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1 hour ago, cny rider said:

I'm still hedging.

I want to get in at least one more good ski day.

Wondering if Sunday might actually be the better day this weekend.  Could be a gem of a spring day on fresh snow.

 

Both days should be top notch. I like the deep ungroomed stuff so Saturday will hopefully be a the real deal for me.  Sunday will be a bluebird spring day though, no doubt about that. 

A little worried about wind holds on some of the lifts on Saturday though.  

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1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said:

Both days should be top notch. I like the deep ungroomed stuff so Saturday will hopefully be a the real deal for me.  Sunday will be a bluebird spring day though, no doubt about that. 

A little worried about wind holds on some of the lifts on Saturday though.  

The wind is usually not as bad as they expect during the storm. It’s usually after that they ramp up

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Just now, rochesterdave said:

The wind is usually not as bad as they expect during the storm. It’s usually after that they ramp up

Yeah, would be nice to get a good start to the day without any lift issues.  Maybe the winds won't pick up until noon or so.  Any clearing will really mix them down too.  

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Just now, rochesterdave said:

12z NAM 5 mb deeper compared to the 6z run at 21 hrs. This thing is on fire. Someone in central ny is getting smoked. I’d put money on Syracuse.

its gonna be stronger, colder and further west than expected. 

Syr 10+

Roc 4

Buf 2

Laje Placid 24

It’s also a LOT slower with the Low 

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I think Kuch method will do better in general with this event, catching the sub 10:1 ratios occurring until the wrap around precip starts with ratios climbing to 12-15:1.
Crush job for the hills south of 90, while the Mohawk Valley and other low lying areas south of the Tug/Adks could get hurt by downslope flow Friday morning, but its tough to say at this point.

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13 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

It’s a barn burner of a low! Tight. Tucked. And ready to rumble. Someone in the Dacks sees 30”

I really hope youre right.  Half my crew is banking on VT, me and few others decided on whiteface.  All you really need is about 6-8 inches and it'll be a great POW day.  Anything extra is just gravy!  

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15 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I really hope youre right.  Half my crew is banking on VT, me and few others decided on whiteface.  All you really need is about 6-8 inches and it'll be a great POW day.  Anything extra is just gravy!  

Vermont might have some mixing issues. I’d much rather be in the dacks for this one. Rochester is also in a funny location. Rochester is going to be on the western most periphery for the main slug which will mostly be rain/ mix for lower and mid elevations. If the storm gets cranking, like I expect, even the lower elevations within the main slug could goto snow due to dynamic cooling. This will be important for Syracuse, Lowville, etc. If it trends further west, it could also be important for Rochester and Wayne County. 

Most of Rochester’s snow will fall during the second half with help from the lake while moisture is pinwheeling back in from the north. By that point, the entire column should be well below 28f. It’s a matter of how much moisture is pushed west and how much Ontario wants to help. 

This is still changeable. Honestly, Rochester could see a slushy inch or a foot. IDK. Being on the immediate lake shore will be tough for any accumulation. Areas like Oswego.. imho. 

Conversely, areas with just a bit of elevation should do better. 

Super curious what the 12z euro shows. Will it continue its trend of decreasing WNY totals? Probably....

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