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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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Just now, tim123 said:

Ratios could be a 8 to 12 inch storm

For sure with that QPF. Mid levels are colder than many storms we’ve had this year (non lake effect of course). 

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If this thing stays the course of the 18z euro or comes even further NW, the I-95 and coastal tears will break a salinity record. 

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28 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Theres a partial phase on 18Z EURO thats why it came NW.  Wait till it enters the W coast and it becomes a cutter Saturday 18Z, lol!

1293526320_download(23).thumb.png.1f7913b8ba294e811ef44a492e06cf9a.png

12Z

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I love how you can see the phase being attempted on 18z. You can see the motion and dig. 

Crazy this is just a few days out and we still have lots of solutions. 

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6" is the top number for me. 

Fast mover, not seeing a "big one out of this"..

Nam bring the 1/2" line to Syracuse, blend of euro/Nam would yield 4"-6" here.. Hope to start seeing a west trend soon lol

snku_acc.us_ne (34).png

qpf_acc.us_ne (1).png

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I'm waiting till Saturday morning before I jump ship as thats when the energy, which sparks cyclogenesis once it jumps the Rockies, enters the west Coast completely this way the globals can ingest a decent amount of roab data, but not till then cause much can, and probably will change so we'll see.  I can see this actually coming so far West that we taint cause if that energy off the West Coast is stronger then look for more of a phase, but it can also be a weaker piece of energy, with no phase, and we get a glancing blow but I doubt we see nothing at all at this point.

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I agree the S/W in Ontario is the key driver for this storms ultimate track. If the EURO is right then the S/W is held back a bit allowing the southern stream to lift further north...however the GFS has been showing that same S/W ahead of the southern stream low and ultimately keeping it further south and east...time will tell after the low comes ashore over the Pacific Coast.

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GFS hasn’t been any more consistent just look at its handling of Saturday’s system over it’s past 5-6 runs.  At this rate Saturday will be a raging blizzard and Monday sunny and cold.

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Euro stinks..

0.10-0.25" LE just like the GFS and ukmet..

For whatever reason the 6z and 18z euro were much more amped then 12/0Z , keep that in mind lol

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Sat 12Z but I've been saying this isn't gonna happen unless that SW is much more amped than what the globals are showing as it enters the West Coast! 

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This energy is still out near the dateline in the Central Pacific so I won't worry about accuracy from any model let alone one that just missed this last event so.....

2047915899_download(26).thumb.png.395451498cb8e8330b19e3a8a3394598.png

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Nice shot I was able to get this early morning with the early Sunrise in the background but look at the ripple and the waves across my front yard, lol. They look like small waves on a pond but it's just snow yesterday, which melted, then refroze last night cause you can stand in the center of 2ft base, lol! -EPO rules combined with a -PNA just imagine a lightly negative NAO, man would we be in business!!
1ad9aa90a7a339dc1c9a4e9978288fb6.jpg

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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Wpc

A potentially more significant system will move up the coast quickly behind the first, bringing renewed snow to the northeast. Much uncertainty still revolves around this second system. While it is likely to be a more potent low, the track will be heavily dependent on the first system from Saturday, which will impact the position of the strongest baroclinic gradient. A stronger system Day 2 would likely produce a further SE track on Day 3, and the guidance has begun to trend that way overnight

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Sunday night...the deepening sfc low will track northeast across the
Carolinas to about Long Island. Am leaning more towards the ECMWF
solution rather than the GFS...which has a track that is at least
100 miles further to the southeast. While the strongest
frontogenetic forcing will remain well south and east of our region
in the proximity of a 40-50kt LLJ...there should be enough UL jet
support to keep steady accumulating snow in place for parts of the
region. This will mainly be the case for sites southeast of a line
from DKK to ROC and ART where several more inches of snow could
accumulate. Given the trend of the storm system from all of the
ensembles...it is looking less likely that anyone would pick up
warning criteria snowfall. However...an advisory criteria snow is
still in the cards. Will continue to highlight this event in the HWO
product. Stay tuned.

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

March 1st today! Heard the birds chirping this morning. It's coming.  :sun:

March 10th is when average highs start to be in the 40s at Buffalo. 

I love it. Next weekend the clocks change as well. So the sun will be setting at 7:30pm in 9 days 

Also way off topic but I also love March for March Madness. Lets go Bulls, I love the fact Buffalo has emerged on the National stage. Ranked top 25 all season and finally getting some respect. 

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

March 1st today! Heard the birds chirping this morning. It's coming.  :sun:

March 10th is when average highs start to be in the 40s at Buffalo. 

We can still hope for one big snowstorm but as we go deeper into March you realize we’re fighting a losing battle to the change of seasons. 

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Well, I for one, won’t be celebrating the end of winter! I want snow, big snow, more snow and endless snow. So shut your traps about sunshine and warmth. Lol

The Monday thing is still shrouded in unpredictable mystery. The FV3 actually shows a better phase than it has in days but it’s still too late. 

Tomorrows little storm is trending weaker and flatter, which should help, it’s still not a foregone conclusion. 

I can’t recal a time when we had more short term changes. 

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Pretty crazy that even tomorrow's system is still up in the air.  Tomorrow night should have a decent consensus with Storm A mostly out of the way but promising trends so far this morning - Canadian and FV3 both look better.

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