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stormtracker

The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

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Euro’s got a sub 980 off the NE coast on Friday, and seems to be showing the 9-10 day snow event again for us. That’s a much more positive outlook for snow than this time yesterday, at the very least! Even the Friday storm, although very unlikely it amounts to any snow for most of us, has my attention given all the shifting in the models.

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20 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Euro’s got a sub 980 off the NE coast on Friday, and seems to be showing the 9-10 day snow event again for us. That’s a much more positive outlook for snow than this time yesterday, at the very least! Even the Friday storm, although very unlikely it amounts to any snow for most of us, has my attention given all the shifting in the models.

Yea....almost a 30 mb drop in 24 hours( 1002 to 973mb) ...really bombs this run . We continue to see some positive H5 changes...the door is still cracked open but time is running out for the Thursday storm.  I'll continue to track it for another day or so though . Hopefully we see some better solutions within the Eps members later 

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We have a good track now on Euro for Thursday and need it to trend colder... Lofty goal for the second half of March but wortg keeping an eye on. Pretty remarkable fv3 performance though

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There will probably be some additional track/intensity changes but I wouldn't aim to high snow wise with the late week system. I would like to see development sooner/further south which is possible but not likely currently. It would be nice to at least get some kind of impacts from a bombing out coastal regardless of precipitation type.

 

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11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps member E12 has a 36 - 48 hour HECS day 8/9:weenie:.  Definitely our best shot period for an anomalous late season hit .

We only get ~20”. The 40” area is down by DC. Next. 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We only get ~20”. The 40” area is down by DC. Next. 

EPS supports a closed ULL going near or under us lol

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Going from the least amped model to the most amped in one run. There's only 1 model that would do such a thing. I don't need to name it.

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I don't care what happens I just want something exciting other than partly sunny and 55. Give me storm after storm until we get to April then it can warm up and dry out. Then we can look for severe.

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42 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

lol NAM.  If only we had some real cold air around

Since the setup wasn’t that good most failed to notice the antecedent temperature profile was degrading...to the point that any frozen is a real low probability even if we get this to trend towards a more amped west track. 

Its also super low probability but if the guidance is even close with a pressing anomalous cold airmass as a cutoff low system tracks under us day 8-10 that is a better setup. Still unlikely but less unlikely I guess. 

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Since the setup wasn’t that good most failed to notice the antecedent temperature profile was degrading...to the point that any frozen is a real low probability even if we get this to trend towards a more amped west track. 

Its also super low probability but if the guidance is even close with a pressing anomalous cold airmass as a cutoff low system tracks under us day 8-10 that is a better setup. Still unlikely but less unlikely I guess. 

I know.  It would still be interesting as is I guess.  

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47 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It’s wrong, but it went down like that, it would be epic heartache.  Just agonizing. And fitting. 

Christ thats the last thing I need right now. Thankfully its the NAM at range.

Give me a nice dry week, with a storm a couple hundred miles offshore.

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol

7A534FDB-90BD-48D4-AAC5-A7EFDB64939E.thumb.png.f8c0293c04a875b15c6be0698864f0f7.png

If this happens, my wife may have some trouble getting home from her trip to Chicago  LOL

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6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Gotta love when the late season diehards keep tracking right into April. 

I track all year for whatever kind of weather. When nothing interesting shows up i don’t say anything but I’m still watching.

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