Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,514
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Raifu
    Newest Member
    Raifu
    Joined
40/70 Benchmark

March Disco

Recommended Posts

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

EPS still banging it for big boy on 21st

Definitely weaker sig, but I expect it to change. It's certainly far from a lock...hopefully people aren't locking it. Until then, we melt.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely weaker sig, but I expect it to change. It's certainly far from a lock...hopefully people aren't locking it. Until then, we melt.

Sometimes winter ends with a whimper.  Sometimes they start and continue that way, too.

#winter2019

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely weaker sig, but I expect it to change. It's certainly far from a lock...hopefully people aren't locking it. Until then, we melt.

12z was a lot stronger but we won’t have clarity before another week goes by.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

12z was a lot stronger but we won’t have clarity before another week goes by.

Not at all, I just hope some aren't thinking it is a certainty. Maybe one person does.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not at all, I just hope some aren't thinking it is a certainty. Maybe one person does.

Ya, I’d say as long as the amplitude behind the indices changing isn’t weakened there will be a storm 

 

im on to spring down here and I focus more toward mountain elevation snow now anyway and they would likely be a beneficiary in the future storm anyway 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

She coming 

ERy4OaP.png

She always says she's gonna come 7-10 days out, until she gets shy and changes her mind.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely weaker sig, but I expect it to change. It's certainly far from a lock...hopefully people aren't locking it. Until then, we melt.

I'm locking it it.  Massive destruction everywhere.  Ice storm, fer sure.  We blizzard.  We snow.  We rain.   It's all the weather.  I will tell all my friends and hype.  I will start thread.  Hype.  Hype.  And then hype some more.  GFS will own the Euro.  Euro is king.  GFS is useless and will cave on schedule.  It's all the feels.  I am expert.

  • Haha 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wouldn't shock me if Thursday ends up warmer than Friday. It should at least be the nicer afternoon with mucho sun.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Wouldn’t shock me If north New England becomes sick of weekly or bi- weekly rainers and big snow melt by April 10

you mean climo?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Wouldn't shock me if Thursday ends up warmer than Friday. It should at least be the nicer afternoon with mucho sun.

Yeah...Friday ain't looking too good...I think it was either you or Scoots who referred to a lot of debris reducing the solar heating Friday.  Thurs could be a top 5 day of the year so far.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah...Friday ain't looking too good...I think it was either you or Scoots who referred to a lot of debris reducing the solar heating Friday.  Thurs could be a top 5 day of the year so far.

 

Yeah Friday may be dirty in terms of clouds. But it will feel dewy. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah...Friday ain't looking too good...I think it was either you or Scoots who referred to a lot of debris reducing the solar heating Friday.  Thurs could be a top 5 day of the year so far.

 

Scoots

It'll be warm either way with some semblance of dews, but the sped up fropa means more clouds and showers. If we get a period of sun in the afternoon though it could still torch 60-70F. Still on the warm side Saturday too as CAA is meh behind the front.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Scoots

It'll be warm either way with some semblance of dews, but the sped up fropa means more clouds and showers. If we get a period of sun in the afternoon though it could still torch 60-70F. Still on the warm side Saturday too as CAA is meh behind the front.

melt it out and then freeze it up for a bit, then melt it out some more.  that's how its done.  should be a good week of some slow melting.  12" now in the fields an probably 14-18 in the woods.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Won’t be any refreezing after Wed nite. 48-60 hours of high dews , wet , fogged up windows and wet animal smells of spring outside 

Petrified dog dookies thawing out and coming back to life

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Won’t be any refreezing after Wed nite. 48-60 hours of high dews , wet , fogged up windows and wet animal smells of spring outside 

Peepers might start peeping.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe it was just a hiccup run .. .

We've seen our fair share of those this winter season, too.  It's just the hiccups have always been opposite, where one run shows the bomb, ... annnd immediately ensues the sore butt truth.  Mm, yeah - I think I'd rather show a bomb for many runs and have the hiccup be less before returning.

But the following pertains to the pattern handling.  Eesh.  In this case, we have (at least) the GEFs with a clad continuity for a robust +PNA to (perhaps) end the season, coming in with still cold in the bank (so to speak) and flo' relaxation on the 00z suite.

Mostly, the period in question, ~ the 17th thru perhaps the 25th of March, was too far out in time to expect much of any cinema from the models..  The 12z Euro run's D10, yesterday, landed the 20th of March with a tantalizing impression, and the movie reel seemed to start spinning... 

The GEFs, they're still robust as of last night's 00z, ...although, to be fair, the CDC was always much more impressive than the CPC. That may or may not be important, because the former deals in low level wind anomalies, and the latter ... mid level geopotential height anomalies.  If one knows much at all about theoretical Meteorology, those two are intrinsically linked. It may just be that a +1 SD at CPC results in a +3 SD over at CDC ... I dunno, but there is difference in the relative magnitude of each.  

Damn, I wanted this to be brief... but, I was not expecting the Euro to shirk the outlook as bad as it did, out of seemingly nowhere, as the operational version did at 00z.  It doesn't even give the 20th a chance, despite the week+ worth of every available guidance there is known to the arts and crafts of deterministic meteorology ... hamming the interval of interest with continuity ... just when the meat of it comes into range it starts pulling the plug, not on an event mind you, but the pattern its self.  

The EPS (from what I can gather) didn't look much different either; it too, appears abruptly eager to use whatever super-synoptic scale forcing it can to maintain the western ridge WHILE propagating it east in such a fashion as to suggest it'll be 90 F at UML like it was on March 30th 1998!   ... This is a megalodon continuity shift, and... one that if it were going to take place, probably does effect the nearer term chances in a negative way.  

Now... looking around... the only two factors (well, the third being a dark unappreciated humor ) that stand out to me are:

a .. spring.  I did mentioned this last week at one time or the other, that as we progress through March the seasonal dilation r-waves starts to skew things - mainly because they change so quickly from the disruptive influence of seasonality. 

b .. the MJO... it has not been very effective coupling with the atmosphere during the previous three months of winter.  We've seen robust wave spaces emerge and propagate on either side of the WH ... the significance or even detection on forcing the flows, subsequently, have been dubious at best.  I mean, it is a factorable influence... But, it's whether it is constructive or destructively interfering with the surrounding super-synoptic scope/scale that's about as important as the wave space its self.  It's been a winter out of phase with the MJO much of the time... Right now and recently, it's been plowing/unfurling through late phase 3/4 and looking destined to end up in 5/6 over the next week to 10 days, which is perfect WRONG relative to the GEFs +PNA.   [EDIT: it looks like it's collapsing, okay... ]

c .. the cosmic dildo.  this is the factor that steve and ray and other's cannot see eye-to-eye about... I do not wish to be drawn into that debate, ...I'm not sure I fully understand either sides position very clearly.  But, it seems to me that the best way to define this winter thus far is, ' f'ed if you do, f'ed if don't '  . But  this insidiously works both ways?  ...it seems the CD theory of everything (eh hm) ... really just attacks one on a personal level... while apparently doing so ubiquitously (fascinating actually).  So, part of that is being lucid and right, and still ending up wrong, while some how under-performing.  

Kidding of course... but anyway... Not sure what to think of that Euro - interesting

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×