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March Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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Euro's sellin' a couple of top 10 days ... D9 and 10 if anyone's bitin'

Thing is, I don't see why it has to be less likely ...when comparing the GEFs tele layout .. cross guidance style! 

anyway, PNA flat lines and EPO is on life support... and NAO is sort of stagnated in a positive mode it took at the end of February ...and with these system spinning up into the D.straight graveyard I could see the positive mode flexing stronger if anything...  

Course, we gotta get through Tuesday first... 

One thing about the Euro... It (EPS too) was pretty flat and progressive with this current system of (decaying) interest ... and regardless of whether we get what we want out of it as sensible weather hobbyists or not ... that's side's the point. The FV3' [apparently] gets pat on the back and the Euro was late to the game.  I'm just saying this because this pattern we're in ... be leery of progressive attempts by the Euro. It could correct in similar vein.   

Then, we may flip out of that system into a rapid turn around ... just like we probably do over this weekend. 

All in all, today's the first day of spring and reality seems to want to be typically a pain in the ass concomitant with that particular p.o.s. new england time of year.  I'm waiting for 2005, May to show up at any point -

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro ensembles today are def more suppressed than the previous couple runs....not what we wanted to see. Still nearly 6 days out, but that's a look we want reversed if the goal is to get a storm in here.

Kind of just want it to either go to hell, or commit, and be done with this forgettable season one way or another.

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro ensembles today are def more suppressed than the previous couple runs....not what we wanted to see. Still nearly 6 days out, but that's a look we want reversed if the goal is to get a storm in here.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see PHI-ACY snowstorm while we smoke 39F and cirrus.  

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1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I wouldn’t be surprised to see PHI-ACY snowstorm while we smoke 39F and cirrus.  

I'm in that thin sliver of NE that has avoided a major snow event with surgical precision.

An elevation event Friday sealed with the kiss of some pike south BS next week would be a masterfully apt ending to this FU season.

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15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Kind of just want it to either go to hell, or commit, and be done with this forgettable season one way or another.

I'll give it until about 00z Saturday to start showing some goods assuming it doesn't trend worse.

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Ensembles like the Tip frisbee days for Mar 30-31 too before we go back into the colder airmass to start April. Seems like that early April period would probably be our final chance at a snow event in SNE assuming the EPS have the right idea...obviously we're now talking days 12-15 so the look can change.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro might be a scraper for the south coast next week but plenty of time for that to change too.

That's been the story for spring events here for some time.  My last post-equinox storm of 4"+ came in 2011.  Losing a potential drought-breaker to cold RA (which is increasingly looking like the Fri-Sat solution here), is a less common variation on the theme.

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23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I got a little fuzzy. Compromise is nice. 

Yeah this maybe is one of those scenarios where the GFS shows that clown northwest solution and the euro starts finally coming northwest inside of 120 hours and we end up with a good event as a compromise...at least that would be the ideal scenario.

In a good winter we could almost call it play by play from here...but in this winter I expect something like a RIC snowstorm while we have overcast skies and cold temps for a day. 

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Yeah this maybe is one of those scenarios where the GFS shows that clown northwest solution and the euro starts finally coming northwest inside of 120 hours and we end up with a good event as a compromise...at least that would be the ideal scenario.

In a good winter we could almost call it play by play from here...but in this winter I expect something like a RIC snowstorm while we have overcast skies and cold temps for a day. 

Didn’t that just happen with this storm on Friday? I’m pretty sure the euro was quite east at one point. Like 6 days out. Almost whiffed me. The fv3 gfs had the tucked in look back then. On it’s own for a bit. Not saying the same scenario will play out for the next event but room for watch. I’m sure it will whiff. Winters one last kick to our balls as he exits stage right.

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