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March, 2019


snowman19
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We finally got the cold and snowy El Niño Modoki conditions that the long range seasonal models were anticipating for this winter. I guess this is an example of better late than never. Also notice how we had the most negative February SOI on record following such a positive December reading. 

ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/sco/soi/soiplaintext.html

6939B95C-E7EC-41FA-B7A5-3C0649D46EDE.png.87b2d25f23e1f1e366e098b166ff75ef.png

 

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Based on the MOS, there's a chance that Central Park's high temperature will remain below 30° today. The last March maximum temperature below 30° in New York City occurred on March 15, 2017 when the temperature topped out at 26°. That was also New York City's last subfreezing maximum temperature in March.

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With the final Arctic Oscillation (AO) data in for February and the preliminary data for March, the current stretch of positive AO days is 27. That streak began one day earlier than had been shown in the preliminary February data.

Overall, the AO averaged +0.144 during the December-February period. 52% of days had values > 0 and 47% of days had figures < 0. There was one day with a value of 0.000. In addition, 29% of days had values of +1.000 or above while 23% days had values of -1.000 or below. Both the highest and lowest AO readings occurred in February. The lowest figure was -3.315, which occurred on February 1. The highest figure was +3.354, which occurred on February 19.

For those keeping track, the 27 consecutive days of positive values is the longest such stretch since the AO was positive for 30 consecutive days from August 6, 2018 through September 4, 2018.

 

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Well, the 12Z GFS, FV3, and NAM are all showing an inch or so for Friday late afternoon/evening (it better be after 4-5 pm if we want accumulations without heavy snow in March), while the CMC shows very little. The GFS, FV3 and CMC also all show some decent snowfall at the beginning of the Sat night/Sunday storm, with several inches possible well to the NW of 95 (like NW of 287/80 and N of the Tappan Zee), with the FV3 (of course, bringing decent snowfall the closest to the 95 corridor).  So some mild interest in tracking these, although I doubt we get much from either system along 95.  

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4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

No it definitely feels like 27 or 25 at least over here. Gusty winds adding to the chill. 

Feels like a mid Jan day with ice pack OTG. Can't believe how fast the weather changes around here. It feels plenty cold, and the snow mounds from plowing are huge, because the ones from Sat didn't melt and got piled on again Sunday night. Can barely see the stop sign down the street the mound is so high. Basically 10-12 inches in two days in some parts, more in others. Surprisingly, friends in Old Bridge didn't even know we had close to 5 inches up here Sat, and that's only 20 mins away to the south. 

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30 minutes ago, terrapin8100 said:

Where in my post did I say it can’t snow after the 20th? It can and has. That wasn’t the point. The point was ‘a really good’ winter pattern developing come March 20th. That would be the problem right there. It’s spring at that point. It’s not Nov 20th or Dec 20th or Jan 20th, or even Feb 20th, it’s March. At our latitude. You have a late August/early September sun angle overhead at that point, climatology fighting you, length of day fighting you. Time to realize, winter’s days are numbered

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51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Decent long range signal for a major storm of some type around the the start of spring on the 20th. Very high astronomical tides with the full moon on March 21st.

 

AFC88547-3BBA-4D00-B4AD-9E9B9A0B647C.thumb.png.543b59a282926e8cb7daa8fb04a94616.png

I wonder if we can manage to maintain the streak of wintry events on or near the 20th.

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Today's high temperature in Central Park was 26°. That was the first subfreezing March high temperature and coldest March maximum reading since March 15, 2017 when the temperature also topped out at 26°. The low temperature of 19° was also New York City's coldest March temperature since March 12, 2017 when the temperature fell to 19°. Tomorrow morning could see a similar or somewhat colder minimum temperature.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.40°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.10°C for the week centered around February 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C.

Similar ENSO conditions will likely persist through much of March with some possible fluctuations to just below weak El Niño levels. Some guidance suggests the potential some additional warming of ENSO Region 3.4 in coming weeks.

The SOI was -8.66 today. It has been negative for 28 out of the last 29 days.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.744. The AO has now been positive for 27 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the August 6, 2018 through September 4, 2018 period when the AO was positive for 30 consecutive days.

On March 5, the MJO moved into Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.558 (RMM). The amplitude was little changed from the March 4-adjusted figure of 2.527. The MJO will likely advance toward Phase 4 over the next 1-3 days. There is some uncertainty as to whether it will reach Phase 4 or head toward lower amplitudes. The seasonal tendency has favored high amplitudes and recent guidance suggests that the probability of its reaching Phase 4 has increased.

After perhaps a period of light snow or flurries late Friday or Friday night, temperatures will very likely warm up during the coming weekend. Readings could remain warmer than normal for at least 7-10 days, limiting opportunities for snowfall. Beyond that, the possibility exists for a return to cooler temperatures relative to normal during the closing 7-10 days of the month.

Finally, since 1869, New York City has had 10 cases during the March 1-7 period when 6.0" or more snow fell and the average temperature was 32.0° or below. All 10 cases had additional measurable snowfall afterward, including 8 cases with measurable snowfall in April. Mean and median snowfall from March 8-April 30 was 9.1". Lowest snowfall during that period was 0.5" in 1893. Highest snowfall during that period was 18.5" in 1875. 60% of the cases saw 6" or more total snowfall during that period.

Mean April snowfall for those cases was 4.0" while median April snowfall was 2.8". Should measurable snow be recorded in April, 2019 would be the second consecutive year with measurable April snowfall. Last year, a storm brought 5.5" snow to New York City on April 2. The last time New York City saw two consecutive years with measurable snow in April occurred in 2003 and 2004.

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