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40/70 Benchmark

March Disco

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That's a real nice look for next weekend on the EPS, Like to see it stay on the ensemble models the next few days and get the Op runs to bite too.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Much better run this go around :lol:.

Still think it's a mixed precip event everywhere, as the pattern is the same type of look.

IMG_2338.thumb.PNG.696b775c142163062c3a7ff3e2d810a4.PNG

Sweet!  Less then 0.1"

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43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s nit exactly the same look. I like the battle of airmasses playing out as we head later in the season. I wouldnt expect a big one, but patterns like this have brought pretty larger events. 

Fair enough....hopefully we get more mass flux with the increased solar irradiance and approach of spring. Always bowling ball season, too.

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17 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Only 240 hrs away, lock it up...

Jan_07_1996_comparison.jpg.a55d60b96f1f256ee7ae9decc1cfc99d.jpg

 

The Euro is still playing with us, but we aren't falling for it.     :lmao:  Especially after the 192 hr "lock-up" it gave us last Tuesday.

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5 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Those results are fairly similar for different heights and different lead times too.

Are those based upon global mean/averaged error... ? 

Are those assessed in quadrature -

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Are those based upon global mean/averaged error... ? 

Are those assessed in quadrature -

NHem 20-80 latitude, but if you drill down to something smaller like the PNA region the same pattern holds. 

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

They don't have a domain for the Northeast snow weenie belt. 

Ha that's really what the accuracy questions want to know...create a graph with the most accurate snow map models between the months of October and April.  No one cares if it nails H5 (who lives there?) in July ;).

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Ha that's really what the accuracy questions want to know...

I wonder how useful verification of such a small domain would be anyway. I hesitate to use the L word, but there is a lot of nuance that can lead to large errors locally. 

Also, post-day 7 if you're going to use the GFS use the 18z run. :ph34r:

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EPS def still with the Mar 6 threat and it looked better for Mar 1-2...colder. 

Mar 1-2 may actually have a lead wave too...it's on a couple pieces of guidance and it could be robust enough that it is the main show...we often don't see two parts to a system and one of the pieces of energy becomes the dominant processor of the baroclinic zone. 

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22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS def still with the Mar 6 threat and it looked better for Mar 1-2...colder. 

Mar 1-2 may actually have a lead wave too...it's on a couple pieces of guidance and it could be robust enough that it is the main show...we often don't see two parts to a system and one of the pieces of energy becomes the dominant processor of the baroclinic zone. 

To me, EPS Mar 1-2 threat looked warmer at 850 compared to 12z yesterday.

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

NHem 20-80 latitude, but if you drill down to something smaller like the PNA region the same pattern holds. 

heh... I find that hard to swallow but I guess ...

I have noticed a demonstrative and more frequent tendency than the GFS cluster, to overly amplify troughs beyond D6 in the Euro.  Period.  Not sure why that is never showing up in this pedestal adoration ceremony whenever the subject matter comes up.  Guess I'm just seeing things :)

I would be suspicious of that amplitude in the extended on this 12z run folks.  It "looks" like the same antic, of taking whatever residual "dent" it has available at D8.5 from up over the high plains, and drilling a hole in the Earth with it by 10.

But ...hey, one of these times it'll nail that - maybe this will be it.

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16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh... I find that hard to swallow but I guess ...

I have noticed a demonstrative and more frequent tendency than the GFS cluster, to overly amplify troughs beyond D6 in the Euro.  Period.  Not sure why that is never showing up in this pedestal adoration ceremony whenever the subject matter comes up.  Guess I'm just seeing things :)

I would be suspicious of that amplitude in the extended on this 12z run folks.  It "looks" like the same antic, of taking whatever residual "dent" it has available at D8.5 from up over the high plains, and drilling a hole in the Earth with it by 10.

But ...hey, one of these times it'll nail that - maybe this will be it.

Yes, the bias beyond day 6 (actually at all lead times) is for low heights. So the Euro may over-amplify, but the GFS does it too, only worse.

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The Euro more often than not has the larger hemispheric pattern more correct than the other guidance. That's an indisputable fact. 

It may have some issues with East Coast cyclogenesis, but I would not be surprised one bit if the latest research shows that to not be the case either. I'm just not up to date on that so I can't confirm one way or the other.

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36 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The Euro more often than not has the larger hemispheric pattern more correct than the other guidance. That's an indisputable fact. 

It may have some issues with East Coast cyclogenesis, but I would not be surprised one bit if the latest research shows that to not be the case either. I'm just not up to date on that so I can't confirm one way or the other.

Historically it has performed far superior to other guidance during our east coast storms in my own forecasting experience...almost every single "biggie". It was kind of "meh" during the 1/4 storm last winter but then it absolutely schooled other guidance in the 3/7-8 storm...so much that I remember we were debating a BTV AFD that discounted the southeast solution of the Euro in that system about 3 days out when it was an outlier. 

We haven't really had any this winter aside from a couple late redevelopers....so kind of hard to use this winter as a barometer. It looks like it will lose to the GFS in back to back open wave events, though we wouldn't classify them as EC cyclogensis. 

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

Yes, the bias beyond day 6 (actually at all lead times) is for low heights. So the Euro may over-amplify, but the GFS does it too, only worse.

Well ... actually ( this is what I get for jumping into a conversation late...)  I wasn't paying attention to your product there, and that it's pretty clearly "5D NHEM"  ... I do still wonder if they run those products in quadrature ...

I guess some lingering question (also) as to whether that 5 days is the mean leading up to, or ... on the actual day of five.   But know what?  that's probably irrelevant to my original concern, which was related to the D6-10 range anyway.

As far as that goes ... I have specifically noted that the the Euro operational over deepens troughs in that time range, particularly egregiously and elaborately...  Mainly when ejecting curvature(s) in the flow out 100W at middle latitudes.  Having said that... you may be right that all models do that?  I've just been particularly annoyed by the Euro.. Because it seems to go from beautifully illustrated tempests to vesper echoes (if nothing at all) with no in between compromised system.  So I think in so far as just D6-10 (which I admittedly now is a different discussion ) "when" the Euro does that, it's perhaps a bit more glaring and thus noticeable. 

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3 hours ago, 78Blizzard said:

 

The Euro is still playing with us, but we aren't falling for it.     :lmao:  Especially after the 192 hr "lock-up" it gave us last Tuesday.

Re: Mar 6-7, I'm being tongue-in-cheek of course... still a huge lead time and things may shift with the preceding Mar 1-2 system.

The analog charts I posted above are to Jan 7 96. Some resemblance on today's 12z EC, but we've got a long way to go.

Re: Mar 1-2... a relatively shallow kink in relatively zonal flow. I'm wary we transfer too late for SNE as has been the tendency this month. There are a few EPS members (p17, p43) that either transfer quickly or emphasize the lead wave more, but the majority do not at this point. Obviously there's time for the look to improve.

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1 hour ago, wxsniss said:

Re: Mar 6-7, I'm being tongue-in-cheek of course... still a huge lead time and things may shift with the preceding Mar 1-2 system.

The analog charts I posted above are to Jan 7 96. Some resemblance on today's 12z EC, but we've got a long way to go.

Re: Mar 1-2... a relatively shallow kink in relatively zonal flow. I'm wary we transfer too late for SNE as has been the tendency this month. There are a few EPS members (p17, p43) that either transfer quickly or emphasize the lead wave more, but the majority do not at this point. Obviously there's time for the look to improve.

I'm not sure why it would.

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18z EPS improved again for Mar 1-2. It's trying for the Miller B look. 

For the emotional crowd, I wouldn't even pay attention until Tuesday at the earliest and expect nothing right now...but for everyone else, it's a trend we'll want to watch? Why is it slowly trending better?

There's actually an east-based NAO ridge that is trending stronger the past few runs and it's lowering the heights near Maine and Quebec/New Foundland. That would help "force" and earlier transfer. 

Is it real? Maybe. We're inside of 6 days when all this is going on. But it doesn't mean it will keep trending better. 

 

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IMG_2539.PNG

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS better airmass ahead of it though vs previous runs.

It's also slightly flatter with the lakes cutter.  I wouldn't be shocked to see it go to the Miller b idea the euro shows.

 

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Gfs is more amplified with the euro storm at 240. Misses to the east but much more amplified than 18z.

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z EPS improved again for Mar 1-2. It's trying for the Miller B look. 

For the emotional crowd, I wouldn't even pay attention until Tuesday at the earliest and expect nothing right now...but for everyone else, it's a trend we'll want to watch? Why is it slowly trending better?

There's actually an east-based NAO ridge that is trending stronger the past few runs and it's lowering the heights near Maine and Quebec/New Foundland. That would help "force" and earlier transfer. 

Is it real? Maybe. We're inside of 6 days when all this is going on. But it doesn't mean it will keep trending better. 

 

IMG_2538.PNG

IMG_2539.PNG

Well, is a bit of an NAO ridge forms, then fine...but we will need that, otherwise no reason for it to trend favorably.

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Euro op with a complete abandonment of any storm next weekend. Well it tickles the Cape, but so much for a cutter on this run.  Looks like the Pacific energy in question not in phase like it was on the 12z run. 

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro op with a complete abandonment of any storm next weekend. Well it tickles the Cape, but so much for a cutter on this run.  Looks like the Pacific energy in question not in phase like it was on the 12z run. 

I'd rather that.....all set with the mixed crap/late transfer.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd rather that.....all set with the mixed crap/late transfer.

Probably good to see that now.

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