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March, 2019


snowman19
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1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

NAM does look very interesting for thursday night into friday morning. It gets 4 to 5 inches of snow up to Monmouth and Ocean Counties, and 3 almost up to NYC. Maybe GGEM was onto something when it kept showing this for a couple days. 

The RGEM at 48 looks more like the Euro and would likely be way south 

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Any kind of big spring warmup is going to get delayed if the MJO weakens before getting to the warmer 5-6 phases for March. This would mean a colder start to March would transition to closer to normal. But nothing too extreme in the warmth department for this time of year. Back doors could become an issue if the models are correct about all the high pressure building in SE Canada longer range.

5678830D-FBB3-4967-9283-F89A5267F01C.gif.7341b632a29ca9cf65663e47136d6845.gif

 

 

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50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Any kind of big spring warmup is going to get delayed if the MJO weakens before getting to the warmer 5-6 phases for March. This would mean a colder start to March would transition to closer to normal. But nothing too extreme in the warmth department for this time of year. Back doors could become an issue if the models are correct about all the high pressure building in SE Canada longer range.

A colder March overall wouldn't shock me, that's been the theme lately. I think too many were quick to pull the torch trigger.

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5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

A colder March overall wouldn't shock me, that's been the theme lately. I think too many were quick to pull the torch trigger.

The MJO never missed an opportunity to make a strong push into 5-6 over the winter. But now that we are headed into March, models want to weaken it around phase 4. For some reason, we saw similar MJO weakening near phase 4 over the last 2 Marches. 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Any kind of big spring warmup is going to get delayed if the MJO weakens before getting to the warmer 5-6 phases for March. This would mean a colder start to March would transition to closer to normal. But nothing too extreme in the warmth department for this time of year. Back doors could become an issue if the models are correct about all the high pressure building in SE Canada longer range.

5678830D-FBB3-4967-9283-F89A5267F01C.gif.7341b632a29ca9cf65663e47136d6845.gif

 

 

I hope this is wrong.

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