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stormtracker

The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Those indexes often miss the picture. They are like poor man cheat sheets but cannot replace reading the actual longwave pattern. 

I don’t know what the indexes say for 3-5 days from now but this looks mighty good to me. 

8CDE7EF6-02C8-4ADD-A524-92D8199348B7.thumb.png.ceceb97401c4fe8d1da0dc5277bafb28.png

21CF140B-652B-42D3-9AC5-6B89747E8CEF.thumb.png.2bc1c69615c1ee4a43c7c64a4377e053.png

Monster epo ridge.  50/50 vortex.  West based NAO blocking.  Severely fractured and displaced TPV. Trough east of Hawaii to help pump some ridging in the southwest.  Way more hostile looks than that have led to snow in the past.  Maybe it’s not the most ideal textbook perfect hecs look ever but it’s decent.  

If you are referring to the indexes in 10 days as the threat happens then that is irrelevant.  Big storms often happen once the blocking that set them up breaks down.  Without that look day 3-5 we wouldn’t get the whole chain of events that leads to the day 10 threat.  But that look is only 3 dats away now and across all guidance.  

Could the gfs be right and storm one cuts then everything behind it gets suppressed, sure.  Could it amp up too much and rain yea.  Or maybe we get snow.  It’s not a super high probability but no day 10 threat is but if you can’t see the reasons the next 13 days or so might yield snow in the mid Atlantic from that day 3-5 look then you don’t know how to actually analyze a pattern and are misusing indexes.  Or you are trolling.  

 

 

 

That Monster EPO your talking about is a major failure for the pattern. tilted the wrong way and a different direction in order to give us a trought in the east. Same pattern we have been stuck in since late Dec early Jan, So will end up with what another 2 days of cooler than average temps. No Significant Blocking going on either in the NAO so i dont see anything more than the same as cutters and sliders for the MA. My intention was not trolling by any means it was to just move on from this winter and look to spring past 1st weekend of March.

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13 minutes ago, luckyamaha said:

That Monster EPO your talking about is a major failure for the pattern. tilted the wrong way and a different direction in order to give us a trought in the east. Same pattern we have been stuck in since late Dec early Jan, So will end up with what another 2 days of cooler than average temps. No Significant Blocking going on either in the NAO so i dont see anything more than the same as cutters and sliders for the MA. My intention was not trolling by any means it was to just move on from this winter and look to spring past 1st weekend of March.

Ok...don’t know how to read a pattern it is then. 

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok...don’t know how to read a pattern it is then. 

Not sure I agree with his reading of the pattern but I agree we are essentially same place we have been stuck the entire winter ie chasing a day 10+ unicorn. You cant say the OP is wrong in that regard and that we keep seeing these good looks evaporate. 

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31 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not sure I agree with his reading of the pattern but I agree we are essentially same place we have been stuck the entire winter ie chasing a day 10+ unicorn. You cant say the OP is wrong in that regard and that we keep seeing these good looks evaporate. 

But I'm not sure we've seen this exact look all winter...have we?

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30 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not sure I agree with his reading of the pattern but I agree we are essentially same place we have been stuck the entire winter ie chasing a day 10+ unicorn. You cant say the OP is wrong in that regard and that we keep seeing these good looks evaporate. 

If you both want to be frustrated by "another day 10 threat" fine.  But we have had snow this year here from a LOT of those day 10 threats.  Frustratingly they didn't turn into the big storms some of us might have been chasing but the DC area has had a LOT of snow events this year and a lot of them showed up as day 10 threats.  The day 15 -NAO pattern fail was a big deal all year...but a LOT of the snow threats that made it to day 10 became actual snow on the ground for some of this forum. 

Additionally, he is wrong in his assessment of the seasonal issues and why it hasn't or might not snow.   He either has no idea what he is talking about or is trolling. 

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1 hour ago, luckyamaha said:

That Monster EPO your talking about is a major failure for the pattern. tilted the wrong way and a different direction in order to give us a trought in the east. Same pattern we have been stuck in since late Dec early Jan, So will end up with what another 2 days of cooler than average temps. No Significant Blocking going on either in the NAO so i dont see anything more than the same as cutters and sliders for the MA. My intention was not trolling by any means it was to just move on from this winter and look to spring past 1st weekend of March.

You should just stick to the substance-less trolling and not try to pretend you have any idea what you're talking about.  There is nothing wrong with the epo ridge as depicted on those frames I posted.  There is NAO blocking on those panels I posted...the next 5 days...it then breaks down but that often happens BEFORE we get a snow threat.  Additionally we can snow without a -NAO...we have plenty of times this year.  You also kind of imply this year has been nothing but fail when in reality we have had a decent amount of snow, some places are above climo...it might not have been the epic year some wanted but it hasn't been a disaster anywhere in this sub.  Finally..."more of the same" can't apply because this isn't a look we have had really most of the winter. 

Before you can even attempt to understand where we are going lets look at where we have been. 

We had a pretty good pattern in November into Early December and had that prevailed most of the winter we probably would have had that epic season...but lets start with the second half of December.  This was the only truly awful shutout pattern all winter. 

December.png.bacd4bbfe687b378cda355d27b20320c.png

We had the opposite pac pattern as what we want.  Huge +EPO and a ridge south of it...basically amplifying and directing the pacific jet straight across into the CONUS.  PAC PUKE PATTERN.  But nothing like this upcoming pattern.

January

January.png.d2db091e749f77399e0283232025e490.png

The EPO was actually "OK" in January... but the issue there was the WAR.  There you go @Ralph Wiggum you nailed one of the months.  It wasn't a bad look overall... there is enough there to work with and that is why everyone in here saw snow in January and MOST ended up with an above climo month.  The DC area even got lucky with the one really big storm of the season to hit north of Richmond.  But that WAR there, and not just a WAR but a WAR on steroids, right where we would ideally want a 50/50 low, took what would have been a pretty darn good pattern otherwise and made it mediocre and caused all those cutters.  The EPO was NOT the problem. 

February

February.png.f0d6ce74a359cf22e9dc042cd35daff4.png

There was no -EPO in February, that is a north Pac ridge there and you can see what a ridge there does to the jet and why that is bad.  We need the ridge to extend into western North America and be centered east of that look there to do us any good.  We lost the WAR and the Atlantic has been pretty good most of the month but that north PAC ridge just killed us.  Again...the atlantic was good enough to get us SOME snow...but the PAC ridge prevented it from being a good pattern. 

The look coming up doesn't look much like any of the 3 dominant patterns we have had.  2/3 patterns we had weren't that bad...they just never became that good either and we had high expectations...but you talk about it as if we have had no snow and "this will just be more of the same"?  More of what same...many in here are near or above climo snowfall right now.  And the rest of us have all had at least some snow.   So what are you talking about?

 

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1 hour ago, luckyamaha said:

That Monster EPO your talking about is a major failure for the pattern. tilted the wrong way and a different direction in order to give us a trought in the east. Same pattern we have been stuck in since late Dec early Jan, So will end up with what another 2 days of cooler than average temps. No Significant Blocking going on either in the NAO so i dont see anything more than the same as cutters and sliders for the MA. My intention was not trolling by any means it was to just move on from this winter and look to spring past 1st weekend of March.

Now I will show you why your wrong about that epo look being a problem.  It's not the most perfect pattern I would pick if I could draw up the best way to get snow.  Centering the blocking on the NAO side would be better...but that look has worked before.  It has failed sometimes also...but we can fail in even the  most perfect west based NAO block also...not every good pattern ends up with snow on the ground. 

Here are some examples of similar patterns that did work.  A few BIG storms...and then some more typical but good ones.   No 2 looks are every exactly the same but these are all pretty close.

Probably the best example of March cold and snow came from a very similar look this the one coming up.

1960

1960.gif.bfba69962f1e32605a7d3518cc990e8b.gif

Obviously 1993 is another example that lead to a monster storm

march1993.gif.4708a8f60526b5110ce7975048148e6a.gif

February 2006 a similarly centered EPO ridge worked with with a pretty good storm

feb2006.gif.f2a4d557f4f84722c1be6d39eeab30a8.gif

And there were a couple other years where this type of pattern simply lead to a decent snowfall... 2 moderate snows early in 1996 that amounted to 7.5" in Baltimore, and one 5" storm in 1978.

1996.gif.5a65bc0e2cb06bbd9685d362db6b38d2.gif

1978.gif.dd6281471e5af66685d17c4ad95ff8bb.gif

Finally... you said this look is not good to get a trough in the east... again what are you talking about.  Right now ALL the guidance is dumping a pretty darn cold trough into the east next week.   The bigger issue looks to be suppression right now.  I am not sure if NC ends up with a snowstorm that you can say the problem was "no trough in the east".  Maybe this progression with change and turn into a massive fail but right now EVERYTHING indicates its going to be pretty cold day 8-14.  Maybe we get snow out of it...maybe not...but the epo isn't the problem. 

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4 hours ago, cbmclean said:

I appreciate your time.

So when people talk about NS or SS shortwaves, they are referring to areas of elevated vorticity?

And phasing is when areas of elevated vorticity from north and south approach each other and merge?

A shortwave is just a smaller scale wave in the jet..a kink so to speak, usually caused by a cold pool in the mid or upper levels.  A lot of times when we are talking about a shortwave its associated with a weaker system like a clipper.

Phasing is actually anytime two systems combine but 99 percent of the time when we talk about phasing it is in reference to the northern stream and southern stream combining.  Often we talk about that when a southern stream system is approaching and we need the northern stream to interact.  Often without the northern stream phasing the stj will get suppressed to our south by the flow of the northern stream.  Phasing is when the northern stream becomes synced up with the southern stream system and you end up with one storm being fed by energy in both streams. 

When we say "vort" we are actually talking about differential positive vorticity advection.  Vorticity is a measure of the rotation of air in a location.  Counterclockwise rotation is positive vorticity.  It's not perfect but the h5 level is often the best to get a quick snapshot of where PVA is greatest.  Vorticity advection into an area at 500 mp is usually associated with and conducive for pressure falls at the surface and an amplifying system. 

 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

A shortwave is just a smaller scale wave in the jet..a kink so to speak, usually caused by a cold pool in the mid or upper levels.  A lot of times when we are talking about a shortwave its associated with a weaker system like a clipper.

Phasing is actually anytime two systems combine but 99 percent of the time when we talk about phasing it is in reference to the northern stream and southern stream combining.  Often we talk about that when a southern stream system is approaching and we need the northern stream to interact.  Often without the northern stream phasing the stj will get suppressed to our south by the flow of the northern stream.  Phasing is when the northern stream becomes synced up with the southern stream system and you end up with one storm being fed by energy in both streams. 

When we say "vort" we are actually talking about differential positive vorticity advection.  Vorticity is a measure of the rotation of air in a location.  Counterclockwise rotation is positive vorticity.  It's not perfect but the h5 level is often the best to get a quick snapshot of where PVA is greatest.  Vorticity advection into an area at 500 mp is usually associated with and conducive for pressure falls at the surface and an amplifying system. 

 

Thank you.

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GFS op close enough for now with the day 10 threat.  I haven't totally given up on the weird convoluted setup March 1-2 or the STJ wave March 4 but those both look like a longer shot.  The March 6 threat looks to be the best and times up with the pattern relax better. 

look at the changes from the last run... so I mean no way it could shift north another 100 miles in the next 9 days lol

gfs_z500_mslp_us_fh234_trend.thumb.gif.5df14362ff1dcac0772df08b316a5ca2.gif

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8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Forget that it was a deb message, anyone has the right to make the case it won’t snow, but he did it in the least substantive way possible. 

Who said this has anything to do with it being a Deb post? Though I am a tired of some weather/model illiterate people doing a drive-by just to drop a Deb turd and adding nothing of value this has very little to do with it. What I mostly take issue with is being told to move along as if he/she is some Sainted Pied Piper leading us morons to the promised land.

It is really pretty simple here. If you think something is a waste of time then don't partake. But what you sure as hell don't do is come in and play at conversion therapy to those that enjoy this hobby. 

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Just now, luckyamaha said:

Stop being butthurt and move on

Really? This is your response to be an a**? Trying to tell me what to do once again? Talk about a slow learner.

Why are you even in this thread considering you think it is a huge waste of time and have thought so for most of the winter if your posts are any indication. Why don't you go do something you enjoy instead? Like maybe blow up sex dolls, toy action figures or whatever tickles your fancy.

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2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Who said this has anything to do with it being a Deb post? Though I am a tired of some weather/model illiterate people doing a drive-by just to drop a Deb turd and adding nothing of value this has very little to do with it. What I mostly take issue with is being told to move along as if he/she is some Sainted Pied Piper leading us morons to the promised land.

It is really pretty simple here. If you think something is a waste of time then don't partake. But what you sure as hell don't do is come in and play at conversion therapy to those that enjoy this hobby. 

As bad as this year has been with the crazy, trolling, and inappropriate attacks, one thing we didn’t have to deal with a lot was the constant whining about long range discussion in the long range thread. A few stupid posts but not much. That was one thing I was thankful to do without. 

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Eps went from a strong primary tracking through the lakes to southern slider track in 24 hours with Saturday's storm.  This is why I never give up on the mid range ...and esp true this year .

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The 0600 GFS shows little doubt that cold temperatures are headed this way in the March 3-10 period...possibly VERY cold.   And if you're a snow lover, that's the first ingredient.  Where it goes from there is anyone's guess at this point.  

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