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stormtracker

The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

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15 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

Lookin tasty! Especially for those of us near Charlottesville, and DC points south 

I could post the ggem and say looks great, especially for those of us in MD and Baltimore north. 

This thread will be garbage if everyone cherry picks and posts maps showing snow in their yard with comments like “looks good especially here” with no objective analysis or value added. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:

why is someone from CHO posting in our forum?

Because CHO is in our subforum and is part of the LWX CWA.  We also have some great posters from CHO and the surrounding areas, don't let snowchaser color that

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Looks like UKIE has the Monday storm... 144 has a 1002mb SLP just SE of NYC near LI... not sure how it got there though as hr 120 maps on meteocentre aren't helpful.  Going to have to wait for weathermodels

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Just now, LeesburgWx said:

They have to let the interns get hands on experience too

there are some poor map makers at NWS.

love the folks who work there, of course, just wish they'd hire me to make their maps instead. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I could post the ggem and say looks great, especially for those of us in MD and Baltimore north. 

This thread will be garbage if everyone cherry picks and posts maps showing snow in their yard with comments like “looks good especially here” with no objective analysis or value added. 

 

What are you even talking about!??

I bring up Charlottesville once and you freak out like a child lol. 

Chill

 

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Okay...So CHO is in the subforum... and everyone can cherry pick the model that shows the most snow for their backyard.  If you do not have any analysis to based your map on or you still want to argue about your location in the subforum... please take it to the banter thread.

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1 minute ago, Interstate said:

Okay...So CHO is in the subforum... and everyone can cherry pick the model that shows the most snow for their backyard.  If you do not have any analysis to based your map on or you still want to argue about your location in the subforum... please take it to the banter thread.

Just look at the data! Most of the euro members point to a central Virginia snowstorm. Even noaa sees that. 

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7 minutes ago, Ji said:

99% chance it happens as you say. Your fail scenarios almost are gold

LOL I am fairly optimistic we will see some snow out of this whole pattern.  I am more iffy on if any of them can become the "big dog" we (you and me) really want at this point.  But I am not saying it won't happen.  My fail scenarios work so often because our climo sucks, and the models have a tendency to over forecast snow for our area in general.  I don't know why...and its not as bad as some make it with perception bias and cherry picking the runs that show a ton of snow and forgetting all the runs that showed no snow... but still in general MOST threats will fail or at least fail to live up to the "hope" for a big storm. 

There is a "win" scenario too.  But I am a little torn right now about how this is trending.  The weekend cutter is trending weaker which is opening the door to the Sunday/Monday wave.  That is trending better across guidance and that wave has some upside and I would not kick a 4-8" storm out of bed or anything... but there is a cap on that imo.  The isnt really much amplification associated with it in the northern stream and there is no ridging out west and its just unlikely that wave becomes a big storm.  And the problem is the more that wave amplifies there is a corresponding degradation of the threat around the 6th and that one was the bigger potential with a PNA ridge out west and the northern stream digging in.  That could become a big storm, but its likely to get squashed if the wave Monday amplifies.  I just don't see enough space right now for both.  People can take that for what it is worth, the trends with the Sunday/Monday storm right now are good.  This is not meant to be a deb post.  That is trending towards being a pretty good storm in our area.  But it might cost us the shot at a big dog later next week.  Some would gladly make that trade...others would not.  And in the end for me it depends how much snow the Sunday/Monday storm ends up.  If I can get 6" plus out of it...I would give up the shot at a big storm later.  But if I get another 3-4" fringe event while south of me gets more and then the next storm gets squashed because of it....that would be a pretty crappy way to end the season imo.  

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Lot's of dissecting verbatim maps on a d5+ threat. lol. Everything looks good enough for me. Typical boom/bust options that are present with every.single.storm 5+ days out. I'll jump into the fray on Sunday. For now I only care about snow or no snow solutions. So far snow is winning. 

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9 minutes ago, mappy said:

there are some poor map makers at NWS.

love the folks who work there, of course, just wish they'd hire me to make their maps instead. 

Agree!  We should bombard them with this demand...

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2 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

No word from DT yet haha

Models are showing CVA out of the game so he will wait

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Agree!  We should bombard them with this demand...

if you know someone there and can put in a good word ;) 

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31 minutes ago, mappy said:

there are some poor map makers at NWS.

love the folks who work there, of course, just wish they'd hire me to make their maps instead. 

Apply!

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4 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z UKIE is rain for all for the Monday storm

Well it's on its own for now. Although it wouldn't shock me if we are sweating the rain/snow line by the end of the week.

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30 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

 

What are you even talking about!??

I bring up Charlottesville once and you freak out like a child lol. 

Chill

 

 

54 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

Lookin tasty! Especially for those of us near Charlottesville, and DC points south 

 

 

3 hours ago, Snowchaser said:

DC points south need to watch Monday closely!  Especially Charlottesville, Richmond etc :thumbsup:

 

14 hours ago, Snowchaser said:

Even the NAM shows some wintery weather in Charlottesville:wacko: 

 

 

On 12/6/2018 at 8:32 PM, Snowchaser said:

I do think it bold. 4-8 for me in Charlottesville seems high. but yes we will see.

 

On 12/6/2018 at 7:41 PM, Snowchaser said:

DT is calling for 4-8 for Charlottesville haha

 

On 12/6/2018 at 11:25 AM, Snowchaser said:

Accuweather snowfall forecast made 30 mintues ago

Charlottesville 3-6 locally 8''

 

 

On 12/5/2018 at 10:36 PM, Snowchaser said:

NOAA

ISSUED 2050Z

1.00 QPF Charlottesville

 

 

On 12/3/2018 at 10:14 PM, Snowchaser said:

Great update from DT!! here it is in short.

''around 3 inches in Washington to Baltimore is most likely, with the chance for 8-9 inches,

and a good chance for a historical snowfall from Charlottesville down into south western Virginia" 

 

 

On 12/1/2018 at 12:03 AM, Snowchaser said:

charlottesville looks like the winner

*thus far*

 

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1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Well it's on its own for now. Although it wouldn't shock me if we are sweating the rain/snow line by the end of the week.

If you are worried about the Rain/Snow line... most of this subforum would be screwed

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Cmc is far from the best model but it's been leading the way with this system so far

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6 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

12z GEFS shows pretty good support for the Monday storm.  Mostly hits DC and south.  The misses are to the south.  

Most members must keep the storm south. Looks like the qpf mean for DC is only about .10

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DT's "blog" is stating that there could be three events.

 

3/1 - DC, NoVA, Western MD Hit

3/3-3/4 NoVA, DC, All of MD. RIC gets 1"

3/5-3/6 All of the subforum should be happy.

 

 

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