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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand


stormtracker
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24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

In other news doesn’t that crazy ens member we lol at have to be right eventually?  

B057E248-3BBC-4F41-BC62-1E7F54A7F330.thumb.jpeg.fddc878ebf780343c54c550ff7cf9fa5.jpeg

Add up the panels. It’s like 40-50” lol. I bet you wouldn’t complain about snow until at least October!  

Good Lord.  I'll take the over figuratively and literally.

Have to agree that it would be crazy to see anything remotely close to this verify.  With enough cold floating around, and some luck w/ timing, it is the season for big events.  

 

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Over the last 3 EPS cycles (00 and 12 UT today and 12 UT yesterday) the percent chance of exceeding 3" has increased from 10-20% for the northern part of our forum; while the chance for the DC-area has remained at 10-12%. Of course 4 cycles ago (00 UT yesterday) the chances throughout the area were ~4% 

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Sterling pretty bullish for next week...

 
On Monday, disturbances in both the northern and southern streams
will start to approach the area. The northern stream trough will be
quite dynamic, forcing the development of a large area of high
pressure in it`s wake. This high will shift southward in conjunction
with the upper trough, driving a powerful cold front southeastward
toward our area. The combination of the southern stream disturbance
approaching from the Tennessee Valley, coupled with the southward
surging cold front could produce precipitation across the area by
Monday afternoon. However, the positioning of the front and the
resultant chances for precipitation are still rather uncertain six
days out. The airmass behind the cold front looks very cold for late
March, and wintry precipitation may be possible behind the front,
even at lower elevations.

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8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

wintry precip 'may be possible behind the front'.

LOL.

Lots of other things may be possible, too.

Good luck with that one as we near April!

 

In fairness there is a decent chance of “some frozen” somewhere in the region and that’s all they said. Odds of it being significant are really low and that’s what most are chasing. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

In fairness there is a decent chance of “some frozen” somewhere in the region and that’s all they said. Odds of it being significant are really low and that’s what most are chasing. 

They totally lost me at 'even at the lower elevations'. jeez.

Maybe go with climo by default in the last days of March.

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4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

They totally lost me at 'even at the lower elevations'. jeez.

Maybe go with climo by default in the last days of March.

Wait...you didn’t believe the 12z GFS going from 70 to the upper 20’s in 12 hours? Lol

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19 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

They totally lost me at 'even at the lower elevations'. jeez.

Maybe go with climo by default in the last days of March.

It’s pretty rare to get a significant post March 25 snowstorm on the coastal plain. Not impossible but it’s rare.   But it’s less rare to just see some flakes or a slushy car topper. They didn’t say anything significant. And the airmass next week (right now) does look pretty anomalously cold.  I didn’t have an issue with it. If there is a healthy enough wave as the front presses I bet there are some flakes east of the fall line somewhere.  The threat of a bigger storm would be if something organizes and presses back north and that likely would favor climo locations if it even happens at all.  

One oddity I’ve noted...while there have been way more small and moderate snows (1-3 & 3-5”) in April here than in the coastal plain there have actually been more BIG 8”+ snows along the coast (especially NJ which is due east of me).  Granted those are super rare so it’s a tiny sample size and a lot of them were a long time ago but I have a theory that it takes a pretty wound up storm to get heavy snow that late and in April they have tended to be tightly would up coastal storms that blasted the coastal plain. Again they are super rare but at least statistically the coastal plain has had more 8”+ snows in April than me.  

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I know we’ve moved on but what went wrong this week was instead of that system coming across phasing into the coastal a NS system is diving into the lakes and pulling both southern features into it.  The southern feature is phasing into the NS not the other way around. Plus that strong NS feature to our NW turns the flow southerly and wrecks the thermal profile ahead of the southern system coming up.  The random runs that teased us a while ago had the NS diving in and phasing into the stj system to our south.  That was always a long shot. We may have trended back to a strong storm but in a different way that is hostile to frozen chances. 

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