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Upstate/Eastern New York


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280 flow should promote a band through central oswego, probably keeping me on the northern fringes..We shall see..

This will encourage a more significant lake response...with a long 280
fetch for the activity off Lake Ontario allowed to blossom into what
SHOULD be an intensifying plume of moderate to heavy snow in the
vcnty of the Tug Hill.
On Tuesday...a steady flow of -20c H85 air over Lakes Erie and
Ontario will keep accumulating lake snows in place. The snows will
likely pick up in intensity...as the deepening cold air will allow
the cap to further lift to more than 10k ft. This is pretty
`healthy` for this time of the season. Several inches of snow will
be possible across the Southern Tier...while warning criteria
snowfall will be possible near the Tug. Elsewhere...an approaching
bundle of energy digging through the base of the deep longwave
trough may promote scattered snow shower activity. It will be quite
cold on Tuesday for an early day in March. Temperatures will NOT
climb out of the teens for the vast majority of the region. Normal
highs at this point are close to 40.

Finally for Tuesday night...the flow will be a little more
northwesterly in the wake of the aforementioned shortwave. This
should direct the lake snows a little further south...catching more
of the south shore of Lake Ontario. Mins will be nearly identical to
the night before...being in the single digits away from the lakes.
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How is the city of oswego  looking wolfie with the windflow being around 280..im hoping for once tgus season a sustained wnw flow keeps us in a single plume band streaming off the lake in a rare early march lake effect effect amount to feet.

Your thoughts in accumulation totals? Thanks

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12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Enjoy your LES! Both storms have had their dignity shredded by the progressive flow. I feel bad for the folks in Mass who just yesterday were looking at feet of snow and now are fighting for a few measley inches. 

I don't feel bad for them in the slightest. They've had an absolute incredible last decade or so including the record year I was there in 14-15 (Rhode Island), which had almost 100" in like a 6 week period with absolute crushing synoptic storm after synoptic storm. That may actually be my favorite winter I can remember even my Buffalo winters, although to be fair I think 14-15 would have been my favorite winter if I was in Buffalo too. They deserve a couple of down years to at least bring them somewhat closer to the mean as they're average snowfall in places since 2000 has probably close to doubled...

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Incredible how quickly the sun angle is doing its thing as I actually have S+ falling for the last 10-15 minutes and it's not sticking to the roads what so ever as temps are 31 degrees but you can just feel the brightness coming through the clouds and snowfall not allowing it to stick on anything other than car tops/old snowpack...

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In the early going i'm thinking this is another south of tug event..

Makes sense giving a potential 280-290 flow..

About a 12 hr window tues morning of a more "westerly" flow out ahead of a shortwave..Winds should veer more WNW/NW behind the SW ..

U can tell by the NWS wording "vicinity" of the tug hill not "on" lol

 

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I did it to myself, several years ago i drew a triangle of the area i'd like to live, so what did i do? Moved north of it lol

WNW is a common wind direction especially the second half of winter, more times then not it's more "westerly" then "northerly" , i can't tell you how many times i missed a band by a couple miles(north) in fulton..

That's why going just off wind direction can be deceptive as 280-300 flow can be considered WNW but have two totally different outcomes..

Atleast with a straight west wind (270 vector) it can only go one way lol

I don't think the NWS has mentioned 270 flow yet this year haha..At least i still have 2 more feet then i would of if i still lived in fulton..

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Obviously keep in mind the "global" euro only shows LES in trace amounts each 6Hr period, we know that is most likely BS lol

First order of buisness is monday night-tues morning on a 270-280 vector..Probably the best shot at significant lake effect here..

Start a new job first thing monday morning, should be an interesting first few days...

 

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2 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

I don't feel bad for them in the slightest. They've had an absolute incredible last decade or so including the record year I was there in 14-15 (Rhode Island), which had almost 100" in like a 6 week period with absolute crushing synoptic storm after synoptic storm. That may actually be my favorite winter I can remember even my Buffalo winters, although to be fair I think 14-15 would have been my favorite winter if I was in Buffalo too. They deserve a couple of down years to at least bring them somewhat closer to the mean as they're average snowfall in places since 2000 has probably close to doubled...

I'd generally agree. Lived in SE CT for 15 years, until 2000. Place was a crap hole for snow  storms. Up towards Hartford and Springfield was better but even they struggled most years.

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Like i was stating earlier variable wind directions, oscillating bands..

Fot the most part Gfs doesn't have one wind direction for more then 12 hours or so..(at one time)

Gfs just like the euro has precip over the area from mon night into thursday afternoon..

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Northwest flow will spread across the region Monday morning while
850mb temperatures fall to -18 to -14 deg C through the day. This
will be the start to a prolonged period of lake effect snow showers
east-southeast of the Lakes. A large mid-level trough will persist
across the Great Lakes and Northeast. Multiple shortwave troughs
will rotate this big trough resulting in periods of enhancement of
lake effect snow downwind of the Lakes, especially Lake Ontario.
Most of Lake Erie is covered with ice and snow intensity will be
severely reduced across western NY during this period.

While lake effect snow begins Monday, intensity will be light as
inversion heights remain near 5K feet. It won`t be until winds
become west by Monday night and an organized lake band forms across
Lake Ontario with snow showers occuring across the Tug Hill region.
An incoming shortwave trough will push the band to the north Tuesday
morning while also increasing mid-level moisture and advecting even
colder temperatures aloft. This wave will increase forcing across
the region with light snow expected everywhere Tuesday. Another more
robust shortwave trough will move towards the region by Tuesday
evening with lake snows rapidly intensifying east of Lake Ontario.
Moderate to heavy snow accumulations are possible east of Lake
Ontario Tuesday-Tuesday night and may warrant a winter weather
headline. Westerly flow should eventually become northwesterly by
Wednesday morning and snow will transition to Wayne and Cayuga
counties. This shift may dampen the amount of time snow can pile up
in one spot so will hold off on any watches at this time.
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