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March Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't weight the ens as heavily inside of 96 hours in a rapdily evolving situation...but, yea.

Eh...it’s still 3-4d out and this isn’t a GFS vs GEFS drop in resolution. The EPS members are pretty high res. I’d consider it a bit of a flag.

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17 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

It does look like the op euro is in the most agressive side of the eps solution envelope...doesnt give much confidence to solution much better. 

I think there is a subversive sort of value to that being the case ... It hearkens to the extreme physical sensitivity in that evolution ... how (probably) decimals are driving the difference  - yet another way to say that ... values finer than even the superior meshed guidance types.   ...Maybe... 

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EPS tend to usually be behind the curve in a rapidly trending system (I.e. op hugs the coast after a bunch of scrapers but EPS is only slightly better than scrapers)...the problem is it is hard to tell if the system of rapidly trending or just a one or two run blitz before backing off. 

I think the next couple cycles will be quite telling. 

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