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March Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Ukie again is more to the east, but that Ontario energy tries to build in and expand the precip shield it seems. 

People just can't wrap their minds around how perilously close it is to a big hit. I agree that it probably isn't happening, but that isn't the point.

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11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

People just can't wrap their minds around how perilously close it is to a big hit. I agree that it probably isn't happening, but that isn't the point.

Also throw in the western crowd vs eastern crowd and what each of those areas expect with deepening coastal systems exiting stage right.  Not surprising those further SE in New England aren't quite as into the set up even if it worked out.

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'll take the 18"... it'll all be gone soon anyway.  Sounds like a good storm... 18" of deform delight here and 5" of condo crusher for you pasted sideways on the street signs.

Forgot to mention damage and 70mph winds. Otherwise, no deal. :lol: 

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28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd argue that the GFS, EURO and UK all show the possibility. Sorry they don't all shake hands on a blizzard.

Man, I overestimated you.

EMA is close to a event, deff worth watching. But you need to understand those of us outside the boston circle jerk have zero interest, it’s not even close for us in the SW zones. 

And don’t sell yourself short.....You’ve done a standout job estimating me. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

It's not like ern areas are only worried about QPF. It's a temp profile issue too. Trust me, we aren't that much better than western areas. And it's sort of early to rule anything out right now. 

 

Next week looks like it could also feature a biggie. 

Yeah FV3 sh*tshow model brought 18-24" up here but half of that was upslope.  

You just climo wise nod your head at E.Mass to coastal Maine for bigger impacts in this set-up.  Run that situation 100 times on a model and E.Mass "wins" it many more than any other region. 

Still fun to have something to track...or have a reason to look at the models.

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36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

People just can't wrap their minds around how perilously close it is to a big hit. I agree that it probably isn't happening, but that isn't the point.

Count not agree with  you more.  Folks instantly make a jump to "there is no way this is happening or show me a model that calls for a region-wide blizzard" when the statement is just about how meteorologically close this is to a remember-able bomb event!   Will it happen, probably not and yes eastern areas are closer to trouble than western areas, but the atmospheric setup is only a hair off from being a truly wild event.  Again, I am not calling for it, but I can certainly appreciate the closeness of the pattern to a nasty event. 

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah FV3 sh*tshow model brought 18-24" up here but half of that was upslope.  

You just climo wise nod your head at E.Mass to coastal Maine for bigger impacts in this set-up.  Run that situation 100 times on a model and E.Mass "wins" it many more than any other region. 

Still fun to have something to track...or have a reason to look at the models.

Either way, looks good for upslope in some shape or form there. Big closed low to the northeast eventually.

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Either way, looks good for upslope in some shape or form there. Big closed low to the northeast eventually.

We're all on edge over the Mansfield stake at 3k....what will that reading be in 5 days? 

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33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Either way, looks good for upslope in some shape or form there. Big closed low to the northeast eventually.

Ha you clowns.  I'm on my way to Florida until Friday.  Can't give you Stake updates till then.  Maybe even a parking lot photo of an upslope blizzard.

 

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