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40/70 Benchmark

March Disco

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro says congrats on days and days of highs in the 30s/40s with 0F dewpoints.

 

At least the inside of the car will be warm.

Terrible. 

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Im down in Maryland right now.  This warmth feels so good.  Meanwhile looking back home 36.6F and only got to 42F yesterday.  Thought this was going to be our 2 days of good melting.  This pack is never going to go away!  Today is over 4 months of snowcover and the deer in my pasture are getting thinner and are just eating bark off of the apple trees.  Wish this thaw would have opened up a few grass patches but not going to happen.  Just quickly reading the posts looks like no warmth in the future?

Yesterdays drive down, snow patches to just north of NYC.  Green grass in Baltimore but greenup seems to be behind even down here.  Sometimes forsythia has started by now but I see no signs.  550 mile trip back to snow and mud tomorrow.

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1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

Im down in Maryland right now.  This warmth feels so good.  Meanwhile looking back home 36.6F and only got to 42F yesterday.  Thought this was going to be our 2 days of good melting.  This pack is never going to go away!  Today is over 4 months of snowcover and the deer in my pasture are getting thinner and are just eating bark off of the apple trees.  Wish this thaw would have opened up a few grass patches but not going to happen.  Just quickly reading the posts looks like no warmth in the future?

Yesterdays drive down, snow patches to just north of NYC.  Green grass in Baltimore but greenup seems to be behind even down here.  Sometimes forsythia has started by now but I see no signs.  550 mile trip back to snow and mud tomorrow.

 This is the only time of year where the Mid Atlantic is appealing.

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

End of the month looks like a battle ground pattern nearby. Maybe we can grab something then. 

The para GFS wasn't actually too far from meaningful impact earlier than that ... I mean, strong +PNA ridge out west and 174 hours out in time are correctable - but I know I know ...such lucid objective reasoning has no basis in a collective of jilted winter lovers, huh

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

The para GFS wasn't actually too far earlier than that ... I mean, strong +PNA ridge out west and 174 hours out in time are correctable - but I know I know ...such lucid objective reasoning has no basis in a collective of jilted winter lovers, huh

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

 Yeah. I mean like you said we are just loosely talking about it, but for the time being I wouldn't say this is a warm and dry pattern right now. 

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The para GFS wasn't actually too far earlier than that ... I mean, strong +PNA ridge out west and 174 hours out in time are correctable - but I know I know ...such lucid objective reasoning has no basis in a collective of jilted winter lovers, huh

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

All sarcasm aside, the highly meridonal PNA in conjunction with the changing wavelengths screams short lead time to me....ie, don't be suprised if something quite impactful pops up at 72 hours.

Would I bet on that, no....oops, already have.

Damn it-

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 One thing that really came to light this year for me, was how easy measuring was due to the lack of coastal storms. My neighborhood is virtually impossible to get a good measurement during coastal storms. This year was a rather satisfying pleasure of measuring without second-guessing myself. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

 One thing that really came to light this year for me, was how easy measuring was due to the lack of coastal storms. My neighborhood is virtually impossible to get a good measurement during coastal storms. This year was a rather satisfying pleasure of measuring without second-guessing myself. 

:weenie:

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5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

 Yeah. I mean like you said we are just loosely talking about it, but for the time being I wouldn't say this is a warm and dry pattern right now. 

Right - 

it's why I don't - personally - carry any illusions about what the last two weeks of this month are likely to sensibly/operationally be like.  No lawns greening prior to April 1 I'm "partially" checked out ha!

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

:weenie:

I was hoping for a powder blizzard where shit island would come in with 3” for KBOS. :lol: 

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16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

End of the month looks like a battle ground pattern nearby. Maybe we can grab something then. 

Might as well...as soon as I saw the model guidance shift to all that cold in SE Canada with sneaky highs, I punted on any fantasy of 65F tulip-prancing days....so it's either we try and sneak in a snow event or deal with dogshit (cold and dry or 37F and NE winds with sneaky highs). I'll take the snow over either of them....even if it is a 4 inch slop storm.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Might as well...as soon as I saw the model guidance shift to all that cold in SE Canada with sneaky highs, I punted on any fantasy of 65F tulip-prancing days....so it's either we try and sneak in a snow event or deal with dogshit (cold and dry or 37F and NE winds with sneaky highs). I'll take the snow over either of them....even if it is a 4 inch slop storm.

I mean if it’s cold, might as well. Nothing worse than -20 at 850 with highs in the 30s.  There’s nothing worse than that. 

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 Yesterday and today are two annoying fails as far as warm weather goes.  It’s warm but man, if we had some sunshine it could’ve been really nice. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I mean if it’s cold, might as well. Nothing worse than -20 at 850 with highs in the 30s.  There’s nothing worse than that. 

in my little weird obsession I'm sooo buckin' for a 16" late blue bonnet to cap this season with an average number despite the personal violation in how it was delivered - 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

 Yesterday and today are two annoying fails as far as warm weather goes.  It’s warm but man, if we had some sunshine it could’ve been really nice. 

Yup ... connected the dots on that facet yesterday 'round 1pm with slate gray skies - ... I simply murmured in the internal monologue, 'what a bullshit bust'

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

in my little weird obsession I'm sooo buckin' for a 16" late blue bonnet to cap this season with an average number despite the personal violation in how it was delivered - 

Would be fitting. I actually remember how annoyed I was From march 97. We had a cold month with a 5” deal I think prior to 3/10 and a big NW gale, but it was frustrating. Also a frustrating winter on the coast. Then it all changed on 3/31. Gosh I still get chills thinking about that storm. Nothing will beat that for me.

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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 Yesterday and today are two annoying fails as far as warm weather goes.  It’s warm but man, if we had some sunshine it could’ve been really nice. 

It's 45 and full overcast here.  

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32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Would be fitting. I actually remember how annoyed I was From march 97. We had a cold month with a 5” deal I think prior to 3/10 and a big NW gale, but it was frustrating. Also a frustrating winter on the coast. Then it all changed on 3/31. Gosh I still get chills thinking about that storm. Nothing will beat that for me.

I know... - solid pun by the way.

But, for me, the week surrounding the event was an incredible journey and education in operational Meteorology.  If I recall, there was an early model run ... perhaps a D8 depiction from the (then) MRF, indicating what actually came close to verifying:  a deep closed 500mb anomaly passing quintessentially underneath Long Island.. But it faded too far east on Tuesday and Wednesday's runs.  

Harvey Leonard comes on air Wednesday evening and I recall his words still coherently in my memory, " ...Should this ever pass under Long Island..."   It was vindication for my own insights at that time, just hearing a legend mention it in those turn of phrases.  

I don't recall what the models really looked like Thursday and Friday ...those were typically pub hop social nights pulling easy distraction, and between the Old Worthin' House and the Green Shamrock, with no classes scheduled until 2 pm on Thursday and none on Friday (what I'd give to have that era back), pretty much those two days were a weekly memory gap to put it mildly.  

Come Saturday morning ... typically keyed the Lab and got caught up with models through a haze of torpid awareness coffee and a lingering headache. That day, it was already 63 F up on the station monitor and it was 11:55 am - the storm would strike overnight Sunday into Monday.  

You know how it goes ... 63 with March 30th sun strength up on a university campus... The dorm halls were burst out onto the commons with typical shenanigans of the 19 thru 24 year old age group [ enter specifics here ].  Frisbees floating over woman prostrated to blankets in two-pieces exposing bums far to delicious to have the brains they had, while dudes that probably look back from today's temporal perch and internally say, "...why did it play it that way - I'd give anything to have that back" as they twitch their eyes in favor of their square-butt middle aged nag of a wife.  

Oh, jesus... where was I.  Anyway, so I'm walking over University Ave bridge there en route to Fox Tower dining hall for brunch, and the sky was sparsely strewn with shallow cu leaning S, while the air beneath waved like you see over an African savanna.  There was no wind.  63 ... may as well have been 82 with that sun, and as I walked passed these scenes and doing the occasional head-nod-wut-up to randoms I recognized, I remember thinking just how little anyone in that setting had any clue what was about to befall them.  Because those weather charts that morning showed a deep closed anomaly passing quintessentially underneath Long Island.  

Year's later I learned that the entire seven or so days of the run up to that event, ...NWS internal products had a lot of "smear" in the ensembles back west during some of those earlier mid-week cycles that portrayed the thing as stretched and amplifying toward NS/way out there... 

My life has been an uninspired failure ever since.. But I still have those memories to hide in whenever the former realization tries to downtrodden my days.  

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One nitpick Tip,

The storm started on a Monday morning (as rain everywhere including ORH hills) but it changed to snow and the height was Monday night into early Tuesday morning....not Sunday night into Monday morning.

But yeah, otherwise your recollection of the weather is spot-on.....I was at the driving range the day before practicing for high school golf team tryouts that were to occur a week later....hitting golfballs in short sleeves with temps in the 60s and late March sunshine. I had the same exact thought too about the people around me...."I wonder if these schmucks all at the driving range know we're about to get like 10" of heavy wet snow tomorrow/tomorrow night?"....of course, I had no idea 10 inches of paste would turn into a 33 inch blizzard.

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Ahhh...so it comes again...

My ULowell memories are even hazier...Many memories of grey, damp days with interspersed bright, sunshiny days of yore.  A few nice snowstorms.  Hurricane Bob (I lived in Lowell during the summer as well). Getting out of the city right before the 1993 Superstorm to fly out to BC for skiing

The Pawtucketville Social Club...

 

By the time 1997 rolled around I was living in Gardner, MA and I measured 36" on the porch of my apartment

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4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Ahhh...so it comes again...

My ULowell memories are even hazier...Many memories of grey, damp days with interspersed bright, sunshiny days of yore.  A few nice snowstorms.  Hurricane Bob (I lived in Lowell during the summer as well). Getting out of the city right before the 1993 Superstorm to fly out to BC for skiing

The Pawtucketville Social Club...

 

By the time 1997 rolled around I was living in Gardner, MA and I measured 36" on the porch of my apartment

1997 was fun. I remember 7/3/97 vividly. I was walking to a restaurant with my mom, dad, and two brothers in West Hartford before we took off to my sisters in Windsor Locks. During the eating session tornado watches were hoisted and I was excited. I was looking out the window and go extremely excited b/c the sky looked incredibly dark to the west. People thought I was nuts and I said look how dark the sky is...they told me it was a tinted window :angry: 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

One nitpick Tip,

The storm started on a Monday morning (as rain everywhere including ORH hills) but it changed to snow and the height was Monday night into early Tuesday morning....not Sunday night into Monday morning.

But yeah, otherwise your recollection of the weather is spot-on.....I was at the driving range the day before practicing for high school golf team tryouts that were to occur a week later....hitting golfballs in short sleeves with temps in the 60s and late March sunshine. I had the same exact thought too about the people around me...."I wonder if these schmucks all at the driving range know we're about to get like 10" of heavy wet snow tomorrow/tomorrow night?"....of course, I had no idea 10 inches of paste would turn into a 33 inch blizzard.

Ah yeah, right ... You know me I can be rather lazy with dates... :) 

So everything I said, just move it up one day - haha

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I actually remember coming home from Easter and wind shifted north. We had a frontal passage late aftn, but not before an amazing day temp wise. It wasn’t a cold N wind yet by any means, but I remember sort of hoping that cold would overachieve.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I actually remember coming home from Easter and wind shifted north. We had a frontal passage late aftn, but not before an amazing day temp wise. It wasn’t a cold N wind yet by any means, but I remember sort of hoping that cold would overachieve.

I remember the next morning, we were like 36F and rain on the way to school and I was hoping that it was a good sign that it would change over faster than expected. The forecast wasn't for us to flip to snow in ORH until mid to late afternoon. By 10am, we were flipping over so it turned out to be a good sign in hindsight.

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I remember the next morning, we were like 36F and rain on the way to school and I was hoping that it was a good sign that it would change over faster than expected. The forecast wasn't for us to flip to snow in ORH until mid to late afternoon. By 10am, we were flipping over so it turned out to be a good sign in hindsight.

It went from driving downpours to parachutes and IP even where I was in TAN. Couldn’t believe it. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean if it’s cold, might as well. Nothing worse than -20 at 850 with highs in the 30s.  There’s nothing worse than that. 

Nothing worse for skiing either.  This time of year needs warmth or snow.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

One nitpick Tip,

The storm started on a Monday morning (as rain everywhere including ORH hills) but it changed to snow and the height was Monday night into early Tuesday morning....not Sunday night into Monday morning.

But yeah, otherwise your recollection of the weather is spot-on.....I was at the driving range the day before practicing for high school golf team tryouts that were to occur a week later....hitting golfballs in short sleeves with temps in the 60s and late March sunshine. I had the same exact thought too about the people around me...."I wonder if these schmucks all at the driving range know we're about to get like 10" of heavy wet snow tomorrow/tomorrow night?"....of course, I had no idea 10 inches of paste would turn into a 33 inch blizzard.

What about his recollection of frisbees floating over guys butts while what uppe’d the dudes? Spot on?

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