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snowman19

March, 2019

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Later this week, a storm will likely bring rain to parts of the Northeast, especially coastal areas. Accumulating snow is possible in higher elevations across Upstate New York, Quebec, and New England. The greatest risk of a moderate or significant snowfall (4” or more) exists in the higher elevations of Quebec north and west of Quebec City and in an area running across western Maine and northern New Hampshire.

Next week could favor a better chance at a measurable snowfall. Some of the guidance is suggesting that the March 26-28 period could offer a window of opportunity for a measurable snowfall in at least parts of the Philadelphia to Boston corridor. But at this time scale, uncertainty remains high.

The 0z EPS ensemble mean figures are:

Boston: 3.0” (8/51 members at 4” or more; 4 of those members show 10” or more)
New York City: 2.0” (5/51 members at 4” or more)
Philadelphia: 1.0” (4/51 members at 4” or more)

The 0z GGEM also highlighted the possibility of measurable snow.

Some historical data is provided below for perspective as it relates to 4” or greater snowfalls for Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia in the March 25-April 30 timeframe:

Snow0325-0430b.jpg

Even in Boston, a 4” or greater snowfall would be an infrequent event this late in the season.

 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

^^^^^^^^^^

Agree...Don. The period around the 26-27th may be the last opportunity this season to see some frozen precipitation. But it will all come down to getting the right storm track to make it happen. At the very least, places like NYC could see their first freeze during the last week of March since 2014 and 2015.

 

 

 

I agree about the importance of the storm track.

Last year, ISP saw 4.6" snow on April 2 and NYC saw 5.5" snow.

It has been uncommon for ISP or NYC to have 2 or more consecutive years during which 2" or more snow fell during the March 25-April 30 period. ISP has had 1 such case (1996 and 1997) during its 57-year climate record; NYC has had 3. ISP would equate to around 3 over the same period of time as NYC's climate record.

Neither location has had 2 or more consecutive years when 4" or more snow fell during the March 25-April 30 period.

Then again, the 2010s have set a lot of snowfall records, so one can't completely rule out such a scenario, which appeared on a few of the EPS members (0z run).

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Non-zero risk for (elevated) thunderstorms here Thursday night if the 12z guidance is correct about the surface low passing just to our S/E. 12Z NAM lapse rates below:

floop-nam-2019031912_lr75.us_ma.gif.d7419a60ee50949502a73391ea6db246.gif

The 500m low appears to close off in our vicinity, so if that's correct, at the least there would be some legit +RA for a few hours in the late evening or at night.

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Models in full warm up push back mode. They are now showing another cool down around the 27th. Instead of the warm up they had been showing in earlier runs.

Yea no big spring warm-up here. Days like last Friday will be few and far between. 

Was in the mid to upper 20s last couple nights for lows.

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30 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yea no big spring warm-up here. Days like last Friday will be few and far between. 

Was in the mid to upper 20s last couple nights for lows.

I'm hopeful Sunday or Monday will be decently warm with the ~westerly flow out of that PNA ridge ahead of next week's cold shot. We'll see.

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I'm hopeful Sunday or Monday will be decently warm with the ~westerly flow out of that PNA ridge ahead of next week's cold shot. We'll see.
My weather apps in the last 24 hours all dropped Sunday's highs by 10 degrees.

I'm hoping they are wrong.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree about the importance of the storm track.

Last year, ISP saw 4.6" snow on April 2 and NYC saw 5.5" snow.

It has been uncommon for ISP or NYC to have 2 or more consecutive years during which 2" or more snow fell during the March 25-April 30 period. ISP has had 1 such case (1996 and 1997) during its 57-year climate record; NYC has had 3. ISP would equate to around 3 over the same period of time as NYC's climate record.

Neither location has had 2 or more consecutive years when 4" or more snow fell during the March 25-April 30 period.

Then again, the 2010s have set a lot of snowfall records, so one can't completely rule out such a scenario, which appeared on a few of the EPS members (0z run).

Yeah, it will be interesting to see how things look once we get within the 120 hr forecast period.. Models have been pretty volatile with storm track forecasts recently. Looks like unseasonably cold temperatures for late March around the 26-27th. So we’ll just need the correct  storm track to take advantage of the cold. The PNA reversal from February to March and pattern changes it produced have been pretty extreme.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSSeattle/status/1101739191241711617

February 2019 goes down as the snowiest February on record in Seattle with 20.2". It was also the 3rd coldest February on record. Records started at Sea-Tac in 1945.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSSeattle/status/1107749122302509057

74 degrees in Seattle at 2 PM makes this: - a daily record - the warmest winter day on record - the earliest in the calendar year that we have ever been this warm - the 3rd warmest March day on record And it's 42 degrees warmer than our high temperature back on Feb 4th. #wawx

245 PM Update | 75° in Seattle This is now tied for the 2nd warmest March day on record.

 

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

I'm hopeful Sunday or Monday will be decently warm with the ~westerly flow out of that PNA ridge ahead of next week's cold shot. We'll see.

Yeah, looks like we could see another brief warm up on Sunday before the next cool down. This spring so far is all about taking the warmer days when we can get them.

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Yeah, looks like we could see another brief warm up on Sunday before the next cool down. This spring so far is all about taking the warmer days when we can get them.
On Long island that's every spring. Especially April.

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8 minutes ago, tek1972 said:

On Long island that's every spring. Especially April.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

Yeah, years like 2012 and 2002 are the exception rather than the rule for Long Island. Islip had 6 record highs in March 2012 and 5 during April 2002. Those were years without a winter and a quick transition to summer.

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39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, looks like we could see another brief warm up on Sunday before the next cool down. This spring so far is all about taking the warmer days when we can get them.

And another warmup late next week after the tuesday/wednesday cold shot. An up and down pattern for awhile with a couple cool days and couple warm days.

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My most likely faulty memory from growing up on LI was that spring kicked sometime in late March or early April at the latest, at least north of Merrick Rd, and you could pretty much count on good weather for Easter/Passover almost every year. Even at my parents house ~1 mile south of Merrick Rd we could usually count on the forsythia and willow bushes blooming for Passover. Here in south central Putnam County I usually figure it's about 4/15 before it gets decently reliable but this decade it really has been a roller coaster for April. 2012 we had a wonderful 5 week stretch from then end of March into the beginning of May with temps in the 70's every day and not a drop of rain. Things dried out quickly as the trees leafed out and sucked the ground dry, unfortunately that also left us thirsty by early July. Last year it was May before it dried out and warmed up.

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it will be interesting to see how things look once we get within the 120 hr forecast period.. Models have been pretty volatile with storm track forecasts recently. Looks like unseasonably cold temperatures for late March around the 26-27th. So we’ll just need the correct  storm track to take advantage of the cold. The PNA reversal from February to March and pattern changes it produced have been pretty extreme.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSSeattle/status/1101739191241711617

February 2019 goes down as the snowiest February on record in Seattle with 20.2". It was also the 3rd coldest February on record. Records started at Sea-Tac in 1945.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSSeattle/status/1107749122302509057

74 degrees in Seattle at 2 PM makes this: - a daily record - the warmest winter day on record - the earliest in the calendar year that we have ever been this warm - the 3rd warmest March day on record And it's 42 degrees warmer than our high temperature back on Feb 4th. #wawx

245 PM Update | 75° in Seattle This is now tied for the 2nd warmest March day on record.

 

 

 

 

Seattle reached 79 degrees at 3 pm PDT. That set a new monthly record high temperature.

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Question.   How do you turn 16" of Snow into 2" of Rain in 12 hours?

Answer.   Ask the CMC.

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35 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Seattle reached 79 degrees at 3 pm PDT. That set a new monthly record high temperature.

The ridge is getting pretty extreme out there with several all-time highs for this time of year falling.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1108126411733135360

Klawock, AK, hit 70°F at the 2 p.m. AKDT observation. This is the earliest 70°F anywhere in Alaska in any year. Previous earliest 70°F reading was Mar 31, 2016 (a state record 71°F also at Klawock).

https://mobile.twitter.com/shawnmilrad/status/1108110070020259841

The ridge over Western Canada is just ridiculous. It's in the 60s(!) aka 16-18C in the NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. In MARCH.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Pat_wx/status/1108105742274445312

It's official. High of 20.2°C at Yohin Lake, NWT through 2:00PM MDT is the first 20+ ever recorded in March in the Northwest Territories.

 

 

 

 

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As of 3 pm PDT, the temperature had reached 79° at Seattle. That set a new March record high temperature. The previous monthly record was 78°, which was set on March 29, 2004.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.70°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C for the week centered around March 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C. Similar ENSO conditions will likely persist through much of March.

The SOI was -1.44 today. It has been negative for 41 out of the last 42 days.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.940. The AO has now been positive for 40 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the April 13, 2018 through June 3, 2018 period when the AO was positive for 52 consecutive days. Historic probabilities favor the continuation of a predominantly positive AO through the remainder of March.

On March 18, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.382 (RMM). The amplitude was lower than the March 17-adjusted figure of 0.481. The MJO could approach or reach Phase 2 in the next day or so.

Thursday into Friday, a strong storm will move along the coastline of the Northeastern United States. Much of the region could receive 0.50"-1.00" rain with locally higher amounts. Another system could bring the risk of precipitation to the region during the March 26-28 period.

Some of the guidance suggests the possibility of at least some frozen precipitation from that latter system. Such an outcome would be consistent with historical experience. A small number of the 12z EPS members showed 4" or more snow.

Since 1869, New York City has had 10 cases during the March 1-7 period when 6.0" or more snow fell and the average temperature was 32.0° or below. All 10 cases had additional measurable snowfall afterward.

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50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The ridge is getting pretty extreme out there with several all-time highs for this time of year falling.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1108126411733135360

Klawock, AK, hit 70°F at the 2 p.m. AKDT observation. This is the earliest 70°F anywhere in Alaska in any year. Previous earliest 70°F reading was Mar 31, 2016 (a state record 71°F also at Klawock).

https://mobile.twitter.com/shawnmilrad/status/1108110070020259841

The ridge over Western Canada is just ridiculous. It's in the 60s(!) aka 16-18C in the NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. In MARCH.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Pat_wx/status/1108105742274445312

It's official. High of 20.2°C at Yohin Lake, NWT through 2:00PM MDT is the first 20+ ever recorded in March in the Northwest Territories.

 

 

 

 

Many monthly records are falling in western Canada. At 7 pm EDT, Abbotsford Airport and Cultus Lake, both in British Columbia, had a temperature of 24.1°C (75°F).

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Seattle's warmth today was historic.

High temperature: 79° (old daily record: 76°, 1928; old March record: 78°, 3/29/2004)

Warmest reading in the October 23-March 31 period.

Low temperature: 59° (old daily record: 50°, 1997 and 2016; old March record: 57°, 3/10/1900)

Highest minimum temperature for both March and April. Warmest minimum temperature for the October 21-May 8 period.

CXYH in the Northwest Territories hit 71 today.

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Next 8 days are averaging 44degs., maybe 1deg. BN.

Month to date is -2.2[38.3].       Should be -1.7[40.0] by the 28th.

Models are a Trace to 4" near 27th.   CMC leads.

The ridge causing those record highs in PNW is not as anomalous as the last 5 days of March 1998 on EC, is it?

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..KFOK with 4 consecutive morning lows in the teens(13,13,14,17 this morning)..

ideal radiational cooling conditions out here in the pine barrens..each morning had a very heavy frost.

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13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Many monthly records are falling in western Canada. At 7 pm EDT, Abbotsford Airport and Cultus Lake, both in British Columbia, had a temperature of 24.1°C (75°F).

Strongest ridge on record for this time of year near that area. This is following the deepest trough on record for the PAC NW during the month of February.

https://mobile.twitter.com/bhensonweather/status/1108154502924791808

Great visualization of today's record-smashing 24°C (75°F) reading in Tofino, British Columbia (Vancouver Island). It's an unprecedented temp for any date outside the May-to-October window.

D0DEB8EA-E76B-4F6C-AD96-9B6FA3AC870E.thumb.png.d7383c7818813f4461bd02e7805c29a2.png

E9E78E9A-442B-47B1-BE7A-24CFBDAEA204.jpeg.419ba6db68296144f723583b06c41b59.jpeg

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Possibility of late-season measurable snow next week persists...

Tomorrow into late Friday, a powerful storm will bring a moderate to heavy rainfall to the big cities of the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions. A general 0.50"-1.50" appears likely (with the higher amounts coming in north and west of of New York City).

The greatest prospect of snowfall amounts of 4" or more exists in the Adirondacks, across northern Vermont and New Hampshire, western Maine, and northwest of Trois Rivieres and Quebec City. Some amounts of 6" or more are likely, especially in the Adirondacks and the region north and west of Trois Rivieres and Quebec City. At the height of the storm, travel from Quebec City to Chicoutimi could be very difficult.

Next week, the March 26-28 period still appears to provide the potential for measurable snowfall in such cities as Boston, New York, and Philadelphia. The following number of EPS ensemble members shows 4" or more snow:

Boston: 8/51 (5/51 have 10" or more)
New York City: 6/51
Philadelphia: 6/51

Finally, based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability that March will wind up below normal in New York City is approximately 80%. The implied probability that New York City will have a mean temperature 1° or more below normal is 65%.

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53 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Tomorrow looks like one of those days where it's not going to be heavy but steady rain all day long

Much needed after the dry period we entered. :)

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2 hours ago, nzucker said:

Just planted arugula and lettuce. Hope it doesn't get snowed on TOO hard.

I tried to clean out my planter boxes yesterday to get things started but they're still half frozen.

Someone needs to start a garden/gardening thread.

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Mt.Holly/Upton Ref: Thursday and Friday

Mt.Holly:

 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... 
  Main story will continue to be strengthening coastal low as it moves  
  north. Forecast models continue to trend wetter with this system now  
  indicating a good potential for 1-2+ inches of rainfall to occur  
  over much of eastern PA into northern NJ. There will be rises on the  
  rivers but since conditions have been dry we don`t think this will  
  cause widespread hydro issues...at least on the mainstem rivers.  
  However the smaller creeks and streams will have to be watched as  
  some of these could overspill their banks, especially in areas that  
  see over 1.5 inches of rain. Urban and poor drainage type flooding  
  could also become an issue in spots though it doesn`t appear  
  rainfall rates will be enough for flash flooding. In terms of  
  details, surface low will continue to deepen through tomorrow as it  
  moves northward from Virginia toward the Delmarva by late day.  
  Expect an area wide all day type rainfall event for the area with  
  the heaviest rainfall rates looking to be over central and eastern  
  PA and eventually northern NJ. As mentioned in the near term  
  section, precip is likely to begin as a rain/snow mix over portions  
  of the southern Poconos but this should change to all rain by mid  
  morning. Highs thursday range from the upper 30s/low 40s over the  
  southern Poconos and NW NJ to the low to mid 50s over southern NJ  
  and the Delmarva.  
   
  Thursday night...low pressure continues to deepen as it moves N/NE  
  right over NJ then onward to southern New England. Rain will  
  continue at least into the early evening before tapering off SW to  
  NE as the system departs. In fact as cooler air is wrapped in behind  
  the system the rain is likely to end as a bit of wet snow over  
  the Poconos with some minor accumulation possible.  
   
  Heading into Friday, conditions should start mainly dry as the still  
  deepening low moves northeast through New England. Winds will  
  be gusty though as the pressure gradient increases behind the  
  departing system. NW winds gusting at least 20 to 30 mph can be  
  expected by the afternoon. Also during the afternoon, as the  
  main shortwave associated with the upper level low dives S/E  
  through the area this will spark some showers returning across  
  the area. Highs will range from around 40 over the southern  
  Poconos to the low to mid 50s over SE PA into central and  
  southern NJ.  
   
  The big concern for stronger winds looks to be Friday night into 
  Saturday as the pressure gradient tightens across the area in  
  the wake of a secondary cold front that crosses the area Friday  
  evening. Expecting peak gusts of at least 30 to 40 mph but have  
  some concerns gusts of 40 to 50 mph could be realized for a time 
  Friday night immediately following the passage of the front as  
  cold advection aids in mix down potential. However timing with  
  the diurnal cycle will be a mitigating factor. Cooler  
  temperatures will be the other story with low temps Friday night 
  generally in the 20s to low 30s and highs Saturday mainly in  
  the 30s and 40s except around 50 over the Delmarva. Combined  
  with the wind, this will result in wind chills in the 20s and  
  30s so a good 10 degrees colder than the actual temps.  
  Otherwise, other than a few lingering snow showers over the  
  southern Poconos area should be precip free under variable cloud 
  cover. &&

Upton:

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave within the longwave trough begins to phase with a
southern stream shortwave on Thursday with the trough becoming
negatively tilted Thursday night. This will guide the surface
low towards us as it continues to strengthen. Rain spreads
across most, if not all of the area by day`s end. The low then
passes through late at night with just a chance of lingering
light rainfall by the end of the night. Temperatures through the
event will be in the 40s.

This appears to be mainly a moderate rainfall event. The best
chances of any heavier downpours appear to be during the late
afternoon to evening hours. Along with a little elevated
instability, this is when the area will be on the NE side of a
theta- e ridge with relatively stronger moisture convergence and
enhanced lift via a low level jet. Currently not anticipating
any flash flooding issues, however there is at least a threat of
minor urban/smaller stream flooding, more so across NE NJ based
on 6 and 12-hour flash flood guidance values. Don`t have at
least 50% confidence of exceeding FFG values so will hold off on
issuing a watch.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strengthening NW winds will be the main issue as low pressure
passing through the area early Fri morning continues to phase
with a digging northern stream trough on its back side and
intensifies into a 980-ish mb low on its way through the Gulf of
Maine and into the Canadian Maritimes. Expect sustained winds at
least 25-30 mph with gusts 40-45 mph as the pressure gradient
tightens late Fri night into Sat, with the strongest winds in
the NYC metro area and across Long Island. Largest pressure
rises likely to pass mainly well north, but could clip southern
CT and eastern Long Island late day Sat and keep period of
strongest winds going into the evening there.

 

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It looks like the 18z NAM increased rainfall amounts over a good portion of NJ for Thursday/Friday. Now showing 2-3" with 1-2" amounts everywhere else.

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