CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Multiple chances next two weeks. Buckle up despite the Debbie’s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Multiple chances next two weeks. Buckle up despite the Debbie’s. The forecasts seem to be for a mild March- is that because we get an abrupt change to eastern warmth after March 15th? Or is it after March 10th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: The forecasts seem to be for a mild March- is that because we get an abrupt change to eastern warmth after March 15th? Or is it after March 10th? It was post March 15, but that is in jeopardy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It was post March 15, but that is in jeopardy. Weird how everything seems to be going the opposite of forecasts this year. Who knows- maybe we'll get a repeat of last March and early April. That storm next Friday into Saturday seems interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScituateWX Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 8 hours ago, CoastalWx said: It was post March 15, but that is in jeopardy. EPS looks to have a trough in the east in the extended knowing how well the models have been I fully expect a ridge at 12Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Things get dicey at the end of these runs ... the foreign ones. The Americans in the D7 to 12 range are interesting as well. What I'm seeing is a relaxed flow like we've pretty much never seen modeled since late October of 2018, yet, plenty of cold air around. Not just hints, either... Like, lose the -20 C and lower mass in Canada and lose the -3 TO -4 SD SPV's and we're in business. Note, winter enthusiasts don't need -20 to -30 C plumes spread out over southern Canada to cash in on winter weather. This winter has beat you over the head with why. That -3 to -12 tapestry we see out there in those time frames, when mixed up with close-able impulses ... that all changes the storm styling/complexions from low QPF powdered snow/tortured light ice and dry sleeters, to more of the blue bomb aggregate types. 'Course that's getting the storms to happen.. but, we're setting the craps table here with our fire-bets. I'm liking the loss of the EPO ridging with the rise in PNA ... At least for a time while we use up the cold left in the wake. That could signal less gradient/velocity saturation, and not having to deal with shrinking corridor impacts and needle threading headaches. The Euro has an unlikely 2-day ice storm suggested ... but all the models have the flow at 500 mb twisting about with -5 to -10 C 850s lurking above spring thicknesses in the TV back over TX ... One thing we gotta keep in mind, however, is that the sun increasing so rapidly does play havoc on outlooks as it can add diabatically and cause these "looks" to suddenly modulate - ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Things get dicey at the end of these runs ... the foreign ones. The Americans in the D7 to 12 range are interesting as well. What I'm seeing is a relaxed flow like we've pretty much never seen modeled since late October of 2018, yet, plenty of cold air around. Not just hints, either... Like, lose the -20 C and lower mass in Canada and lose the -3 TO -4 SD SPV's and we're in business. Note, winter enthusiasts don't need -20 to -30 C plumes spread out over southern Canada to cash in on winter weather. This winter has beat you over the head with why. That -3 to -12 tapestry we see out there in those time frames, when mixed up with close-able impulses ... that all changes the storm styling/complexions from low QPF powdered snow/tortured light ice and dry sleeters, to more of the blue bomb aggregate types. 'Course that's getting the storms to happen.. but, we're setting the craps table here with our fire-bets. I'm liking the loss of the EPO ridging with the rise in PNA ... At least for a time while we use up the cold left in the wake. That could signal less gradient/velocity saturation, and not having to deal with shrinking corridor impacts and needle threading headaches. The Euro has an unlikely 2-day ice storm suggested ... but all the models have the flow at 500 mb twisting about with -5 to -10 C 850s lurking above spring thicknesses in the TV back over TX ... One thing we gotta keep in mind, however, is that the sun increasing so rapidly does play havoc on outlooks as it can add diabatically and cause these "looks" to suddenly modulate - ... Yeah the long range actually looks dare I say, like an El Nino. Aleutian low and PNA ridge with warm anomalies across Canada. That can still work for snow in the NE in mid-march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Yeah the long range actually looks dare I say, like an El Nino. Aleutian low and PNA ridge with warm anomalies across Canada. That can still work for snow in the NE in mid-march. Ha ha... I know .. .like, is this thing ever going to show up already... . But yeah, NCEP's recent publications on the matter, they're indicated that at long last, ... the atmosphere over the Pacific Basin is finally showing signs of coupling with the SST distribution (via convection/OLR distribution and so forth) so,, agreed... there might just be a PNA response here... Wonder if a bigger actual slow mover can Archembault it's way onto the charts over the next week. Don't look now ... ladies and gentlemen, maybe a fun exit to this tortured mess. ... Well, tortured S of Glenn's Falls to PWM - not sure anyone up there has room to really complain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ha ha... I know .. .like, is this thing ever going to show up already... . But yeah, NCEP's recent publications on the matter, they're indicated that at long last, ... the atmosphere over the Pacific Basin is finally showing signs of coupling with the SST distribution (via convection/OLR distribution and so forth) so,, agreed... there might just be a PNA response here... Wonder if a bigger actual slow mover can Archembault it's way onto the charts over the next week. Don't look now ... ladies and gentlemen, maybe a fun exit to this tortured mess. ... Well, tortured S of Glenn's Falls to PWM - not sure anyone up there has room to really complain. Wouldn't that be nice. Would like a nice cold airmass to go along with it instead of some rotting one so at least the non-southcoast coastal folks around here don't get stuck with slop, poor ratios that have trouble sticking. Obviously it gets a lot harder to do the longer we go into March. The global's have been seeing the threats long-term though. The GFS has had this upcoming storm consistently since when, last Monday? It's just when we get closer in, with many other models thrown into the mix, we can't seem to get a proper consensus with even a 1 day leadtime Hope you're right! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Well the cold air will definitely be in place for any storm late next week. Thinking specifically of the storm the CMC keeps driving to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2019 Author Share Posted March 3, 2019 Tip is a fast flow sniffing hound....if he says its relaxed, rest assured that it is. That is probably why the big events usually occur near regime changes...if you think about it, gradients are relaxed and mass shifts create enhanced baroclinicity. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Well, Im moving to Nashville, starting my drive on the 8th. Winter will commence shortly there after. Im 100% positive that Im going to miss the KU of the century 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 We lost the Wednesday storm. Looks like next up maybe the 11th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Well, Im moving to Nashville, starting my drive on the 8th. Winter will commence shortly there after. Im 100% positive that Im going to miss the KU of the century What? Good luck. Why Nashville? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Well, Im moving to Nashville, starting my drive on the 8th. Winter will commence shortly there after. Im 100% positive that Im going to miss the KU of the century Hi NoPoles! Hope you have safe travels and enjoy your new home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 People leave Tennessee ... why the hell you movin there 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: People leave Tennessee ... why the hell you movin there https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/petertaylor/2017/06/02/nashville-is-on-a-red-hot-roll-and-its-not-just-the-predators/amp/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 56 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Well, Im moving to Nashville, starting my drive on the 8th. Winter will commence shortly there after. Im 100% positive that Im going to miss the KU of the century Congrats! Much better siggy severe season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Congrats! Much better siggy severe season. She may get more snow than Plymouth. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: She may get more snow than Plymouth. A good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 58 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Well, Im moving to Nashville, starting my drive on the 8th. Winter will commence shortly there after. Im 100% positive that Im going to miss the KU of the century Good luck on the country music career. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 hour ago, #NoPoles said: Well, Im moving to Nashville, starting my drive on the 8th. Winter will commence shortly there after. Im 100% positive that Im going to miss the KU of the century Oh man...we never got to ski Wachusett... best of luck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Whatever happens on Sun/Mon, it’s def going to be cold next week. BOX has me below freezing for a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 hour ago, #NoPoles said: Well, Im moving to Nashville, starting my drive on the 8th. Winter will commence shortly there after. Im 100% positive that Im going to miss the KU of the century Oh wow, congrats! Enjoy, you'll meet some good folks down there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 hour ago, mreaves said: What? Good luck. Why Nashville? Working at another Adventure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: People leave Tennessee ... why the hell you movin there Never in a million years did i ever give one thought to living in a place with horrid humidity...but the company i worked for on Cape Cod, owns a park in Nashville. Life throws curveballs...but cheers to new adventures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Oh man...we never got to ski Wachusett... best of luck. Maybe next winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Im pretty sure you all will get an April 97 redux just after I move 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Im pretty sure you all will get an April 97 redux just after I move I know a few folks who live right around Nashville and it sounds like a nice place with lots to do. Just a few miles in any direction it is pretty Appalachia though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 32 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I know a few folks who live right around Nashville and it sounds like a nice place with lots to do. Just a few miles in any direction it is pretty Appalachia though. It’s one of the fastest growing cities in the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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