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March, 2019


snowman19
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20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

You called for a torch and said winter was done when March hit. You'll be wrong on both fronts.

I see warm-up, I don't see torch. 

Dr. Jeckyll and Mr. Hyde. That’s not what I said stop misquoting me. I said after the 1st week of March, it was done. It’s really is meaningless what you see, all winter long you were cancelling winter then bringing it back 

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7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

There is a big warm up coming though. Starting this weekend (tomorrow) right through St. Patrick’s Day, over a week

 

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days averaging 42degs., or about 2degs AN.

Just 28* here at 6am, 29* at 7am.

Classic

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5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Classic torch end of next week. Enjoy. Winter’s last gasps were this week. Fat lady is singing, it’s over Johnny, say goodnight and goodbye, ship is sailing

Bold call in mid march, good luck to you. 

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Period to watch is 3/17-23.  Semi-favorable TCs, while it still matters some.

Anyone know what it indicates when the Control Member is off-scale[ >6sd]  for a week, while the Mean is just 1sd, during same timeframe.    Specifically, this is for the EURO's EPO the first week of April:  -6sd  versus -1sd.   I thought the start of April might be AN.    Wondering now if home openers for Mets/Yanks are winterlike at night.

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We went from one of the highest first week of February maximum temperatures to one of the lowest for March. This is a remarkable max temperature drop from 65 to only 42. Another 2010’s extreme.

NYC 

Lowest max week 1 March

1 1960-03-07 36 0
- 1870-03-07 36 0
3 1978-03-07 37 0
4 1917-03-07 39 0
- 1905-03-07 39 0
- 1891-03-07 39 0
7 2014-03-07 40 0
- 1916-03-07 40 0
- 1893-03-07 40 0
- 1888-03-07 40 0
11 1911-03-07 41 0
- 1886-03-07 41 0
13 2019-03-07 42 0

Highest max week 1 February

1 1991-02-07 70 0
2 2008-02-07 68 0
- 1890-02-07 68 0
4 1989-02-07 67 0
5 2019-02-07 65 0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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9 hours ago, mattinpa said:

Nice write up as always, Don. Do you think we have a window for a more significant snowstorm around March 20? Models are still showing the potential on some runs. 

The potential for snowfall will likely be above climatology for the March 20-28 period (and maybe again during the first week of April). It's too soon to be sure about potential significant storms. Before then, the long-modeled warmup will get underway and likely peak around mid-month.

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1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

Bold call in mid march, good luck to you. 

Not really that bold. Look at the week after St. Patrick’s Day. Still a very positive NAO. If there was a -NAO block showing up like last year, and the last few March’s, then you have an argument. Once you get to 3/15, climatology alone at our latitude says it’s over minus a freak event and even then, how many major snowstorms have hit the NYC metro area after that date, in history? It gets even worse by 3/20, Equinox. You have a late August/early September sun angle overhead at that point, long days. And late March “cold” is totally different than winter (Dec, Jan, Feb) cold. Our average temps are skyrocketing at that point. “Cold” compared to average isn’t all that cold 

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7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Not really that bold. Look at the week after St. Patrick’s Day. Still a very positive NAO. If there was a -NAO block showing up like last year, and the last few March’s, then you have an argument. Once you get to 3/15, climatology alone at our latitude says it’s over minus a freak event and even then, how many major snowstorms have hit the NYC metro area after that date, in history? It gets even worse by 3/20, Equinox. You have a late August/early September sun angle overhead at that point, long days. And late March “cold” is totally different than winter (Dec, Jan, Feb) cold. Our average temps are skyrocketing at that point. “Cold” compared to average isn’t all that cold 

Fact is that it can snow here into April so it isn’t a definite that winter is over just yet. A robust enough pna into the arctic can easily do it

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36 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Not really that bold. Look at the week after St. Patrick’s Day. Still a very positive NAO. If there was a -NAO block showing up like last year, and the last few March’s, then you have an argument. Once you get to 3/15, climatology alone at our latitude says it’s over minus a freak event and even then, how many major snowstorms have hit the NYC metro area after that date, in history? It gets even worse by 3/20, Equinox. You have a late August/early September sun angle overhead at that point, long days. And late March “cold” is totally different than winter (Dec, Jan, Feb) cold. Our average temps are skyrocketing at that point. “Cold” compared to average isn’t all that cold 

He meant calling for torch in MAR is like calling for heat wave in JUL:lol:

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2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

There isn't a torch coming.

Given the last couple days, I will not be surprised to see a significant wet snow type event later in March. I know your area didn't do so well Sunday, but both Sat and Sun were decent out in the surrounding suburbs. And the pack has held on for a few days. Can't call the whole winter a fail after this. Missed all of Dec and Jan and most of Feb though.

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31 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Fact is that it can snow here into April so it isn’t a definite that winter is over just yet. A robust enough pna into the arctic can easily do it

April snows are kinda rare, but then so are November snows...it snowed in April here last year. Decent event too.

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