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stormtracker

The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

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25 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Looks like this thread is finally dying. Winter has been over in my world for about a month now. I wasn't wrong.

did we have a winter is the question.  we had a bunch of storms and continuation of precip producers with the occasional well timed progressive cold airmass.  i'm just glad i got that mid jan storm out of it.  this winter could have been a real epic bust if it wasn't for that one.  aside from the '16 blizzard, we haven't had a really true start to finish winter in several years.

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6 hours ago, frd said:

Certainly no indications of sudden summer, which is nice, maybe eventually a nice period of real spring weather for once. 

 

 

the 2nd half of this week looks outstanding for prototype spring weather.

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Looks like this thread is finally dying. Winter has been over in my world for about a month now. I wasn't wrong.

Those chasing the FV3 got about 3 flakes in a passing snow shower, versus the 86 inches it forecasted. 

Not to mention 81 pages of tracking an empty winter full of false hopes. In the future everyone should temper expectations and put little confidence in any forecaster who does the long range winter thing.  In this day and age, and the way things are going globally,  I personally feel no one currently can predict seasonal weather in advance better than simple climo.     

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Looks like this thread is finally dying. Winter has been over in my world for about a month now. I wasn't wrong.

Hope everyone has a nice spring/summer. It’s been fun as always.  See you in October unless we get a tropical threat. We’ll get the goods next season!

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Looks like this thread is finally dying. Winter has been over in my world for about a month now. I wasn't wrong.

Yep, today was perfect...hope your fire pit is coming along well

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28 minutes ago, frd said:

Those chasing the FV3 got about 3 flakes in a passing snow shower, versus the 86 inches it forecasted. 

Not to mention 81 pages of tracking an empty winter full of false hopes. In the future everyone should temper expectations and put little confidence in any forecaster who does the long range winter thing.  In this day and age, and the way things are going globally,  I personally feel no one currently can predict seasonal weather in advance better than simple climo.     

Yup go with climo and reduce by 33%. Hard to beat it.

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Just now, nj2va said:

Yep, today was perfect...hope your fire pit is coming along well

Thank you! I worked on it most of the day. It was beautiful out there. Its coming along nicely. When its all done I will post a pic or 2.

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did we have a winter is the question.  we had a bunch of storms and continuation of precip producers with the occasional well timed progressive cold airmass.  i'm just glad i got that mid jan storm out of it.  this winter could have been a real epic bust if it wasn't for that one.  aside from the '16 blizzard, we haven't had a really true start to finish winter in several years.
I dont really see how one could rationally ask that question if your location is the immediate dc area. In rockville we recieved over 24 inches for the season..the jan storm was great but several more were solid low to moderate storms not to mention another decent 5 incher in feb! I your excpectation is wall to wall cold with endless snow maybe just a few years 2003/4,2009/10,2013/14 come to mind. In fact dca and dulles scored better than 2015 and WAY better than the last two! I do understand the frustration of people like CAPE ..but it was a very lucky winter for us, because you know 201/2012 is up next!!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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I dont really see how one could rationally ask that question if your location is the immediate dc area. In rockville we recieved over 24 inches for the season..the jan storm was great but several more were solid low to moderate storms not to mention another decent 5 incher in feb! I your excpectation is wall to wall cold with endless snow maybe just a few years 2003/4,2009/10,2013/14 come to mind. In fact dca and dulles scored better than 2015 and WAY better than the last two! I do understand the frustration of people like CAPE ..but it was a very lucky winter for us, because you know 201/2012 is up next!!

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Correction on my part..equalled 2015 think dulles snowfall was higher that year.


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Gfs now has a April fools snowstorm:D.  Euro had it yesterday . There's a theme here I think

And its a front end thump..

 

In April:lol:

 

 

Screenshot_20190325-063459_Chrome_crop_540x744.jpg

Edit: actually FV3 has it to ...not a surprise 

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs now has a April fools snowstorm:D.  Euro had it yesterday . There's a theme here I think

And its a front end thump..

 

In April:lol:

 

 

Screenshot_20190325-063459_Chrome_crop_540x744.jpg

Edit: actually FV3 has it to ...not a surprise 

This is definitely the one!!!!!!!   Woooo

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For the most part I was impressed with how well the models did in the 2.5 - 6 day time frame.  The models were mostly useless in the 8-14 day time frame; however, this is a time frame when models only provide useful information during certain windows when teleconnections indicate that a longer range forecast should have skill (certain combinations of the QBO MJO ENSO post-stratospheric warming). 

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11 hours ago, weatherjedi said:

I dont really see how one could rationally ask that question if your location is the immediate dc area. In rockville we recieved over 24 inches for the season..the jan storm was great but several more were solid low to moderate storms not to mention another decent 5 incher in feb! I your excpectation is wall to wall cold with endless snow maybe just a few years 2003/4,2009/10,2013/14 come to mind. In fact dca and dulles scored better than 2015 and WAY better than the last two! I do understand the frustration of people like CAPE ..but it was a very lucky winter for us, because you know 201/2012 is up next!!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

it was fringe...real fringe.  we hit our snow totals because our record breaking precip year bled into the winter.  the nov to march precip totals at dc are insane...over 20" i think.  imagine if we had more sustained cold.

https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/dcaprecip.pdf

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it was fringe...real fringe.  we hit our snow totals because our record breaking precip year bled into the winter.  the nov to march precip totals at dc are insane...over 20" i think.  imagine if we had more sustained cold.
https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/dcaprecip.pdf
Yes..that is correct. The insane precip totals did help immensely, but when it come to snow i think well take it any way we can get! I did enjoy jan this year and the early november cold,imo best winter since 2015!

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16 minutes ago, weatherjedi said:

Yes..that is correct. The insane precip totals did help immensely, but when it come to snow i think well take it any way we can get! I did enjoy jan this year and the early november cold,imo best winter since 2015!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

overall, yes, we had a winter, but i think there's a reason it got mostly C grades across the board.  lots of rain, no sustained cold, and only one sizable event.  the jan 12/13 storm was great and the first part of feb 20, but i gotta factor into the equation that a lot of the snow didn't stick around due to generally mild temps and/or just getting washed out soon after.  honestly, i actually prefer mild winters with periodic snow...it was the rain that i thought was excessive.  december was a no show as well.  however, i certainly grade this higher than the previous 2 winters.

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Hey check this out...Found this in the snow records...April 1884...8 inches recorded in April, lol (and I know that can't all be hail!)

By far the highest April snow total on record. Gotta believe this was because of the famous Krakatoa eruption the year before! (That must've really been something...wow!)

Edit: It was the 2nd highest April snowfall, not the highest!

Screenshot_20190307-163827_Adobe Acrobat.jpg

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24 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hey check this out...Found this in the snow records...April 1884...8 inches recorded in April, lol (and I know that can't all be hail!)

By far the highest April snow total on record. Gotta believe this was because of the famous Krakatoa eruption the year before! (That must've really been something...wow!)

Screenshot_20190307-163827_Adobe Acrobat.jpg

No, the highest April total at BWI was 9.4” on 4/1/1924. Region-wide though, the biggest event overall was 4/3/1915 which delivered 10” to RIC. Snowfall contest thread has more info on that one. 

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I have mentioned this before when talk of April snows comes up.  MRB had 10" on 4/28/1928 from a snowstorm that dropped up to 40" in the mountains of WV.

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On ‎3‎/‎20‎/‎2019 at 2:40 PM, jaydreb said:

It is good.  Bullseyes central va.  

57349137-8738-4B9D-9FC5-4E8528E2FAF2.png

CE6AFA76-09D4-41C8-B6B0-9EA6CDF7A968.png

5A991F59-81BE-4E6E-9436-59CEBB6D31AB.png

Just checking, central VA still getting pummeled with snow from this system? It's 60 up this way.

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1 hour ago, WVclimo said:

I have mentioned this before when talk of April snows comes up.  MRB had 10" on 4/28/1928 from a snowstorm that dropped up to 40" in the mountains of WV.

4-9" from CO-ops reporting around here back then, pretty impressive for that late in the season. 

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48 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Euro back to showing the April fools snow .:snowing:

yes..why is this being posted in the march thread

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28 minutes ago, Ji said:

yes..why is this being posted in the march thread

Lol...didn't dream there was a thread :lol:. The "Ji due or die " storm we'll call it 

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