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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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High wind warnings have just been issued for the area. Gusts as high as 75 expected. Should be the strongest wind event in a few years

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a High Wind
Warning, which is in effect from 7 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday.
The High Wind Watch is no longer in effect.

* LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Jefferson, Erie,
  Genesee, and Chautauqua counties.

* TIMING...From early Sunday morning through early Monday
  morning.

* WINDS...West 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 75 mph.
The 00Z models continue to track a deepening, and anomalously deep
low across Lake Michigan and near the SOO Saturday night and Sunday,
with a 65 to 75 knot LLJ passing across the region Sunday and Sunday
night. Both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF as well as the Canadian model all
deepen this low to around 971 to 972 mb Sunday evening.

This deep low coupled with strong cold air advection (850 hPa
temperatures dropping 12 to 16 degrees Celsius through the day),
forcing from a passing isallobaric couplet and passing 1.5 PV tail
(down to near 500 hPa) across the region will transport very strong
winds down to the surface through the day Sunday, beginning in the
late morning hours and continuing through Sunday night. As the 1.5
PV tail crosses the region Sunday afternoon behind a strong cold
front, and potential for 60 knots of wind flow dipping below 1K
feet, wind gusts at the surface could approach 75 mph downwind of
Lake Erie and across the Lake Plain. Several past high wind events
have shown up in the CIPS analogs, including high wind events of Feb
10th 2001, Feb 1 2002, Jan 9 2008. The Jan 9th event at the surface
looks similar to this, with a surface low tracking across the SOO
that deepens to around 971 mb. One difference is the surface high
building across the Plains is stronger for our event Sunday...which
will bring a tighter pressure gradient supporting confidence that
wind gusts 65 to 75 mph will be possible.

Long range looks cold with quite a few chances of snow if we can get on the right side of the gradient. SE ridge will have to help out or the systems will scoot too far SE. Winter is far from over, I expect a much below normal March with greater than normal snowfall. 

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability

 

 

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 It’s super hard to break a pattern. Cutter after cutter. This winter sure has been annoying. Flagstaff got hammered with nearly 3 feet! 

I feel like this winter has been classic El Niño crap. I guess the SE ridge is complicit as is the raging jet and no blocking. 

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After the initial wave of rain crosses the region Sunday, a dry slot
may bring a temporary period of rainfree weather before moisture
wraps back around our region with at first rain showers that will
quickly transition to snow.

Temperatures at 850 hPa will plummet to -15C over the Lakes which
will increase the instability and generate lake effect snow. As lake
effect snow parameters become favorable bands of snow will form to
the east and then southeast of the Lakes. Ice on Lake Erie should
limit the snow to just a few inches across Ski Country. However open
waters of Lake Ontario and a west to northwest flow over the long
axis of the Lake should bring a band of light to moderate snow
inland. East of Lake Ontario snow accumulations could exceed
advisory range...and will include this in the HWO. Of concern will
be the still strong winds within this lake snow. These winds will
create significant blowing of snow that will greatly reduce
visibilities.
Windy conditions will continue into Monday as the powerful storm
system moves into the Canadian Maritimes. A very tight pressure
gradient will lead to northwest winds gusting initially 45 to 60 mph
early Monday morning down to 20 to 35 mph Monday evening. Pressure
rises will slow down Monday evening and winds will finally settle
down. Cold air advection will also be occurring Monday and Monday
night with 850 mb temperatures falling to around -15 deg C by Monday
evening. Northwest flow across the Lakes will result in lake snows
especially east/southeast of Lake Ontario. Additional accumulations
will be minor Monday, with perhaps just another inch or two
southeast of Lake Ontario.
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18 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

 It’s super hard to break a pattern. Cutter after cutter. This winter sure has been annoying. Flagstaff got hammered with nearly 3 feet! 

I feel like this winter has been classic El Niño crap. I guess the SE ridge is complicit as is the raging jet and no blocking. 

It has not been acting like an El Nino at all actually. It's acting like a La Nina with SE ridging. Weak/Mod El Ninos are typically Upstate NY best snowfall years. 

image.png.7372e11f3ef26d0d11c0e8b6f7b65e2b.png

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58 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

 It’s super hard to break a pattern. Cutter after cutter. This winter sure has been annoying. Flagstaff got hammered with nearly 3 feet! 

I feel like this winter has been classic El Niño crap. I guess the SE ridge is complicit as is the raging jet and no blocking. 

Flagstaff gets a lot of snow, but they have snowpack loss way worse than we get in WNY.

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I wish it was acting like a Nino, lol!

Sunday can definitely get interesting around these parts with snow, blowing and drifting, definitely reducing vis's down to 0 at times Sunday Night through Monday.

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Well the Pacific flow is now surely El Niño, and it has been near weak El Niño all winter. I hate El Niño winters. They straight up suck for Rochester during my life. 

I think the strong jet is a lot of our issue. Everything is progressive and if we do get a storm to catch, it’s way early. 

I agree- the graphics don’t look like El Niño, but it feels like El Niño. 

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1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

Well the Pacific flow is now surely El Niño, and it has been near weak El Niño all winter. I hate El Niño winters. They straight up suck for Rochester during my life. 

I think the strong jet is a lot of our issue. Everything is progressive and if we do get a storm to catch, it’s way early. 

I agree- the graphics don’t look like El Niño, but it feels like El Niño. 

Pull up Rochesters snowfall for El Nino vs La Nina. I can almost guarentee El Ninos are better. 

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7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2018-10-30-el-nino-snow-impact

Good article clearly states that El Niño is less snow and La Niña is more snowy for BUF and SYR, Roc isn’t analyses. 

I ran the numbers awhile ago for Buffalo and Weak El Ninos are Buffalos best snowfall years. So that article is wrong. 

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^^^^ I think that's way too generalized a statement based on on that data. The density of those points on both graphs points towards nearly complete randomness, not any sort of trend. The R value of that line is prob like .01. (1 being perfect for regression line)

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Quite a bit of loose ice on the lake. 75 MPH winds are going to push that pretty far onshore near Buffalo. Think I'll head to the lake shore on Sunday to witness that. 

this is a MODIS image

Suppose to work till 5 tomorrow thinking I’ll take a late lunch and maybe forget to come back instead.  Let me know if your heading out.  I’m planning to start down by the peace bridge and work my way south depending on how the conditions are.  

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All i know is Kalb 30 yr avg went down like 5"-6" and the same can be said for Kuca..

Meanwhile they are doubling thier long range avg's along the coast..(over the last decade)

Where i lived down in cnj , over the last decade, they have seen Five 60"(two of them 70") seasons with a long term avg of 22"..

Some parts of LI avg 45-50" over the last 10 years, two-three times above the norm..

Something is going on lol

We live in a much more "micro-climate" years vary greatly..

Fulton for example has seen only One 200" year in the last 12 but 5 such instances the previous 11..

All four years here have been below avg lol Is what it is..

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27 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Suppose to work till 5 tomorrow thinking I’ll take a late lunch and maybe forget to come back instead.  Let me know if your heading out.  I’m planning to start down by the peace bridge and work my way south depending on how the conditions are.  

It doesn't hit until Sunday. Tomorrow the winds won't be strong at all. 

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24 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

All i know is Kalb 30 yr avg went down like 5"-6" and the same can be said for Kuca..

Meanwhile they are doubling thier long range avg's along the coast..(over the last decade)

Where i lived down in cnj , over the last decade, they have seen Five 60"(two of them 70") seasons with a long term avg of 22"..

Some parts of LI avg 45-50" over the last 10 years, two-three times above the norm..

Something is going on lol

We live in a much more "micro-climate" years vary greatly..

Fulton for example has seen only One 200" year in the last 12 but 5 such instances the previous 11..

All four years here have been below avg lol Is what it is..

Tough to classify a "norm" or trend based on such a small sample size. It's the reason climate changers have such a hard time grasping onto data when the earth has been here for billions of years, and concrete data only goes back so far. You need thousands/millions of years of data when you're dealing with something like climate/weather. 

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East of Lake Ontario, there is a little more concern for near
blizzard conditions into Monday morning due to higher gusts together
with a lake response owing to the approaching cold pool aloft.  The
highest concern is currently on the south side of the Tug Hill
Plateau south to the ESE shoreline to either NE Wayne and/or
Northern Cayuga, with a focus on Oswego County.  Amounts should be
manageable, but the near blizzard conditions will likely be a
concern throughout the day from blowing snow, and possibly into
Monday evening, after which winds should finally drop off.

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Kbuf loves to go with the "high end" on their expected snow maps, every single event..This one is no different. 

Probably why they bust every event lol

35% probability of 4" for Pulaski..

0% probability of 6"..

Expected snow 5"..

If my P&C shows 2"-5" u better believe the snow map will show 5" lol

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Crazy how well this storm got locked in so far out on all the models. Nothing like the suspense waiting for this to hit. Local media is hyping the holy hell out of this storm.

577dc928cf4a39be169152cd90c4db99.jpg


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