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40/70 Benchmark

March Disco

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47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Congs.. Taunton? We closed last October..

Yeah, he'll still be in Taunton, but its on the other side from me.  He's basically on Raynham/Norton line.  LOL, I just did the driving directions.  It's 12 miles away.

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4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yeah, he'll still be in Taunton, but its on the other side from me.  He's basically on Raynham/Norton line.  LOL, I just did the driving directions.  It's 12 miles away.

Jesus. Can't get any farther.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Jesus. Can't get any farther.

Nope, maybe another mile or 2.  Taunton is a deceivingly geographically large City.  48 square miles.  Can take 20-25 minutes to cross town.

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1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I’m sure it will. Anecdotally, I recall far too many winters that ended with our friends in the MA getting one last significant snow while we were sunny and 36F with a stiff breeze. 

Can you name more than 1?

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I'm changing my tires over on Friday so you can all but lock in a big one next week. 

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3 hours ago, dendrite said:

Gotta love this winter. A coastal track over SE MA and it’s rain up into much of NNE. This was a pretty good antecedent airmass, but there’s just too much time for it to get flooded out. 

...Or moderated out ... but yeah, agreed in principle. 

It's past the Ides of March.  It's like ...what'd we expect would happen to an air mass that's suffering insolation under open sky ...which other than nuisance, that's been the case ... open sky lasing 

It's like comparing 'Ali to Tyson ... can't be done with exactitude.  But, intuitively, take this same exact overall synoptic leading set of parameters and evolution and transport it all back in time to as little as a month ago and there's your -.5C isothermal event....  

Having said that, ... my own experience in the spring with blue bomb climo is that they are almost always modeled to be +1 to even as much as +3 C isothermal in the NW arc of lows... then end up verifying  9::1 with 0C at every sigma through 800 mb and beyond. This strikes me as sort of similar to that - plausibly.  I just put the 18z and 00z and 06z NAM's 850 mb progs and it was shaving fractions across those three cycles - perhaps atoning for the above tendency. We'll see...  

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

PYM is like that, too.

Middleboro gets a runner up prize as well. All 3 of those places are quite large.

 

In any case, next week is quite interesting. Although it is pushing late March, the airmass isn't what I am worried about. Go figure.

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Just now, DomNH said:

I'm changing my tires over on Friday so you can all but lock in a big one next week. 

was going to start removing snow equipment...will hold off till April 1st then!

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

PYM is like that, too.

Yeah, that's why it helps to know where reports come in for storms. All the Towns down here are enormous.  Middleboro, Carver, Rochester, Lakeville, Freetown.

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4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yeah, that's why it helps to know where reports come in for storms. All the Towns down here are enormous.  Middleboro, Carver, Rochester, Lakeville, Freetown.

They figure only so many people per cranbery bog, so what the hell, clump 'em all together lol

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Meh , if its a monster upslope I’d consider. I want to see over 1” of  upslope QPF to consider 

Yeah it will need more residence time to get 1" QPF but for the global models like GFS and EURO to show the QPF they do is a big signal.  

Get that into range of the meso-scale models and my gut says the global models are under-doing the QPF.  

We've talked about this in the past, but upslope in the spring and fall can be surprisingly moist QPF bombs with more available moisture.  

Not a bad look...

IMG_2547.thumb.PNG.016789ee3fe41a00b75d18c2c2a9aa77.PNG

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Next week is more text book, if you will. Good airmass, system moving across country. Just need to make sure PV to north (which is sort of the result of this system Thursday night), doesn't pork us. 

Mm... the the modulating influence of old sol is probably going to taint the thicknesses a little but ... otherwise - sure.

Thing is, I don't fully believe the models really integrate the daily flux changes of irradiation ... there right way.  It'a a sinusoidal integral.... i.e., slow at first, accelerates, then decelerates then the decline rate of change does the same behavior in the negative direction - perennially.  

Modeler's (duh) have that embedded in the model physics ( I mean... of course -right?) ...still, we see this all the time this time of year, two battles going on:

one is where the thickness overall get neutralized more than the models prove they are capable of assessing out in the middle/extended ranges.  Everything tends to bust on the warm side from synoptics to MOS ...however subtle or gross that is observable relative to all situations. 

the other, if a system still has a cold (enough) core, it has to be more and more of the leg work .. dynamic/systemically reliant to get things flipped over this late in the spring.  

It seems like those two arguments counter on the surface but they don't. 

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15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Middleboro gets a runner up prize as well. All 3 of those places are quite large.

 

In any case, next week is quite interesting. Although it is pushing late March, the airmass isn't what I am worried about. Go figure.

WPC map is tantalizing with a low coming into the lower Ohio Valley a big sprawling high and eastern Ontario western Quebec

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17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Can you name more than 1?

Well 14 for sure I believe had like 3 storms for the Mid Atlantic.. where we missed out on all of them.  There's been others too.  It happens sometimes.

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20 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Can you name more than 1?

March 16-17, 2014 in DC https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/03/18/rare-mid-march-snowstorm-in-washington-d-c-photos/?utm_term=.ab7580e87400  

April 9, 2009 in Delaware https://www.delawareonline.com/story/weather/2016/04/09/late-snow-comes-down-delaware/82830906/

I'm sure there are others....the 2014 one stings because I remember Matt Noyes was originally forecasting 6" for BOS and then everything slowly got more and more suppressed until it was just a partly cloudy day.

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1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

My fiancé and I are scheduled to close on our house next week... keep any and all storms away around that time. Another headache we don’t need 

When we bought our current home 2 1/2 years ago, we closed on a Friday.  The next day we were still taking things to the dump from the last place when a line of storms came through.  It took out 3 or 4 trees on the new property and we lost power for 18 hours.  Good times.

May your closing go smoother.

 

 

As for Friday I think this will end up between the Euro and CMC and I will end up with a plowable snow just to make my plow bill grow even higher.

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2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

WPC map is tantalizing with a low coming into the lower Ohio Valley a big sprawling high and eastern Ontario western Quebec

We can admire this sprawling quebec high when we get shit streaked at the precise time.

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Just a couple quick observations about the 00z GGEM: 

One...that "oblong" surface pressure structure out there at hour 96 while it is abeam of ACK about 200 naut miles E like that is usually indicative of physical stressing in the model, where it's sort of resulting in a "toss up" between convective forcing and hydrodynamics with the deep layer trough mechanics ... so quite figuratively if not literally the resulting pressure pattern ends up equidistantly parsed out... 

That's all code for  ... the western end of that structure could end up favored in reality and verify dominant - or the east too... either way.  But, I tend to lay my money down on deep layer kinematics before convective processing ... when viewing models from D3+ out in time. 

Two ... if that blob of intense CCB -related QPF were situated a 100 mile west over interior SNE, those ptype products flip that over to those fuchsia colored eye-candy snow chokes real ... real quick.  

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm... the the modulating influence of old sol is probably going to taint the thicknesses a little but ... otherwise - sure.

Thing is, I don't fully believe the models really integrate the daily flux changes of irradiation ... there right way.  It'a a sinusoidal integral.... i.e., slow at first, accelerates, then decelerates then the decline rate of change does the same behavior in the negative direction - perennially.  

Modeler's (duh) have that embedded in the model physics ( I mean... of course -right?) ...still, we see this all the time this time of year, two battles going on:

one is where the thickness overall get neutralized more than the models prove they are capable of assessing out in the middle/extended ranges.  Everything tends to bust on the warm side from synoptics to MOS ...however subtle or gross that is observable relative to all situations. 

the other, if a system still has a cold (enough) core, it has to be more and more of the leg work .. dynamic/systemically reliant to get things flipped over this late in the spring.  

It seems like those two arguments counter on the surface but they don't. 

This one has a frigid airmass below 850 as modeled. Real cold. It isn't the fake cold low thickness where all the cold is above Mt Washington. 

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This one has a frigid airmass below 850 as modeled. Real cold. It isn't the fake cold low thickness where all the cold is above Mt Washington. 

Trust me ... come hell or high water, whatever the models show of that "frigid" nature... some amount is going to get normalized, unless ...

I won't argue to powder blizzards all the way to mid April ? ...sure, but in those circumstances the attending air mass was whopper -SD and/or was ingested once the circulation was extreme; and or timed absolutely exquisitely such that no moderation/modulating had time to really take place.   If that all turns out that way next week... sweet!  haha, otherwise, we can't really rely upon our latitude so much anymore. That's gone until next Dec 1st...

Not arguing the overall set up ... I suppose we could file all this under the heading, "duh, it's after the first day of spring"

 

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Trust me ... come hell or high water, whatever the models show of that "frigid" nature... some amount is going to get normalized, unless ...

I won't argue to powder blizzards all the way to mid April ? ...sure, but in those circumstances the attending air mass was whopper -SD and/or was ingested once the circulation was extreme; and or timed absolutely exquisitely such that no moderation/modulating had time to really take place.   If that all turns out that way next week... sweet!  haha, otherwise, we can't really rely upon our latitude so much anymore. That's gone until next Dec 1st...

Not arguing the overall set up ... I suppose we could file all this under the heading, "duh, it's after the first day of spring"

 

No I get what you mean. Part of the "cold" also has to do with it precipitating. If it's a sunny blue bird day, that would be near 40..but throw in precip and it turns into the U20s like the April fluff job of 2016 had. 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No I get what you mean. Part of the "cold" also has to do with it precipitating. If it's a sunny blue bird day, that would be near 40..but throw in precip and it turns into the U20s like the April fluff job of 2016 had. 

The potential for next week you're talking about here..correct??

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

The potential for next week you're talking about here..correct??

Yeah. Hopefully not suppressed. 

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06z EPS is east of the Op run, Tracked the low over 41/70 (Near ACK) into the Bay of Fundy, That looked like it would at least keep the elevations more in line for snow.

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4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

06z EPS is east of the Op run, Tracked the low over 41/70 into the Bay of Fundy, That looked like it would at least keep the elevations more in line for snow.

8% of folks have a good enough idea where the bay of fundy is for that to be ....lol nevermind 

just east of Eastport Maine 

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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

8% of folks have a good enough idea where the bay of fundy is for that to be useful

How about track thru GOM? (Gulf of Maine), Most familiar with that? Living in NE some should take a geography lesson..........lol

 

BOF.png

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23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah. Hopefully not suppressed. 

LOL....Ya the suppression idea would certainly fit into the tenor of this winter for sure...we'll see if the winter stays true to the end, and suppresses the system when an otherwise good airmass/set up is in place.?   

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

06z EPS is east of the Op run, Tracked the low over 41/70 (Near ACK) into the Bay of Fundy, That looked like it would at least keep the elevations more in line for snow.

I was shocked at what a huge jump the 12z vs 00z EPS made last night.  Almost 2-3x the amount of precip and it's a good signal to see the EPS so gung-ho on a mean of 10+ at day 4.  

I haven't looked into the 6z yet but doesn't go out to fully include the upslope event. 

IMG_2548.thumb.PNG.8859d8d32e50fd9f4e5ae984827051dd.PNG

 

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