Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

March Disco


40/70 Benchmark
 Share

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Worse at the other end of the time zone.  For, say, South Bend, IN you could add about an hour to all those times.  With family in both HI and Japan, neither of which use DST, year-round standard time would be nicer for us, especially for real-time communications.

On another topic, 1995-96 is my 2nd snowiest winter since moving from Fort Kent, but I'd grade it no higher than B/B-, thanks mainly to the repeated thaws (especially in January) that turned good pack to icy messes several times, but also to watching the biggest storm go OTS with little impact at home, and the overall lack of either blockbuster snows or extended cold.  Good winter, but only 3rd or 4th best of my 13 in Gardiner.

OMG...twilight there around the time of the solstice is 9:58 PM CDT. 

Nautical twilight is 10:41 PM...jeez 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Meh, looks questionable too. Hopefully we are done. I'm ready. 

Yesterday felt great, let's dry things out a bit too...the mud is insane already and we still have a few inches to melt yet...unless next week produces a blockbuster, let's just move on

Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That's what I was leaning towards :lol: 

There are some cases where it's really hard (although perhaps not for those with much more experience and knowledge) to get a handle. One thing I've been wanting to do is do a daily verification of forecasts and take notes on MOS output and other data so I can really improve skills with models and which seem to handle certain situations better. (Even including Euro). I had created a spreadsheet to do this, but its too much for me to do.

I was directed towards this incredible spreadsheet a meteorologist at NWS Corpis Christi created. This thing is incredible. You put in a station code and the program runs and collects MOS data, certain bufkit data, and NWS forecasts. I've reached out with her to assist with tailoring such a thing  since I know zero coding and I'm going to pay her pretty solidly. 

Was looking at ceiling heights for MEM tomorrow night and there was a big difference between NAM and GFS and my determination was due to the slightly higher dewpoints on the NAM. Looking at everything though MEM should easily get into the lower 60's for dews. GFS MOS only has upper 50's which doesn't reflect model output at all actually. 

ECMWF vis/cigs are some of the best products out there. The NSSL WRF visibility is great too, but it overproduces fog across snowpack. RAP/HRRR are also useful in the short-term. Climo/pattern recognition is probably the best tool of all though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Worse at the other end of the time zone.  For, say, South Bend, IN you could add about an hour to all those times.  With family in both HI and Japan, neither of which use DST, year-round standard time would be nicer for us, especially for real-time communications.

On another topic, 1995-96 is my 2nd snowiest winter since moving from Fort Kent, but I'd grade it no higher than B/B-, thanks mainly to the repeated thaws (especially in January) that turned good pack to icy messes several times, but also to watching the biggest storm go OTS with little impact at home, and the overall lack of either blockbuster snows or extended cold.  Good winter, but only 3rd or 4th best of my 13 in Gardiner.

The state is still trying to get us to move to Atlantic time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LAMP isn't a bad option either in the near term, but as my boy Purduewx said...it can be an issue with the GFS based product. HRRR cig product is decent, and obviously soundings are still key.  Beware the NAM always loves to saturate the lower 500ft though. :lol: 

It's insane how the NAM goes crazy with the saturation in the lowest 500'. It seems to love to do this for areas especially near bodies of water. 

4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

ECMWF vis/cigs are some of the best products out there. The NSSL WRF visibility is great too, but it overproduces fog across snowpack. RAP/HRRR are also useful in the short-term. Climo/pattern recognition is probably the best tool of all though.

Thanks for that link! I just recently (from Ryan) discovered the HREF and didn't realize there was also this product. I love how it has the lighting product too. 

Climo/pattern recognition is going to be my key. Unfortunately for what I do short-term forecasts aren't necessarily helpful. The goal is to try and provide as much lead time as possible so I'm looking for areas of concerning weather multiple days out...which of course with fog and timing of thunderstorms that can be quite difficult to pin down. But my goal is with learning climo/pattern recognition that will improve skills in these areas outside of the "short-term". 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, FXWX said:

Agree 110%...  It will lead to a big push back from school districts and parents.  I'm perfectly fine with the status quo...  To be honest, I hate the thought of 2 pm for the Euro release; many of my wintertime school updates need to be fully out by 2 pm and I always want to get a at least a quick peak at the Euro before updating evening / overnight periods.   By the time DST kicks in now during early/mid March winter forecasting stress is usually starting to wane so I can live with the current flip to DST but would hate it for the NOV-FEB period.

Not that anyone asked but I'm not sure I understand (necessarily) why the modeling initialization has to be cow-tied to the movement of the clock in the first place ... Every reason I have ever heard sounds perfunctory if not knee-jerk replaying a familiar mantra of faux perceived limitation. 

I disagree - the world of technology is not a part of natural laws. We're not asking to change E=MC2 here ... It may be a pain in the collective ass for deterministic/operational weather forecasting to "re"wire the globe around something ...oh, gee, intelligent... Or, we can keep coming up with preclusively insurmountable excuses that when are put in the logic crucible they only purify to excuses to not change period. 

In general, there is a tendency ( I feel ..) for industrialized society "switch trippers" to trap their thinking inside of bounds of operation ...and when first suggestion for change materializes, that's impossible! No, there's no hand from god, or Quantum Mechanical principle in natural physics that says we can't call time whatever in the f we want.  

But perhaps this is a maverick talking :)   Rewire the thing ... so that it's 7 am period... .Move the clocks all we want... you launch your f balloons and drop your sondes and program your satellites at that same numerical clock value, period. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I guess we've totally lost it....March disco no longer about the pattern, but about DST vs. AST.  Even the mods are too tired to do anything about it.  Not that I have anything intelligent to add about the weather.

Hey sorry - 

but...you know, Brian said this to me a long time ago and it makes sense when dealing with people.  

Firstly, this is a leisure/social -media?  There are rules, but we're not in the Military here.  We're not in the sanitation management services of a medical complex, either.  He said he likes to keep threads clean and on point during hurried/elevated times when it matters, but with the pattern relaxing and spring staring to clearly taint things toward tulip talk ... the posture is going to relax some.  

Plus, who cares

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Having said that .. 

The Euro was interesting at 00z.. Not so much for whether it would all go down as synoptically depicted nearing (the Equinox....) But, it does suggest there is some hope for those winter enthusiast interests that may be holding out for some sort of poetic ending.  Obviously, it goes without saying..that's precarious, albeit subject to change, for being an impressive spring blue bomb. 

I do see rather abruptly over the last two days, spring's modulation of the hemisphere underway, tho.  I suspect it's sort of muscling in and interfering with the previous evolution of the +PNA we were tracking. 

Hypothetical ... but it seems to me (and the Euro really illustrates this nicely) like winter bottles up (symbolic) and rotates up into the Maritime Canada up through Greenland by the end of the run, and that leaves/starts starving the PNA of gradient ... It's like we've been plagued by too much of the stuff all season... the flow relaxes? It relaxes too much!  And the PNA circuitry just doesn't really get left with much to define that structure... so the collapsing ridge we see at the end of the run is merely because the foundation for it's anomaly disappears as a result.  It's like spring is that lever on the bottom of an Etch-'n'-Sketch

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, 512high said:

ASH may low 50s?

Mm... I think it could do better than that... I wouldn't be shocked to hang low 60s over rapidly dwindling snow pack at that latitude.  It's rare to do that combination of temperature and snow of course, but...I suspect a warm boundary blasts through and typical warm sector lower DP will probably bust cloud products to high and we end up with just a near perfect heating scenario by 1pm snow pack or not.  I've seen be 65 F with laze faire nape kisser breezes while people ski in shorts. 

Not so much up in cne proper... By the time you get much N of MHT ... the flow will have traversed enough vestigial cryo to have modulated lower. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...