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Upstate/Eastern New York


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25 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I know it’s out of range, but RGEM is pretty amped at 48. More than it’s 6z run, that’s for sure! I’m grasping at straws here guys. Lol

I think ROC -> east to SYR gets a 3-6" sideswipe.  BUF...maybe a bit less.  ALB may be in a great spot this time.  I wouldn't rule out an eventual more NW track that does even better.  We'll certainly have ratios in our favor (No Kuchera).  Interior SNE looks pretty good for this one but the coast is likely gonna changeover to slop and rain, which is pretty typical despite the past decade + of out-performance down there.  The fun is over. Back to old school gruel for winter fare ;)  

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The pattern then looks to become more active by the time we get
into later Sunday and Sunday night.

A shortwave and attendant developing low pressure system will be
tracking through the deep south Sunday, reaching the mid-atlantic
coast Sunday night. A broad area of accumulating snows will
develop within increasing isentropic lift north of this system
across the Ohio Valley and potentially extending as far north as
New York State. Model consensus is to keep the bulk of the
accumulating snow south of the area, with only the far northern
edge sneaking into the southern half of New York state,
potentially giving the western southern tier a few inches of
accumulation, mainly Sunday night.
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Between 8"-9" , one at the end of december and one in the middle of Feb..I have had many 6"-9" events just not the "big" one lol

Its been hard to sustain a west wind for more then several hours..

I have accumulated about 1000 fantasy Lake effect inches though..

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HWO

A storm system will pass by well to our south late this weekend.
This system will have the potential to generate several inches of
snow across western and north central New York late Sunday afternoon
into Monday morning...with the greatest snowfall expected across
Oswego and southern Lewis counties.

A very cold airmass following the weekend storm will support
accumulating lake snows Monday afternoon through at least Wednesday
night. Significant snowfall will be possible in the vicinity of the
Tug Hill plateau.
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