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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand


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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The real threat still looks good 

8955E8D9-C794-4CDA-AE6F-7E9ADCDA5187.thumb.png.60193de47703f567e879071b41b783d8.png

 

Pretty sure you're not serious but hope you're right; obviously, April 1st is very close to the time of year when only the day-10 model climate is cold enough for accumulating snow. It'll be memorable for sure.  Keep the faith ocean temperatures are near their annual minimum. 

The EPS also has weak support for this "event" - at least north of DC

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On 3/20/2019 at 8:37 PM, JakkelWx said:

What DT actually meant when he said it was gonna be dry for 10 days is that he wasn't gonna drink for 10 days. Well you see how that went.

Nice.! I read that post too.. and I was a little confused when he said it was gonna be dry for like 15 days or something..   We are in a flood warning right now.  I kinda feel sorry for him.

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12 minutes ago, PDIII said:

Nice.! I read that post too.. and I was a little confused when he said it was gonna be dry for like 15 days or something..   We are in a flood warning right now.  I kinda feel sorry for him.

I do also BUT making absolute statements especially with weather is a formula for disaster.  Sometimes we dig our own graves, jump in, then regret it.  

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38 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I do also BUT making absolute statements especially with weather is a formula for disaster.  Sometimes we dig our own graves, jump in, then regret it.  

He is kinda like JB2's doppelganger. Both are weenies gone awry.. once a promising career in broadcast meteorology.. now just trying to make it big on facebook.. but thats where there's path diverge.. Berk was a great caster butt I think his weenie stuff got in the way.  But now he does school assemblies and he is active in the community.  He came to my  kids school.. I think he is genuinely happy to be a facebook met.  DT just yells at people that visit his page.  I think I  got banned from DT I think the first day I commented on one of his posts.       

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There’s not many hits in the 00z euro members, though there’s still a small handful. Not looking great but given what happened with this week’s storm I think it’s fair to not totally give up yet. FWIW, the 12km NAM sees a cold front as well now that we’re in that range.

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9 minutes ago, yoda said:

when 75 and sunny reappears... then that is Spring.  Next 10 days isn't really spring with lows 25-35 and highs in the 50s with a few low 60s mixed in

i'm perfectly ok considering 50s/60s spring.  i guess the early next week situation could end with some flakes, but it's never a good setup dealing with cold air timing while precip is departing...especially in march.  pretty mild leading in, too.

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Welp, with over 18" Sept-Nov, this pattern turned out to hold true...I was always a bit concerned about how much rain we got last year; my concern was that the top 5 wettest years to that point were all followed by below average (20.1") of snow at BWI!

Screen-Shot-2018-09-28-at-11.47.05-AM (1).png

When you use a dependent variable that only happens about 30% of the time (above avg snowfall) along with an independent variable with a sample size of 5...you have absolutely no statistical significance.   Chances are high you got that result from random chance.   

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7 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

It’s a testament to everyone’s dedication that this thread somehow has 80 pages.  

Hopefully with the fv3 by the time we’re done tracking this year it will already be picking up on next years threats!!!  Maybe we can have a debate in the summer of exactly which season the fv3 day 10 snow belongs. 

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59 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

When you use a dependent variable that only happens about 30% of the time (above avg snowfall) along with an independent variable with a sample size of 5...you have absolutely no statistical significance.   Chances are high you got that result from random chance.   

I take it you are well-versed in statistics (do you teach that as well? Either way, your annoyance last time makes more sense, lol). Guess I have a less-than-rational logic when a particular trend (like the top 5 wet years having sub 20" winters) has not been broken. Always feels safer to bet on it repeating! But that's feeling and not statistics, I suppose...lol (you see such logic used on sports broadcasts all the time! "90% of the time a team does this, this happens")

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41 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I take it you are well-versed in statistics (do you teach that as well? Either way, your annoyance last time makes more sense, lol). Guess I have a less-than-rational logic when a particular trend (like the top 5 wet years having sub 20" winters) has not been broken. Always feels safer to bet on it repeating! But that's feeling and not statistics, I suppose...lol (you see such logic used on sports broadcasts all the time! "90% of the time a team does this, this happens")

But are those the top 5 wettest falls?  Or just the top 5 wettest falls in that subset of years with wet summers?  And some of those wet years just outside the top 5 were snowy. And there is a decent chance that any random 5 years would all be below 20” snowfall. Correlation does not equal causality. So I cannot say that there isn’t causality. But that small correlation in no way proves it does.  It does show a wet fall isn’t a sign of a snowy winter though.  

One of my degrees is sociology and I used statistics a lot for that. I also had to get certified in economics and needed statistics for that. Plus I took statistics for meteorology before switching majors. 

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34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

t does show a wet fall isn’t a sign of a snowy winter though.  

We both know there are many that get very worried when the fall is dry. But, alas that is not a bad thing, just like so many misconceptions out there from sunlight in March and snow accumulating , to SSWE and blizzards are coming, to early season snowfalls are a curse to winter snowfall, ( hold on I have to think about that one a little more ) ;)   

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13 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

But are those the top 5 wettest falls?  Or just the top 5 wettest falls in that subset of years with wet summers?  And some of those wet years just outside the top 5 were snowy. And there is a decent chance that any random 5 years would all be below 20” snowfall. Correlation does not equal causality. So I cannot say that there isn’t causality. But that small correlation in no way proves it does.  It does show a wet fall isn’t a sign of a snowy winter though.  

One of my degrees is sociology and I used statistics a lot for that. I also had to get certified in economics and needed statistics for that. Plus I took statistics for meteorology before switching majors. 

Yes--I kinda jumbled two things together here: One "pattern" I mentioned was the wet Fall numbers depicted in JB2's chart I posted. 

The other was my own observation of the totals of the winters preceded by these years...

WMAR_Wettest_YEARS_1537826758433_98481359_ver1.0_640_480.png.907559751ba15efd0d2c3e600f4ac678.png

Now interestingly, there is some overlap with the top 3 wettest years here and the top 3 wettest Falls in the other chart. And now this winter makes it the 4th time such an overlap occured. So maybe statistically it doesn't mean much...but I was certainly a bit concerned about the trend repeating itself this winter...and lo and behold, it did, lol Can't we concludr, then...that so far in recorded history, years that were wet like these 5 (6 including this year) have never resulted in above average snow? (and weren't 2003-04 and 1979-80 also weak niños?) Doesn't make it impossible, but...if it ain't happened yet, hard for me to expect a different result the next time we have an extremely wet year, lol

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