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snowman19

March, 2019

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9 minutes ago, WEATHERMINATOR said:

It isn’t rain. Check the model

You’re not getting 1-3” of snow Saturday but I wish you Good luck

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If you believe the EPS our best shot IS Sunday.  If you believe the pattern tendencies this year though then Sunday’s would be rain and the next event would be our biggest snow of the winter 

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I know sunday night into monday is the much bigger potential, but 18z NAM has a 2 inch snowfall for NYC friday morning which ramps up to 4 inches for southern NJ. The same system that GGEM was showing as a 4 to 6 inch snowstorm for us a couple days ago. Still have to keep an eye on it according to NAM.

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3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

You’re not getting 1-3” of snow Saturday but I wish you Good luck

Even if this were true, 1-3" is weak and I'm sick of these pathetic events. It might as well be rain.

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Even if this were true, 1-3" is weak and I'm sick of these pathetic events. It might as well be rain.

Well we get about 2 when a little more is expected, so going by that an expected 1-3 should mean a few snow showers. If that.

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3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Even if this were true, 1-3" is weak and I'm sick of these pathetic events. It might as well be rain.

You know you arent being held hostage here right? Just making sure. 

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15 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Nam still has the follow up wave for Friday. 1-3 inch deal for the coast.

Friday is all over the place right now.  Euro wants no part of it but wants something significant Saturday night into Sunday which almost no other model has 

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3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Friday is all over the place right now.  Euro wants no part of it but wants something significant Saturday night into Sunday which almost no other model has 

Yea seems to still be a ton of uncertainty all around with all these events.  

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NAM does look very interesting for thursday night into friday morning. It gets 4 to 5 inches of snow up to Monmouth and Ocean Counties, and 3 almost up to NYC. Maybe GGEM was onto something when it kept showing this for a couple days. 

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1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

NAM does look very interesting for thursday night into friday morning. It gets 4 to 5 inches of snow up to Monmouth and Ocean Counties, and 3 almost up to NYC. Maybe GGEM was onto something when it kept showing this for a couple days. 

The RGEM at 48 looks more like the Euro and would likely be way south 

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28 minutes ago, WEATHERMINATOR said:

Canadian is a big snowstorm for monday

For well to the northwest. This run is actually mostly rain for NYC. Models continue to be all over the place.

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Fv3 is back on for our best event of the year for Monday. Not in fantasy range range anymore but can't seem to get any consensus. Canadian and Euro are too warm for NYC, shocker.

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Just now, Ericjcrash said:

Fv3 is back on for our best event of the year for Monday. Not in fantasy range range anymore but can't seem to get any consensus. Canadian and Euro are too warm for NYC, shocker.

Regular gfs also

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20 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Just a 1-3" scraper,  but close.

Eps is similiar to the Gfs

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Now that we are entering March, anything that falls next week won't be around long with that stronger March sun. Ready for Spring.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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Who cares what the FV3 shows? Confirmed worst model out there. So incredibly horrible that NWS won’t even implement due to all the complaints about its abysmal performance 

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Any kind of big spring warmup is going to get delayed if the MJO weakens before getting to the warmer 5-6 phases for March. This would mean a colder start to March would transition to closer to normal. But nothing too extreme in the warmth department for this time of year. Back doors could become an issue if the models are correct about all the high pressure building in SE Canada longer range.

5678830D-FBB3-4967-9283-F89A5267F01C.gif.7341b632a29ca9cf65663e47136d6845.gif

 

 

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50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Any kind of big spring warmup is going to get delayed if the MJO weakens before getting to the warmer 5-6 phases for March. This would mean a colder start to March would transition to closer to normal. But nothing too extreme in the warmth department for this time of year. Back doors could become an issue if the models are correct about all the high pressure building in SE Canada longer range.

A colder March overall wouldn't shock me, that's been the theme lately. I think too many were quick to pull the torch trigger.

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5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

A colder March overall wouldn't shock me, that's been the theme lately. I think too many were quick to pull the torch trigger.

The MJO never missed an opportunity to make a strong push into 5-6 over the winter. But now that we are headed into March, models want to weaken it around phase 4. For some reason, we saw similar MJO weakening near phase 4 over the last 2 Marches. 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Any kind of big spring warmup is going to get delayed if the MJO weakens before getting to the warmer 5-6 phases for March. This would mean a colder start to March would transition to closer to normal. But nothing too extreme in the warmth department for this time of year. Back doors could become an issue if the models are correct about all the high pressure building in SE Canada longer range.

5678830D-FBB3-4967-9283-F89A5267F01C.gif.7341b632a29ca9cf65663e47136d6845.gif

 

 

I hope this is wrong.

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