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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand


stormtracker
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3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yes--I kinda jumbled two things together here: One "pattern" I mentioned was the wet Fall numbers depicted in JB2's chart I posted. 

The other was my own observation of the totals of the winters preceded by these years...

WMAR_Wettest_YEARS_1537826758433_98481359_ver1.0_640_480.png.907559751ba15efd0d2c3e600f4ac678.png

Now interestingly, there is some overlap with the top 3 wettest years here and the top 3 wettest Falls in the other chart. And now this winter makes it the 4th time such an overlap occured. So maybe statistically it doesn't mean much...but I was certainly a bit concerned about the trend repeating itself this winter...and lo and behold, it did, lol Can't we concludr, then...that so far in recorded history, years that were wet like these 5 (6 including this year) have never resulted in above average snow? (and weren't 2003-04 and 1979-80 also weak niños?) Doesn't make it impossible, but...if it ain't happened yet, hard for me to expect a different result the next time we have an extremely wet year, lol

2003/4 wasn’t a nino. 2004/5 was. 

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4 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

And there's our April Blizzard now starting to show up. And only 17/18 days away. :D 

fv3surface.gif.ce83edbdd19deb4a9fb9aceb56f2a9a0.gif

 

fv3500s.gif.52547028a963aaa99e5ab3ba7b879fec.gif

Lol. It's going to be fun tracking snow storms on the fv3 leading into the July 4th holiday. 

It's gonna be  tough to pack when we head down to Ocean City.

Hmm. Should I pack swimming trunks or my snow boots lol.

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1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

hould I pack swimming trunks or my snow boots lol.

Better yet, snow boots or surf board ? 

Might take until 2020 for the FV3 to go operational as the flagship model.  What a waste of time that model -  should develop a tool that blocks models not just posters. 

 

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25 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Looks like this thread is finally dying. Winter has been over in my world for about a month now. I wasn't wrong.

did we have a winter is the question.  we had a bunch of storms and continuation of precip producers with the occasional well timed progressive cold airmass.  i'm just glad i got that mid jan storm out of it.  this winter could have been a real epic bust if it wasn't for that one.  aside from the '16 blizzard, we haven't had a really true start to finish winter in several years.

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Looks like this thread is finally dying. Winter has been over in my world for about a month now. I wasn't wrong.

Those chasing the FV3 got about 3 flakes in a passing snow shower, versus the 86 inches it forecasted. 

Not to mention 81 pages of tracking an empty winter full of false hopes. In the future everyone should temper expectations and put little confidence in any forecaster who does the long range winter thing.  In this day and age, and the way things are going globally,  I personally feel no one currently can predict seasonal weather in advance better than simple climo.     

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Looks like this thread is finally dying. Winter has been over in my world for about a month now. I wasn't wrong.

Hope everyone has a nice spring/summer. It’s been fun as always.  See you in October unless we get a tropical threat. We’ll get the goods next season!

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28 minutes ago, frd said:

Those chasing the FV3 got about 3 flakes in a passing snow shower, versus the 86 inches it forecasted. 

Not to mention 81 pages of tracking an empty winter full of false hopes. In the future everyone should temper expectations and put little confidence in any forecaster who does the long range winter thing.  In this day and age, and the way things are going globally,  I personally feel no one currently can predict seasonal weather in advance better than simple climo.     

Yup go with climo and reduce by 33%. Hard to beat it.

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did we have a winter is the question.  we had a bunch of storms and continuation of precip producers with the occasional well timed progressive cold airmass.  i'm just glad i got that mid jan storm out of it.  this winter could have been a real epic bust if it wasn't for that one.  aside from the '16 blizzard, we haven't had a really true start to finish winter in several years.
I dont really see how one could rationally ask that question if your location is the immediate dc area. In rockville we recieved over 24 inches for the season..the jan storm was great but several more were solid low to moderate storms not to mention another decent 5 incher in feb! I your excpectation is wall to wall cold with endless snow maybe just a few years 2003/4,2009/10,2013/14 come to mind. In fact dca and dulles scored better than 2015 and WAY better than the last two! I do understand the frustration of people like CAPE ..but it was a very lucky winter for us, because you know 201/2012 is up next!!

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I dont really see how one could rationally ask that question if your location is the immediate dc area. In rockville we recieved over 24 inches for the season..the jan storm was great but several more were solid low to moderate storms not to mention another decent 5 incher in feb! I your excpectation is wall to wall cold with endless snow maybe just a few years 2003/4,2009/10,2013/14 come to mind. In fact dca and dulles scored better than 2015 and WAY better than the last two! I do understand the frustration of people like CAPE ..but it was a very lucky winter for us, because you know 201/2012 is up next!!

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Correction on my part..equalled 2015 think dulles snowfall was higher that year.


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For the most part I was impressed with how well the models did in the 2.5 - 6 day time frame.  The models were mostly useless in the 8-14 day time frame; however, this is a time frame when models only provide useful information during certain windows when teleconnections indicate that a longer range forecast should have skill (certain combinations of the QBO MJO ENSO post-stratospheric warming). 

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11 hours ago, weatherjedi said:

I dont really see how one could rationally ask that question if your location is the immediate dc area. In rockville we recieved over 24 inches for the season..the jan storm was great but several more were solid low to moderate storms not to mention another decent 5 incher in feb! I your excpectation is wall to wall cold with endless snow maybe just a few years 2003/4,2009/10,2013/14 come to mind. In fact dca and dulles scored better than 2015 and WAY better than the last two! I do understand the frustration of people like CAPE ..but it was a very lucky winter for us, because you know 201/2012 is up next!!

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it was fringe...real fringe.  we hit our snow totals because our record breaking precip year bled into the winter.  the nov to march precip totals at dc are insane...over 20" i think.  imagine if we had more sustained cold.

https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/dcaprecip.pdf

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it was fringe...real fringe.  we hit our snow totals because our record breaking precip year bled into the winter.  the nov to march precip totals at dc are insane...over 20" i think.  imagine if we had more sustained cold.
https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/dcaprecip.pdf
Yes..that is correct. The insane precip totals did help immensely, but when it come to snow i think well take it any way we can get! I did enjoy jan this year and the early november cold,imo best winter since 2015!

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16 minutes ago, weatherjedi said:

Yes..that is correct. The insane precip totals did help immensely, but when it come to snow i think well take it any way we can get! I did enjoy jan this year and the early november cold,imo best winter since 2015!

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overall, yes, we had a winter, but i think there's a reason it got mostly C grades across the board.  lots of rain, no sustained cold, and only one sizable event.  the jan 12/13 storm was great and the first part of feb 20, but i gotta factor into the equation that a lot of the snow didn't stick around due to generally mild temps and/or just getting washed out soon after.  honestly, i actually prefer mild winters with periodic snow...it was the rain that i thought was excessive.  december was a no show as well.  however, i certainly grade this higher than the previous 2 winters.

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