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Upstate/Eastern New York


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4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I may be just enough north not to be fully in the transition zone lol Even though technically i am ,,

Yes i'm greedy lol

snku_acc.us_ne.png

Near bullseye for me in Skaneateles. Not buying (of course it’s one short range model and no two are the same right now!)  

Still think 15-30 miles N of this look will bullseye...

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1243 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

NYZ006-060300-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0009.190306T0000Z-190307T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0008.190306T0000Z-190307T1500Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
1243 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 8 to 16 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows.
  Greatest amounts will be across southern portions of the county.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to
  impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or
  evening commute. Also, it will be bitterly cold with wind
  chills as low as 10 below.
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Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1243 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

NYZ006-060300-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0009.190306T0000Z-190307T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0008.190306T0000Z-190307T1500Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
1243 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 8 to 16 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows.
  Greatest amounts will be across southern portions of the county.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to
  impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or
  evening commute. Also, it will be bitterly cold with wind
  chills as low as 10 below.

music to my ears but I hate when they mention it cause then its a jinx, lol!

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Is it just me or do these maps seem INSANELY optimistic??  I mean I could see some localized slivers SE of Ontario picking up a foot, but holy crap do they make this look really widespread.  I seriously think 90 percent of that map sees 2 inches or less.  Im almost speechless by how aggressive that forecast is, like what the hell am I missing?

 

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

 

 

SnowAmt90Prcntl.png

 

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3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Is it just me or do these maps seem INSANELY optimistic??  I mean I could see some localized slivers SE of Ontario picking up a foot, but holy crap do they make this look really widespread.  I seriously think 90 percent of that map sees 2 inches or less.  Im almost speechless by how aggressive that forecast is, like what the hell am I missing?

 

 

Exactly what I was asking previously...

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Looks like 2 big time cutters after this week of cold and snow, then back to more cold and snow for last 2 weeks of March. 1 month from today I'll be on a beach sipping a long island ice tea in south Florida. 

BW, You going to Holiday Valley this weekend for the Winter Carnival?  Saturday looks absolutely perfect and likely one of the last good days of the whole season as we get drenched all day sunday and the snowpack will once again be wrecked by ice and slop.  I'm hoping to spend a solid 8 hours there.  

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4 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Is it just me or do these maps seem INSANELY optimistic??  I mean I could see some localized slivers SE of Ontario picking up a foot, but holy crap do they make this look really widespread.  I seriously think 90 percent of that map sees 2 inches or less.  Im almost speechless by how aggressive that forecast is, like what the hell am I missing?

 

 

KBGM is unusually well coordinated (with KBUF) with similar idea. I think due to uncertainty of band placement and residence time, along with extended duration they just covered all bases. We'll see if KBGM reigns it in with afternoon package.

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28 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

BW, You going to Holiday Valley this weekend for the Winter Carnival?  Saturday looks absolutely perfect and likely one of the last good days of the whole season as we get drenched all day sunday and the snowpack will once again be wrecked by ice and slop.  I'm hoping to spend a solid 8 hours there.  

I was thinking about it. I have some family coming up this week so we will see. If I don't go to holiday I'll be going cross country. 

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RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
312 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

NYZ018-062015-
/O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0007.190306T0400Z-190307T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBGM.WS.W.0008.190306T0400Z-190307T1500Z/
Onondaga-
Including the city of Syracuse
312 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 8 to 14 inches expected. Localized total snow accumulations
  up to 18 inches possible across northwestern Onondaga county.

* WHERE...Onondaga county.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday. A period
  of heavy snow is expected during the overnight hours into mid
  morning Wednesday. The snow becomes more showery for a time
  midday and early Wednesday afternoon. Another round of moderate
  to heavy lake effect snow is then expected late Wednesday
  afternoon into Wednesday night. The snow tapers off to snow
  showers by Thursday morning.
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Looking upwind I can see Lake Huron is definitely going to have a say in the available moisture that shes gonna offer cause I can definitely see a connection to the upper portion of the Lake later this evening through half the night then it breaks as winds veer once again.  Guessing the wild card is if this thing actually stalls for any long period of time, if so, then areas can see much much more in the way of accumulations.

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