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snowman19

March, 2019

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10 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

The August sun angle doesn't arrive until April.

...thats correct..actually april 11th starts the aug. sun angle.

another interesting tidbit is the sunrise/sunset on the vernal equinox is directly due E/W..

good time to make sure your weather vanes are properly calibrated..i know i will..

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Could be looking at some decent thunderstorm activity in the region on Friday. Lapse rates are stellar and there will be a decent wind field associated with the Plains bomb as it shifts into Canada.

lapse.thumb.PNG.0e1f1eac10123422a3ea829b1d162fd1.PNG

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Euro has a big storm way offshore next week. Shift it west and we would be in business.

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First full week of the sailing season started yesterday. Went out in shorts and spray gear. I've missed it since my last time in November

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16 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

It's all relative person to person, really. If you're an early riser or someone that needs to be on the road by 6am for work, you probably don't like the late sunrises. On the other hand, a lot of other people (myself included) love the later sunsets. The only thing I hate about Winter is that it's dark by 445-5pm.

The whole kids waiting in the dark for the bus pickup argument is probably one of the biggest factors against this possible move. I do think that whole scope of that argument will slowly switch/go away at some point in the future due to schools having a later start time for students which has been happening more and more, albeit slowly, around the county

I love the later sunsets and I was just going to suggest starting schools an hour later lol, you stole my words :P

When I was in school, we used to start at 8 am and come home at 3 pm.  I think it would be fine to start school at 9 am and end at 4 pm.

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14 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The March 1-10 average temperature in New York City was 32.3° (7.0° below normal). That was the coldest opening 10 days of the month since 1996 when the mean temperature was just 29.3°. Last year, the mean temperature for the first 10 days of March was 39.4°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.50°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C for the week centered around March 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.69°C. Similar ENSO conditions will likely persist through much of March.

The SOI was -16.61 today. It has been negative for 33 out of the last 34 days.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.637. The AO has now been positive for 32 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the April 13, 2018 through June 3, 2018 period when the AO was positive for 52 consecutive days. Historic probabilities favor the continuation of a predominantly positive AO through the remainder of March.

On March 10, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.796 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat lower than the March 9-adjusted figure of 2.093. The MJO could lose amplitude in coming days as it heads back toward Phase 3. As the seasonal tendency has favored high amplitudes, there is a distinct possibility that it could reach Phase 3 at a high amplitude. Afterward, there is some possibility it could reach Phase 2 before resuming forward progression. However, based on historic experience, it is more likely than not that the MJO won't go all the way back to Phase 2.

Temperatures will likely remain generally above normal through the next 5-8 days across much of the region. The warmth could peak around mid-month with the potential for readings in the 60s extending as far north as southern New England and 70s into the greater Washington, DC area.

Beyond that, the possibility exists for a return to cooler temperatures relative to normal into the closing week of the month. At that point, there could be some possibility for another measurable snowfall in at least parts of the region.

However, the probability of a shorter cool period has increased in recent days. A growing body of the latest guidance now suggests that the cooler period will likely be short-lived. Both the EPS and CFSv2 weekly data have moved into agreement that warmer than normal conditions could return near March 24. The 12z EPS is particularly aggressive with the warmth near the end of the month.

Don, Lee Goldberg has been talking about the idea for a measurable snowfall next week, around the 20th, what do you think of that possibility?

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4 hours ago, tim said:

...thats correct..actually april 11th starts the aug. sun angle.

another interesting tidbit is the sunrise/sunset on the vernal equinox is directly due E/W..

good time to make sure your weather vanes are properly calibrated..i know i will..

we've seen moderate to big snowfalls at the coast as late as April 10 (1996).  The sun angle has more of an effect on heavily urbanized artificial environments.

 

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20 hours ago, forkyfork said:

corollary: the time of year won't help with a marginal airmass. see january 2008

at the same time though we did really well with marginal airmasses in the winter of 2009-10.  in March that comes to an end.

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19 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

True, but it's beyond annoying how much he exaggerates.  August sun angle, really?  Where the heck does he come up with that?

he's really dedicated to his trolling lol.  If this was some kind of corporate or political trolling I'd say he was getting paid to troll, otherwise why bother lol.

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34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

he's really dedicated to his trolling lol.  If this was some kind of corporate or political trolling I'd say he was getting paid to troll, otherwise why bother lol.

I hate going back and forth with people and taking up space in the forums, but I can't stand misinformation.

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42 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, Lee Goldberg has been talking about the idea for a measurable snowfall next week, around the 20th, what do you think of that possibility?

There has been persistent model support for the 18th. That would be a light event as things currently stand. There could be a strong offshore system around the 20th, but it might be too far to the east to have a meaningful impact here. Still, there’s a lot of time, so things could change.

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7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

There has been persistent model support for the 18th. That would be a light event as things currently stand. There could be a strong offshore system around the 20th, but it might be too far to the east to have a meaningful impact here. Still, there’s a lot of time, so things could change.

Does that look like the last chance for this season?  So very little possibility of getting something in early April like we did last season?

 

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58 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Does that look like the last chance for this season?  So very little possibility of getting something in early April like we did last season?

 

Don't need Don to tell you that climo says April snow is rare and given the less-than-stellar pattern forecasts beyond about 2 weeks this winter, I wouldn't get too caught up in what anyone says today about early April.  

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4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I love the later sunsets and I was just going to suggest starting schools an hour later lol, you stole my words :P

When I was in school, we used to start at 8 am and come home at 3 pm.  I think it would be fine to start school at 9 am and end at 4 pm.

That would eliminate most scholastic sports so while you might be ok with it many people wouldn't. 

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Reference: next week - beware smoothed out ensemble means. The first image is GEPS, EPS + GEFS valid next Tuesday AM, the 2nd the operational ECMWF, GEM, GFS + FV3. A concentrated positive anomaly on the ensemble means can mean a few things, including the potential for a blocking high. In this case, the means are hinting at an omega block across western Canada, w/ an upper low on either equatorward side of the anomalous PNA ridge.  Indeed, all of the operational runs are now evolving to such a block.

models-2019031212-f168.500h_anom_na.gif.718061d0fe94c64638cda46e9ad7c0e5.gif

2071174684_models-2019031212-f168.500h_anom.na(2).gif.d7bce9613a08f8dd9ca4cd1f3ef9fcb9.gif

Despite no AO, EPO or NAO blocking, the above to me combined with a potentially more coupled ocean-atmosphere El Nino suggests: 1) our pattern will be slower to evolve back to a mild one than currently modeled, and 2) a slow-moving cutoff near the SE or Mid-Atlantic coast is within the realm of possibility ~a day either side of next week's equinox.  Once the chilly air early-mid week moves out, the coldest air masses relative to normal over the CONUS may shift across the southern US. 850mb positive temp anomalies seen in much of the guidance will not necessarily portray what is to occur at the surface, depending on NE/Canada snow cover and surface high placement (i.e. cool onshore flow and/or backdoor cold fronts). Assuming eastern Canada maintains deep snow cover and a NW-flow pattern is established, it could be a bit of a roller coaster for us, with repeated invasions of colder than average air into the Northeast interspersed with 1-to-2-day warm-ups.

The 12Z EPS, though often of little use beyond D7-10 this past winter, is holding on to the +PNA longer than the past couple runs. It will be important to watch how the index evolves over the next several days for those hoping for a flip to true, extended spring warmth.

Bottom line - enjoy the milder weather Thursday-Saturday. An anomalously warm long-term pattern appears unlikely in NYC anytime soon.

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1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

That would eliminate most scholastic sports so while you might be ok with it many people wouldn't. 

that's why HS starting at 8:30 or 9am is not likely to happen in most places...

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14 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

That would eliminate most scholastic sports so while you might be ok with it many people wouldn't. 

Well, I'm not a big fan of scholastic sports, but this is the culture we live in, and the kids already have a ton of HW to do as it is, so I guess you would be right in that parents wouldn't want some of the sports to be later, though there's no reason most can't be done under lights ( except x country maybe )

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Great post.There is certainly the risk that the +PNA lingers beyond the day 10 period. The strong MJO in phase 4 going into the circle along with the more -SOI would favor that. Fits the theme of recent years having delayed starts to spring. I could definitely see some spring lovers rooting for a repeat of March 2012 in future years. Seems like a long time ago with the colder and snowier Marches since 2013.

 

 

figures the MJO goes into phase 4, hits a brick wall then heads to 8-where was that in January?!?!?!

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a delayed spring followed by three months of 80 degree dewpoints

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24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Great post. There is certainly the risk that the +PNA lingers beyond the day 10 period. The strong MJO in phase 4 going into the circle along with the more -SOI would favor that. Fits the theme of recent years having delayed starts to spring. I could definitely see some spring lovers rooting for a repeat of March 2012 in future years. Seems like a long time ago with the colder and snowier Marches since 2013.

Thanks! The recent trend for delayed spring warmth has been in the back of my mind since last fall, and I see no reason to stray from that line of thought for now. 

2012 does seem like a long time ago. I was in Madison, WI then - warmest March by far there (earliest 80s, etc, etc).

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Through March 12, Caribou has received 153.2" snow. As a result, winter 2018-19 is Caribou's 4th snowiest winter on record. The record-setting winter of 2007-08 had 170.1" snow through March 12.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.50°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C for the week centered around March 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.69°C. Similar ENSO conditions will likely persist through much of March.

The SOI was -14.12 today. It has been negative for 34 out of the last 35 days.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.960. The AO has now been positive for 33 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the April 13, 2018 through June 3, 2018 period when the AO was positive for 52 consecutive days. Historic probabilities favor the continuation of a predominantly positive AO through the remainder of March.

On March 11, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.492 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat lower than the March 10-adjusted figure of 1.794. The MJO could lose amplitude in coming days as it heads back toward Phase 3. As the seasonal tendency has favored high amplitudes, there is a distinct possibility that it could reach Phase 3 at a high amplitude. Afterward, there is some possibility it could reach Phase 2 before resuming forward progression. However, based on historic experience, it is more likely than not that the MJO won't go all the way back to Phase 2.

Temperatures will likely remain generally above normal through the next 4-7 days across much of the region. The warmth could peak around mid-month with the potential for readings in the 60s extending as far north as southern New England and 70s into the greater Washington, DC area.

Beyond that, the possibility exists for a return to cooler temperatures relative to normal into the closing week of the month. At that point, there could be some possibility for another measurable snowfall in at least parts of the region. March 18 might offer the strongest prospect of such a snowfall.

However, the probability of a shorter cool period has increased in recent days. A growing body of the latest guidance now suggests that the cooler period will likely be short-lived. Both the EPS and CFSv2 weekly data have moved into agreement that warmer than normal conditions could return near March 24. The 12z EPS is particularly aggressive with the warmth near the end of the month.

Finally, patterns similar to the current one in March have often been followed by a warmer than normal April. Both the EPS and CFSv2 favor a warmer than normal April in the region.

 

 

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5 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Don't need Don to tell you that climo says April snow is rare and given the less-than-stellar pattern forecasts beyond about 2 weeks this winter, I wouldn't get too caught up in what anyone says today about early April.  

The years it did happen we had very cold winters overall, or at least cold back half of winters/early springs (1981-82, 1995-96, 2002-03 and last year.)

 

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6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Does that look like the last chance for this season?  So very little possibility of getting something in early April like we did last season?

 

It's difficult to be certain. However, it is very unlikely that April would see a snowfall as large as last year's (5.5" in NYC).

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3 hours ago, gravitylover said:

That would eliminate most scholastic sports so while you might be ok with it many people wouldn't. 

we used to stay until 6 pm or so for sports and other extracurricular activities.  sometimes go home and come back and stay until 8

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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

a delayed spring followed by three months of 80 degree dewpoints

regardless of how cold or cool it might be, the hot weather always seems to get in here by May.  No spring could be as cold and stormy as last year's was, and even that had a mini heat wave in early May.

Heat is delayed but not denied......

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5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It's difficult to be certain. However, it is very unlikely that April would see a snowfall as large as last year's (5.5" in NYC).

I see that we've had measurable April snows even in mild seasonal patterns (like April 1990, when we received an inch of snow after it had already been in the mid and upper 80s in the middle of March!)  It's the significant snows (4" or more) that are rare unless we've had a cold winter.

 

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