close out cooler than normal. However it'll be close after all the sloshing around. 

Then I look for April warmer than normal. Euro weeklies last Thursday keep it cool a few weeks; however, they have been unreliable for months. Latest Euro ensembles end milder, and Euro monthly is mild April; perhaps weeklies will follow warmer tonight. CFS warms up April; it's been able to sniff out the shorter cold periods.

CrankyWx is probably right about the Pac jet. A look at the Japanese satellite shows convection already blowing up again in the Indian Ocean, bound for the warm maritime continent. All that junk in colder phases at/east of the Dateline should have a fleeting impact only.

Oh yeah the door is about shut on SSW. Upper strato is trying to warm. However the lower layers still have a positive wind. We're good. Start spring baby!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On "positive" note, that great winter pattern that many were expecting during late winter(including me) looks like it will finally arrive during mid-spring.   Well part of it anyway as the Pacific is about cooperate in placing a trough into the EC(big ridge out West) making our weather that much more miserable.  Excessive cold rain was not enough salt in the wound.  Now, we have the opportunity for excessive, really cold rain.  So excited about this pattern change.  So, so.....so....excited.    
giphy.gif&key=e8f6381c39183c82608fa2e1b31b5064694be222162fa617284913409471baf7
 
Personally, I like the cool temps, so bring it!

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

3k NAM (only the best) rather excited about LeConte tonight. Tauntauns might be out, lol

giphy.gif 

Some T-storms showing up on some models for this PM too. Wonder if we will see any thunder/ hail/ graupel. MRX:

this afternoon...a short wave trough digs in and convective energy increases.
Current forecast seems to have a decent handle on this, and still
appears there could be some pea size hail/graupel with the
heavier showers and possibly even a few rumbles of thunder.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, Jed33 said:

Just had one of those storms roll through town here about an hour ago. Several close strikes of lightning and close to 15min of heavy rain mixed with pea sized hail.

I saw the elevated DBZ passing over Morristown and the KMRX radar site and wondered just what the hell was happening under it. I don't believe I heard a single rumble of thunder ~30 miles east.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

If I got such as a flurry of what was depicted I'd have a smile. No other globals I've seen support it but what're you gonna do. The global ensemble system does throw some of us in the far northeast a bone but it's mainly focused to the blue ridge and east. Other than the obvious issues of this taking place in broad daylight during April of all months it seems the storm will more than likely stray too far east to significantly affect us. Let's cross our fingers and hope for more support from model guidance.  

Gimli Snow.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Mr Bob unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...