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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand


stormtracker
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I could see the Friday wave trend stronger and turn into something, right now its suppressed.  I could also see the cutter trend weaker, they mostly have this winter...or if it does cut that energy cutting through behind it could do something on the coast... so there are multiple ways I could see something come out of that period. 

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i don't hate the potential on the gfs for next weekend.  the first wave looks like a potential light/moderate overrunning event.  the 2nd wave probably depends on the position of the highs to the north (timing again).  for now, it's finding a weakness and cutting to the northwest.  not a tremendous amount of cold available during that timeframe, but workable.

i have a feeling that might be the last legit tracking, though.  mid march is pushing it for snow around here, and honestly, i'm ok with that.

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I also wouldn’t toss the second wave either. We have seen some cutters trend to unphased waves under us from range. 

But there is another possible window showing around March 17-20th too now. 

EPS been hinting for several runs and now the gfs might be sensing it. Maybe we still have a long ways to go before we’re done tracking. 

9B6BB660-2A20-42C6-86C5-7FB0502E1483.thumb.png.ffb85fdcf681ca601b948085c1195823.png

91882B47-6855-47DB-8945-A25C65A2787A.thumb.png.c8f3a35d84c06b925bb5f72e4e701eb4.png

32E7B342-7F61-4A49-99A9-F1243224EBE3.thumb.png.f765cec6f3b7e0f2fd2700d54b5e537d.png

 

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This part of LWX's disco gives hope for something next weekend.  I hope we get one last hurrah.

The bigger threat for a storm really comes later in the weekend. A
strong upper-level trough will traverse the US around the end of the
week leading into the weekend. Surface low pressure will form in
association with this upper-level feature. Meanwhile, a strong high
pressure (~1036 mb) could be in an optimal position for a cold air
damming setup across the forecast area. You put these two things
together at the right time, along with a potential secondary low
forming along the east coast, and there could be winter storm
potential. This is way too far off to really get specific at this
time, but this is certainly something that bears watching.

 

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1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I think wintry precip is done for D.C. for 18-19. 

I hope so,  its been a crummy hobby this winter with a very poor ROI.   

Any more rain and I think there will be sinkholes everywhere.   

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