NycStormChaser Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Looks like a nice storm just south of Allentown PA. Nothing crazy but decent for this time of year per radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 The few models that have the wave show it coming through early morning. Low level temps and thicknesses are plenty cold for accumulating snow should there be a narrow fronto/defo band just N of the low. Not unlike the system early last April...Maybe it's my location? Central Long island.High 43 degrees Monday.Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 Looking more and more likely a few of these storms could become severe this evening. We're getting 925mb moisture advection timed with a weakening of the stout cap that's been in place all day. The surface heating really helped out low level lapse rates (to achieve some potential downbursts), but a number of features are coming together at the right time. Mid-level lapse rates have weakened a bit from those observed on this morning's soundings, but they're more than enough. Wind fields easily support gusts of 40-50KT and the shear present also may support a few rotating (elevated) storms with small hail. Most of the hi-res shows these isolated individual cells joining up into a squall line this evening. Should at least get a good light show this evening. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 26 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Looking more and more likely a few of these storms could become severe this evening. We're getting 925mb moisture advection timed with a weakening of the stout cap that's been in place all day. The surface heating really helped out low level lapse rates (to achieve some potential downbursts), but a number of features are coming together at the right time. Mid-level lapse rates have weakened a bit from those observed on this morning's soundings, but they're more than enough. Wind fields easily support gusts of 40-50KT and the shear present also may support a few rotating (elevated) storms with small hail. Most of the hi-res shows these isolated individual cells joining up into a squall line this evening. Should at least get a good light show this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 According to DT (Wxrisk) winter is over in the mid-atlantic region and I agree. He also says it will be dry for the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 7 hours ago, bluewave said: 51 here near the GSB with a southerly winds gusting into the 30’s and SST still near 40. 52 now here. Topped out at 58. The wind has made today less enjoyable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave0176 Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 I went out for quick ride on my bike and as my luck would have it, it started to rain, so I had to high tail it home and the sun came out lol............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 Line looks as good as anything we see deep in summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 Nice rotation near washington,nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Line looks as good as anything we see deep in summer Amazing how this line came together. Could pass as a June night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrapin8100 Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 2 hours ago, purduewx80 said: Looking more and more likely a few of these storms could become severe this evening. We're getting 925mb moisture advection timed with a weakening of the stout cap that's been in place all day. The surface heating really helped out low level lapse rates (to achieve some potential downbursts), but a number of features are coming together at the right time. Mid-level lapse rates have weakened a bit from those observed on this morning's soundings, but they're more than enough. Wind fields easily support gusts of 40-50KT and the shear present also may support a few rotating (elevated) storms with small hail. Most of the hi-res shows these isolated individual cells joining up into a squall line this evening. Should at least get a good light show this evening. Nice call. Severe thunderstorm warning for here in Westchester County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 Insanely heavy downpours and lots of lightning. Good work Purdue. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0222.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 Wow impressive line of storms for this time of year. Hopefully a precursor of things to come this spring/summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 Heavy rain, some wind. Impressive lighting. Not much thunder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 Sitting in the Newark Airport Terminal A bus parking lot and there's quite the impressive light show going on to my west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 We've got hail now. 1/4" it looks like. Incredibly heavy rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 We are probably going to have a better severe season then we had snow season. I am OK with that. Hope for better next winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 Courtesy of the combination of breaks of sunshine and an exceptionally warm air mass aloft, today saw the warmest readings since last autumn. In a few locations, the mercury approached or reached the daily record high temperature. Some highlights: Albany: 72° (tied record set in 1989) -- warmest reading since October 11, 2018 (72°) Allentown: 74° -- warmest reading since October 11, 2018 (79°) New York City: 75° -- warmest reading since October 11, 2018 (77°) Newark: 77° -- warmest reading since October 11, 2018 (81°) Philadelphia: 77° -- warmest reading since October 11, 2018 (83°) Poughkeepsie: 72° -- warmest reading since October 11, 2018 (75°) Teterboro: 76° -- warmest reading since November 2, 2018 (79°) Trenton: 74° (old record: 72°, 1971 and 2002) -- warmest reading since October 11, 2018 (82°) Wilmington, DE: 79° -- warmest reading since October 11, 2018 (83°) The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.50°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C for the week centered around March 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.69°C. Similar ENSO conditions will likely persist through much of March. The SOI was -8.33 today. It has been negative for 37 out of the last 38 days. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.381. The AO has now been positive for 36 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the April 13, 2018 through June 3, 2018 period when the AO was positive for 52 consecutive days. Historic probabilities favor the continuation of a predominantly positive AO through the remainder of March. On March 14, the MJO moved into Phase 3 with at a low amplitude, 0.809 (RMM). The amplitude was lower than the March 13-adjusted figure of 1.063. The MJO will likely remain in Phase 3 at a low amplitude for at least several days. Following today's warmth, a brief shot of cooler air will move into the East. There is even the possibility of some light rain or snow across parts of the northern Middle Atlantic region on Monday morning. However, by late next week temperatures could again be rising to levels above seasonal norms. In part, the forecast strongly positive PNA will contribute to that outcome. Unlike during January and the first half of February, shorter wave lengths now result in the PNA's having a direct relationship with regional temperatures and an inverse relationship with snowfall prospects. During the March 16-31, 1950-2018 period, the mean temperature in New York City was +1.1° above climatology when the PNA was +1.000 or above. The mean temperature was 0.5° below climatology when the PNA was negative. In terms of snowfall, the frequency of measurable snow events in New York City was somewhat less than half of climatology when the PNA was +1.000 or above while that frequency was just over 40% above climatology when the PNA was negative. Based on the latest guidance, New York City's average temperature for the March 16-31 period could be approximately 1.6° above normal. As a result, the implied probability of a colder than normal March in New York City has decreased to 55%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 I can't believe I might miss the 1st severe weather event of the season 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 I got 1.08” in 30 minutes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 Hail in Ridgewood NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 Just drove east on 84 through Brewster and then back on NY 301, what a gnarly ride. Heavy downpours, relatively frequent lightning, and incredibly dense fog. Some stretches where I couldn't even begin to see the yellow line, in low areas that still had some snow OTG. Fun evening down that way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, Nibor said: Hail in Ridgewood NJ Yeah friend in Hawthorne said it was pretty bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 Waiting for storm to arrive in Piscataway, lightning has stopped though the radar is just as ripe as ever. Few drops of rain and gusty winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 You can see the line is starting to weaken a bit as it moves closer to the coast but still impressive for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexj7 Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 Looks to be weakening. I don't think we'll see much in the city except some rain possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 Just now, Rtd208 said: You can see the line is starting to weaken a bit as it moves closer to the coast but still impressive for this time of year. Yeah no lightning left just heavy rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah friend in Hawthorne said it was pretty bad 1/4 inch size hail, severe lightning and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, alexj7 said: Looks to be weakening. I don't think we'll see much in the city except some rain possibly. Still some cloud to cloud lightning over the city but it definitely died out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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