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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand


stormtracker
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Overnight Euro saw a significant flip at 500's as to where it is looking much more like the GFS (fv3) then the others (GFS, CMC. ICON).  At this point though both the FV3 and the Euro are too slow with the intensification of the low (500's are lagging somewhat) and offer the best chances to our north. The looks being thrown up (Euro, FV3) are close though. Just a little deeper drop by the trough and a little shifting of the axis and/or placement would mean a world of difference to getting a bombing low at our latitude that could overcome the torching lower levels. I still place the odds as low with our chances but I think that they are much better then some may want to believe.

 

euro96.gif.03d222d9dd916019240da7b989f6cbf6.gif

 

fv396.gif.610aa0ad430995298b6fe3b645be7711.gif

 

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51 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Overnight Euro saw a significant flip at 500's as to where it is looking much more like the GFS (fv3) then the others (GFS, CMC. ICON).  At this point though both the FV3 and the Euro are too slow with the intensification of the low (500's are lagging somewhat) and offer the best chances to our north. The looks being thrown up (Euro, FV3) are close though. Just a little deeper drop by the trough and a little shifting of the axis and/or placement would mean a world of difference to getting a bombing low at our latitude that could overcome the torching lower levels. I still place the odds as low with our chances but I think that they are much better then some may want to believe.

 

euro96.gif.03d222d9dd916019240da7b989f6cbf6.gif

 

fv396.gif.610aa0ad430995298b6fe3b645be7711.gif

 

So the EURO  caved to the FV3? Interesting. 

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6 hours ago, Wonderdog said:

So the EURO  caved to the FV3? Interesting. 

fv3 didn't show and inland track until 00z.  And the fv3 backed off on the 2' of snow it had in that stale 40f airmass.

Fv3 did okay here, but the +snowfall bias remains.

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59 minutes ago, Amped said:

fv3 didn't show and inland track until 00z.  And the fv3 backed off on the 2' of snow it had in that stale 40f airmass.

Fv3 did okay here, but the +snowfall bias remains.

I was referring to the fact that it's had a storm for what, a week?  Track and snow are incidentals. lol

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  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Euro’s got a sub 980 off the NE coast on Friday, and seems to be showing the 9-10 day snow event again for us. That’s a much more positive outlook for snow than this time yesterday, at the very least! Even the Friday storm, although very unlikely it amounts to any snow for most of us, has my attention given all the shifting in the models.

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There will probably be some additional track/intensity changes but I wouldn't aim to high snow wise with the late week system. I would like to see development sooner/further south which is possible but not likely currently. It would be nice to at least get some kind of impacts from a bombing out coastal regardless of precipitation type.

 

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42 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

lol NAM.  If only we had some real cold air around

Since the setup wasn’t that good most failed to notice the antecedent temperature profile was degrading...to the point that any frozen is a real low probability even if we get this to trend towards a more amped west track. 

Its also super low probability but if the guidance is even close with a pressing anomalous cold airmass as a cutoff low system tracks under us day 8-10 that is a better setup. Still unlikely but less unlikely I guess. 

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Since the setup wasn’t that good most failed to notice the antecedent temperature profile was degrading...to the point that any frozen is a real low probability even if we get this to trend towards a more amped west track. 

Its also super low probability but if the guidance is even close with a pressing anomalous cold airmass as a cutoff low system tracks under us day 8-10 that is a better setup. Still unlikely but less unlikely I guess. 

I know.  It would still be interesting as is I guess.  

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47 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It’s wrong, but it went down like that, it would be epic heartache.  Just agonizing. And fitting. 

Christ thats the last thing I need right now. Thankfully its the NAM at range.

Give me a nice dry week, with a storm a couple hundred miles offshore.

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