Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,449
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    wagsphoto
    Newest Member
    wagsphoto
    Joined
stormtracker

The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

So did the @psuhoffman storm for the 8th to 11th of March dissapear?

It’s there but att the trend is a weak front runner then a phased cutter. Could go down that way. At this range you feel confident in that?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[mention=514]Ji[/mention] last nights eps was actually the weenies run of the winter for the nw 1/3.  Lol
FC34BD7B-1C75-442C-8DCB-4C53BB5BF21A.thumb.png.18c7a518992c83276d0170e520a8a01d.png
 
Most of that is tomorrow though lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My winter tracking is basically over. Haven't looked at mjo...ao/nao indicies... eps500mb map...in over a week. Now just lazily look at surface and snow maps

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Ji said:

My winter tracking is basically over. Haven't looked at mjo...ao/nao indicies... eps500mb map...in over a week. Now just lazily look at surface and snow maps

I'll be surprised if that model lasts much longer in a real world. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ji said:

This puts up over climo @psuhoffman

gem_asnow_neus_40.png

I am not endorsing that crazy nonsense but I do still think the period from the 8th-12th is worth keeping an eye on. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I could see the Friday wave trend stronger and turn into something, right now its suppressed.  I could also see the cutter trend weaker, they mostly have this winter...or if it does cut that energy cutting through behind it could do something on the coast... so there are multiple ways I could see something come out of that period. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I could see the Friday wave trend stronger and turn into something, right now its suppressed.  I could also see the cutter trend weaker, they mostly have this winter...or if it does cut that energy cutting through behind it could do something on the coast... so there are multiple ways I could see something come out of that period. 

Gfs has shown several runs with light hits ..couple inches . Coming off pretty anomalous cold shot should help.  I doubt surface will be an issue for the Friday am system if it occurs 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i don't hate the potential on the gfs for next weekend.  the first wave looks like a potential light/moderate overrunning event.  the 2nd wave probably depends on the position of the highs to the north (timing again).  for now, it's finding a weakness and cutting to the northwest.  not a tremendous amount of cold available during that timeframe, but workable.

i have a feeling that might be the last legit tracking, though.  mid march is pushing it for snow around here, and honestly, i'm ok with that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I also wouldn’t toss the second wave either. We have seen some cutters trend to unphased waves under us from range. 

But there is another possible window showing around March 17-20th too now. 

EPS been hinting for several runs and now the gfs might be sensing it. Maybe we still have a long ways to go before we’re done tracking. 

9B6BB660-2A20-42C6-86C5-7FB0502E1483.thumb.png.ffb85fdcf681ca601b948085c1195823.png

91882B47-6855-47DB-8945-A25C65A2787A.thumb.png.c8f3a35d84c06b925bb5f72e4e701eb4.png

32E7B342-7F61-4A49-99A9-F1243224EBE3.thumb.png.f765cec6f3b7e0f2fd2700d54b5e537d.png

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@psuhoffman the thoughts here from back in early Jan.  that March would deliver sure seems to be on the mark now.  

I wish I was in your local tonight psu.  I am really riding the line here.   Under a WSW but not too confident about the outcome. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

An impressive list there, and not so sure about having to mow the lawn any time soon. 

 

500hgt_comp_12gfs814.gif

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I did seed however.  Should be buried good by now.  Hope to get one more snow event.  I said that last week for this week.  I see how that panned out.  Maybe Friday willl be of interest.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, frd said:

@psuhoffman the thoughts here from back in early Jan.  that March would deliver sure seems to be on the mark now.  

I wish I was in your local tonight psu.  I am really riding the line here.   Under a WSW but not too confident about the outcome. 

Good luck 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

FV3 shows a major east coast snowstorm at hour 384!

1993 lol. Fv3 just a bit further east though. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This part of LWX's disco gives hope for something next weekend.  I hope we get one last hurrah.

The bigger threat for a storm really comes later in the weekend. A
strong upper-level trough will traverse the US around the end of the
week leading into the weekend. Surface low pressure will form in
association with this upper-level feature. Meanwhile, a strong high
pressure (~1036 mb) could be in an optimal position for a cold air
damming setup across the forecast area. You put these two things
together at the right time, along with a potential secondary low
forming along the east coast, and there could be winter storm
potential. This is way too far off to really get specific at this
time, but this is certainly something that bears watching.

 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Guidance shows a massive ridge in the east next week. Let's hope next weekend's potential becomes more meaningful than the strung out mess that current models are showing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This all falls as snow for DC north. Could be a decent event for Friday

Very cold conditions all week leading in

 

fv3p_apcpn24_neus_19.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I think wintry precip is done for D.C. for 18-19. 

I would beg to differ on that but i think accumulation is all but done. Who knows tho, maybe we pull a better version of 1st day of spring storm from last year

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, nj2va said:

One can hope. Bring on spring. 

Dude no! That’s like rooting for a Caps playoff loss. I’m not ready to let anything winter go quite yet. One more event. Then I’m ready to deck chill and grill. B)

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said:

I would beg to differ on that but i think accumulation is all but done. Who knows tho, maybe we pull a better version of 1st day of spring storm from last year

We've been chasing rain for a while. Time to get the treager and golf clubs ready

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

bring on spring and summer with less rain - been f ing raining since last july - lets get some heat and dryness going on.  

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I think wintry precip is done for D.C. for 18-19. 

I hope so,  its been a crummy hobby this winter with a very poor ROI.   

Any more rain and I think there will be sinkholes everywhere.   

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×