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March Disco


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39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z Ukie looks pretty "interesting" at day 6 as well at the end of its run. I'm not trying to get everyone's hopes up saying a big one is likely, but we know the risks of a very amplified PNA ridge. The embedded shortwaves likely wouldn't be resolved until another 48-72 hours closer. That said, I'd like to see a little more northern stream phase in there, but there's obviously potential.

 

 

Mar14_12zUkie.gif

Goddam!  That’s a sweet look leading in!

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Otherwise it’s cold 38-42 and frigid nights.  At least your dashboard will be warm to the touch 

 I am  100% with you on getting snow if it’s gonna be this goddamn cold. Right now the me it looks like a bit of a stretch but not impossible. That’s all. 

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3 hours ago, dryslot said:

Its the bear awakening right now........lol

And skunks.  1st of the season stink-o-rama Monday, again Tuesday, and 2 different spots today, all on my morning commute.  Expect the barred owls to open up any day now.
 

You lucked out no doubt, Overall, Wasn't great for many, My grade is a C - here.

If March-April come in right at C-level, this winter will score a solid C+, thanks to the A+ for (low-weighted) Novie and a B+ for January, overcoming December's D.  (And only Dec being BN temps kept it with a passing grade.)  I value pack depth and persistence, and this winter will almost certainly have 2nd highest SDDs of 21 here - after today will be over 2,500 and about 300 behind current #2 (13-14) with 37-38" current depth, but 1,300 away from 07-08.  Would need a blockbuster (or two), plus a cold April, to approach that winter - not happening.

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8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s over. File the tellies away for 8 months. 

Looks like we will have to deal with the true New England spring this year...warm weather teasing us until June 15th, mud pies for everyone until further notice. Dogs needing wiped down from head to paw every time they go outside and probably a full fledge tick season to make up for last year's lack...

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53 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

The PNA has blue-balled this forum all winter.  Don't fall for it.

mmm Not like this ... 

It may "blue ball" this time - it may.   But at no time really this winter has the PNA been progged dual both agencies to this type of magnitude, for this long.  

Having said that...  the Euro doubled down on the ignore PNA look by full blown Chinook spring blasting the entire continent below the 50th parallel...  It's amazing how contradictory that is ...really.

You know...can't say I'd hate that if we were 72 for three days on a west wind 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mmm Not like this ... 

It may "blue ball" this time - it may.   But at no time really this winter has the PNA been progged dual both agencies to this type of magnitude, for this long.  

Having said that...  the Euro doubled down on the ignore PNA look but full blown Chinook spring blasting the entire continent below the 50th parallel...  It's amazing how contradictory that is ...really.

So Tip this "potential" has been out there for over a week? I believe you were one of the first to note it, with that said, Scott says needs mouth to mouth but is "there", 24 hours from now thought on that signal status? And I'm sorry which model is hinting, few have dropped it ,correct?

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32 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

The pna is happening whether you believe it or not..its the other difficulties...fast flow with more super +nao...fighting climo.  

Oh, I do believe it's happening.  It's been happening all Winter and it's produced as much as Pablo Sandoval did during his stint with the Red Sox.

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5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

...while folks in NNE rock back and forth, hoping to not see visible signs of a glaciated snowpack melting. 

Sounds like more SNE folklore.  Most of us too busy doing actual NNE stuff this time of year.

15MAR17F.jpg

On average though, the Mansfield snowpack is going to start decreasing in just a few short weeks, and it’s only going to be around for another 2 to 3 months, so the locals are definitely freaking out.  The apprehension was overtly palpable as I traveled through town today.

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9 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Sounds like more SNE folklore.  Most of us too busy doing actual NNE stuff this time of year.

15MAR17F.jpg

On average though, the Mansfield snowpack is going to start decreasing in just a few short weeks, and it’s only going to be around for another 2 to 3 months, so the locals are definitely freaking out.  The apprehension was overtly palpable as I traveled through town today.

My guess is a majority of NNE population is not skiing due to financial and other reasons. You guys can thank SNE and NYC for your economy. :) 

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34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

My guess is a majority of NNE population is not skiing due to financial and other reasons. You guys can thank SNE and NYC for your economy. :) 

A large part of the NNE population is trying to figure out how to melt this snow as fast as possible, ha.  The "normal" folks are so far over winter they can already see summer.  

And yes, you guys make the bucks in the financial sectors and stuff like that... then load that money into your car, drive it up here, and dump it into a big pile of dollar bills in the center of town and everyone comes out to grab a share of it.  That's basically the tourism industry in a nutshell when you really dumb it down :lol:.

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

A large part of the NNE population is trying to figure out how to melt this snow as fast as possible, ha.  The "normal" folks are so far over winter they can already see summer.  

And yes, you guys make the bucks in the financial sectors and stuff like that... then load that money into your car, drive it up here, and dump it into a big pile of dollar bills in the center of town and everyone comes out to grab a share of it.  That's basically the tourism industry in a nutshell when you really dumb it down :lol:.

It’s like that scene from Batman when the joker comes around on the float and throws money around. :lol:   I didn’t mean to offend Jspin.  Hopefully the addition of SWE in his obs eases the pain of melt. 

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9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

A large part of the NNE population is trying to figure out how to melt this snow as fast as possible, ha.  The "normal" folks are so far over winter they can already see summer.  

And yes, you guys make the bucks in the financial sectors and stuff like that... then load that money into your car, drive it up here, and dump it into a big pile of dollar bills in the center of town and everyone comes out to grab a share of it.  That's basically the tourism industry in a nutshell when you really dumb it down :lol:.

Back the car right up to The Alchemist and dump the money out.

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35 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

A large part of the NNE population is trying to figure out how to melt this snow as fast as possible, ha.  The "normal" folks are so far over winter they can already see summer.  

And yes, you guys make the bucks in the financial sectors and stuff like that... then load that money into your car, drive it up here, and dump it into a big pile of dollar bills in the center of town and everyone comes out to grab a share of it.  That's basically the tourism industry in a nutshell when you really dumb it down :lol:.

 

23 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Empty the suitcases of money, fill them up with 4-packs of Double IPAs.

Same in PWM, just moreso in the Summer vs. Winter.  

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2 hours ago, 512high said:

So Tip this "potential" has been out there for over a week? I believe you were one of the first to note it, with that said, Scott says needs mouth to mouth but is "there", 24 hours from now thought on that signal status? And I'm sorry which model is hinting, few have dropped it ,correct?

Hi, 

...just so we're clear, the "signal" was the change toward a meridian circulation structure over N/A; those that are well-correlated with the +PNA phase. 

Looking for a specific event withing that regime change has been a bear ...but is also a different event/daily effort.  If one sees something amplifying into a flow change like that described above, that becomes a different sort of ... I guess signal - but we weren't up to this point ever actually following anything that specific... The era of interest if you will was the 17th through ~ the 24th or so and that remains, so long as the PNA does indeed sequence through that robust positive SD. 

I mentioned with half-sarcasm days ago that it was puzzling that the models et al were failing to in fact pick up on anything inside the period of amplitude - referring to it tongue-in-cheek as a "gutted PNA" ... still as of now, it is amazing to see that robust of a ridge and have such a pallid coupled downstream trough and/or impulse timed to take advantage of that... It just may come down to bad luck (don't tell ..whoever hates the word) that there's no S'W available spatial-temporally.  The heights over Florida and adjacent SW Atlantic Basin are also compressible .. the velocities down. There's really is an open-door opportunity for mad EC amplitude with that western ridge ...

Yet the Euro swashes the whole structure half way to England and leaves the enter thermal tapestry S of the border in mid May by D9....  It is possible that the "signal" in so far as the pattern orientation will be proven a red herring all along, and have trouble reaching the amplitude of the American -based tele spread; we'll just have to see which way it goes and we'll probably start to get a better sniff of it Saturday+

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