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March Disco


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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'm not going to get sucked into that question at this point...lol

If it ends up a weak, strung-out mess then maybe there's mixed showers down in SNE, but if that's the case, who cares about ptype, right?

Of course, just poking the nest a bit, lol. I’m kinda checked out personally and not expecting much, but still would be happy with an unexpected surprise if it were in the cards

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14 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Regarding that elusive appropriately timed / strong enough shortwave in the otherwise favorable setup with meridionally amplified flow along with some relaxation off the northeast coast...

That shortwave responsible for Mar 21-22 should be riding up the ridge and entering the BC coast in the next 24 hours... not sure how much the density of data input changes over land, but we *could* be seeing a bunch of models abruptly jump towards a better solution today into Monday... 

I thought it was already on-board...  huh

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21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

On queue FV3 lost it too far east.

"Lost" ?

Not sure it ever "had it" far enough west to begin with - at least I'm not familiar with any prior model cycles where it depicted it so...

No, if anything, from a Meteorological perspective this was a higher impact solution when assessing using the 500 mb chart synoptic evolution and the fact that any surface response may or may not have been too far E as this particular run goes is mutable.

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I thought it was already on-board...  huh

Yeah, I think this is it circled... at 6z Sunday using FV3... so the responsible shortwave is on-board as of this morning... let's see if models today abruptly crystallize around something interesting as a result...

H5_FV3_03_17_2019_shortwave_entering_BC.jpg.24197545506c437aece0328c9a017e45.jpg

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11 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Yeah, I think this is it circled... at 6z Sunday using FV3... so the responsible shortwave is on-board as of this morning... let's see if models today abruptly crystallize around something interesting as a result...

yes, it's in the NW territories now

vort.thumb.PNG.0ffbcfe59a9b412097b93adeece4c723.PNG

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well whatever happens this'll be an interesting test for the parallel GFS ... which as noted has been the demonstrative outlier for amplitude and placement. 

 

While I haven’t been running the model scores, the FV3 has had tons of fake news cyclones in the day 6+ timeframe. I know it’s day 5 now, but man it’s gone full weenie so many times before. It’s a bit scary to think it takes the place of the current GFS as we know it. 

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