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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand


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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps basically unchanged...still looking solid 

Day 7

 

Screenshot_20190320-053134_Chrome_crop_507x818.jpg

Interesting. EPS actually improved with the overall look. Seems the GFS just wants to blow a cold front thru. Fv3 is a weaker progressive lp flying by underneath half of the region as is the CMC now. Icon is all over the place. Will give the euro and EPS points for consistency anyway tho they could be consistently incorrect as well.

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Interesting. EPS actually improved with the overall look. Seems the GFS just wants to blow a cold front thru. Fv3 is a weaker progressive lp flying by underneath half of the region as is the CMC now. Icon is all over the place. Will give the euro and EPS points for consistency anyway tho they could be consistently incorrect as well.

Consistency does not = correct outcome

 

Two years ago the GFS for 22 runs in a row had a SECS for us, the Euro never had such a forecast.  Guess what, the GFS was wrong, duh...... never got a flake. Problem this year is the Euro blows too and its brother the weeklies. 

 

 

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39 minutes ago, frd said:

Consistency does not = correct outcome

 

Two years ago the GFS for 22 runs in a row had a SECS for us, the Euro never had such a forecast.  Guess what, the GFS was wrong, duh...... never got a flake. Problem this year is the Euro blows too and its brother the weeklies. 

 

 

 

24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 

Yep. Consistently incorrect was a recurring theme from this past winter.

The euro was ok inside day 6/7 when it counts. I think we’re being a bit harsh grading day 10-15 fails with much weight. We know their skill is barely above climo at that range. 

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I think we need to turn our attention to April.  This comes from a storm April 2-3 LOL

ens.png.f4ea7de050e6425a85ac0ebe53088d08.png

I mean were due for an April HECS right?

Kidding aside EPS continues to scatter hits across our area next week.  6Z GEFS, on the other hand, completely lost the threat.  Keys on the northern stream feature and cuts a lot to the lakes and then simply a dry frontal passage.  Model war right now.  Before people assume the euro wins this, the GFS actually has won a couple of these disputes lately...or at least the final compromise solution was closer to the GFS than the Euro... and the GFS agreed with the euro yesterday and now has diverged.  Not saying I favor the GFS att...but those 2 factors make this a more difficult choice than just saying...Euro is King.  

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24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think we need to turn our attention to April.  This comes from a storm April 2-3 LOL

ens.png.f4ea7de050e6425a85ac0ebe53088d08.png

I mean were due for an April HECS right?

Kidding aside EPS continues to scatter hits across our area next week.  6Z GEFS, on the other hand, completely lost the threat.  Keys on the northern stream feature and cuts a lot to the lakes and then simply a dry frontal passage.  Model war right now.  Before people assume the euro wins this, the GFS actually has won a couple of these disputes lately...or at least the final compromise solution was closer to the GFS than the Euro... and the GFS agreed with the euro yesterday and now has diverged.  Not saying I favor the GFS att...but those 2 factors make this a more difficult choice than just saying...Euro is King.  

you win 9 out of 10 times by taking the least snowiest model

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

you win 9 out of 10 times by taking the least snowiest model

That is true lately, but then there are years like 2003, 2010, 2014, 2015... when guidance was less snowy from range then reality.  It cuts both ways...but it does seem more often than not when we are in our typical sucky climo years go with the least snowy model is the wining formula.  

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Regarding the EPS/GEFS diferences around our day 6-7 system, the euro is swinging the NS trough through ahead of the southern feature and leaving way more energy behind.  

That creates a nice setup here...

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_7.thumb.png.ab7a0f57b865a4f238f8ed5f0b815ba8.png

EPSlowbehind.thumb.png.9c54f2b06e3a125e0999b38199b89580.png

The NS comes in ahead and supplies the cold and creates confluence to our north... while there is enough energy coming in behind to track a system under us.  

But the GFS/GEFS/FV3 keys on the northern stream...leaves almost nothing behind and so it drives a low to our north and then simply drags a cold front through behind.  

gfs-ens_z500a_us_24.thumb.png.a34cc9d9572d3e8dbdca52682df3615b.png

gefsfront.thumb.png.62271bc1acd9b5a99305c20a13680488.png

On the one hand the euro MIGHT be playing into its bias of leaving energy behind here.  BUT... most of the secondary guidance agrees more with the euro progression.  

GEPS is probably the most supportive...

gem2.thumb.png.01eaa8bc6649e761237df57227dddb0a.png

while the GEFS at the same time has nothing

gfsnothing.thumb.png.04fcfa10a6b63105e3c3c19cfd4868d7.png

The NAVGEM and UKMET are also in the euro camp with having separation between the two features and leaving enough behind to develop a storm, the ICON is kind of in between the two.  Keep in mind that even if we get the euro progression that does not mean we get a snowstorm.  The storm could still end up too warm, it is late March.  It could also end up suppressed.  So even getting the euro look isn't any guarantee of anything.  But we have to figure out the basic synoptic progression before we can even begin to worry about details like that.  ATT I would favor the euro progression...slightly, over the GFS.  

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It cuts both ways...but it does seem more often than not when we are in our typical sucky climo years go with the least snowy model is the wining formula. 

Thats fascinating , wonder whether science supports this at all or whether it is simple persistence but then is that based on some repeating formula that gives us the least snowiest outcome on most long range forecasts. So persistence is science based, certainly not random noise or luck ??

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13 minutes ago, frd said:

Thats fascinating , wonder whether science supports this at all or whether it is simple persistence but then is that based on some repeating formula that gives us the least snowiest outcome on most long range forecasts. So persistence is science based, certainly not random noise or luck ??

I do think there is some "persistent" themes within patterns.  The problem though is you never know when that is going to change...so it works until it doesn't.  You are basically guaranteed to eventually bust bad simply using persistence.  So it's definitely a good idea to factor in recent trends and learn from each scenario and apply it to the next...it has to be mixed in with synoptic analysis of each individual event also.  

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30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I do think there is some "persistent" themes within patterns.  The problem though is you never know when that is going to change...so it works until it doesn't.  You are basically guaranteed to eventually bust bad simply using persistence.  So it's definitely a good idea to factor in recent trends and learn from each scenario and apply it to the next...it has to be mixed in with synoptic analysis of each individual event also.  

Ah, makes sense,  maybe a novice example might be a combo way of forecasting such as 70 % modeling and 30 % persistence and see where the chips fall.  

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26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

ICON stays in the euro camp.  

NOVA bullseye

I know the final outcome is more than just the NAO and AO but flow, and confluence, etc., but I almost can see this happening.  Regardless though,  will not be doing any gardening yet.  Its cold out there. 

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5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Just to talk about the weather

Free country

Yea but this isn't even your region.  Not that your contributions to the NYC thread are all that wonderful but at least they belong there.  Furthermore, you typically just parrot something someone else said OR make an observation EVERYONE can see.  You don't add any analysis.  AND often what you said is WRONG.  The little bit of snow SNE gets is from the frontal wave.  The actual system that we are watching as a threat goes SOUTH of us and is squashed...gives some snow to southern VA.  

So again why are you here?

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