Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand


stormtracker
 Share

Recommended Posts

22 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

Great writeup. This graphic supports your contention that it's really not the sun angle melting the snow while it is forming or ground temps preventing accumulation as much as increased warmth in the lower levels that reduces our snow chances in March. Note how much snow falls in March in areas at the same or even LOWER latitude than we are. The difference is elevation, which tends to offset the lower level warmth issues. 

image.thumb.png.040f15004f96bde9547f3c5db5711aa6.png

When I see maps like this, I'm reminded how special snowfall is. You realize cities like Chicago and NYC are basically at the same latitude as southern Italy and notice the climate differences. Even places further north in Europe get less snow. Climate is amazing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Though the GFS doesn't get it done this go round it is much closer to a winning solution then many of you probably realize and it generally shows us how we could possibly score without a -NAO. What we see is a low moving through the 50/50 region with a high following on its coat tails. What this is doing is backing the flow and raising heights in front of the trough dropping down into the Midwest. This in turn will tend to promote a deeper drop of the trough as well as giving us a closer to neutral tilt where the trough will not be as progressive. The biggest issue with this setup (lacking a -NAO) is that we are dealing with a much smaller window to time this then otherwise would be afforded with an -NAO locking the 50/50 in for a longer period of time. Seen enough runs with this general setup the last couple of days to believe it is a viable solution here. 

 

gfs500s.thumb.gif.6ea7013e587f3174ffaf13c323ab8d17.gif

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Though the GFS doesn't get it done this go round it is much closer to a winning solution then many of you probably realize and it generally shows us how we could possibly score without a -NAO. What we see is a low moving through the 50/50 region with a high following on its coat tails. What this is doing is backing the flow and raising heights in front of the trough dropping down into the Midwest. This in turn will tend to promote a deeper drop of the trough as well as giving us a closer to neutral tilt where the trough will not be as progressive. The biggest issue with this setup (lacking a -NAO) is that we are dealing with a much smaller window to time this then otherwise would be afforded with an -NAO locking the 50/50 in for a longer period of time. Seen enough runs with this general setup the last couple of days to believe it is a viable solution here. 

 

gfs500s.thumb.gif.6ea7013e587f3174ffaf13c323ab8d17.gif

Taking a look at the GEFS even though they haven't been to great this year is that they are showing a much better ridge out west as well which would help promote a further SW dig of the NS.  A noticeable shift further west with the mean SLP plot in response to it as well.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Amped said:

Gfs 168 has a closed 546  contour over MN but the southern stream ejects too fast for a phase and the HP crushes it.

Typical gfs depiction of a ku storm 7 days out. Not that its always the outcome.

What does ku stand for?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

53 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Though the GFS doesn't get it done this go round it is much closer to a winning solution then many of you probably realize and it generally shows us how we could possibly score without a -NAO. What we see is a low moving through the 50/50 region with a high following on its coat tails. What this is doing is backing the flow and raising heights in front of the trough dropping down into the Midwest. This in turn will tend to promote a deeper drop of the trough as well as giving us a closer to neutral tilt where the trough will not be as progressive. The biggest issue with this setup (lacking a -NAO) is that we are dealing with a much smaller window to time this then otherwise would be afforded with an -NAO locking the 50/50 in for a longer period of time. Seen enough runs with this general setup the last couple of days to believe it is a viable solution here. 

 

gfs500s.thumb.gif.6ea7013e587f3174ffaf13c323ab8d17.gif

It has a chance... fighting the progressive atlantic flow though.  I find it funny how every time 1993 comes up as an analog, it is usually surrounded by really crappy analogs.  Yea if you can get all 3 branches of the jet to phase into an STJ system at the base of a trough then having a negative NAO is really not that important.  That storm can go to town no matter what the high latitude situation is.  But typically, absent some kind of crazy phase solution, having the kind of progressive flow that comes with a positive NAO in the Atlantic makes it hard to get something to phase and amplify in time.  A positive NAO doesn't always mean warm, if the pacific is bad AND the NAO is bad year thats a torch.  But a -EPO or +PNA can deliver cold with a positive NAO but getting a major amplification on the east coast is still difficult.   I suppose March is the best time to try it though with the shorter wavelentghs and it CAN and has happened before absent NAO help so I am not ruling anything out, just skeptical.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

euro laughs at us... 1005 mb low near Bermuda LOL

Flow is way too progressive in the northern stream on the euro.  

terrible end to a terrible winter. Never got that congested blocky look. Ninas are the worst...especially when they are Ninos

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, Ji said:

terrible end to a terrible winter. Never got that congested blocky look. Ninas are the worst...especially when they are Ninos

Not all ninos have that. 2003 after December didn’t. 2015 never did. But we also lacked either the Aleutian low or east based epo ridge that also typically “saves” the +NAO ninos. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, Ji said:

terrible end to a terrible winter. Never got that congested blocky look. Ninas are the worst...especially when they are Ninos

And it wasn’t really an awful year it just fell shy of expectations. Kind of like if you think you have a 12 win super bowl contender and go 9-7. If this was a Nina year we would have been happy. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

And it wasn’t really an awful year it just fell shy of expectations. Kind of like if you think you have a 12 win super bowl contender and go 9-7. If this was a Nina year we would have been happy. 

It's all about expectations and the hype of a great pattern that didn't come close to materializing disappointed everybody, I would think. When the experienced guys are that wrong, it's tough on the rest of us snow lovers. And 9-7 keeps you in the running. We've never been in the running this winter, except for next week of course.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

And it wasn’t really an awful year it just fell shy of expectations. Kind of like if you think you have a 12 win super bowl contender and go 9-7. If this was a Nina year we would have been happy. 
We got really lucky....and unlucky..we could of finished at 15 or 40 lol...I think the winter was frustrating because all we did was wait and wait ...then delay...wait...the climate models were terrible. Never has epic periods despite the weeklies constant looks. Never had a legit nor'Easter....no sustained winter weather
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's all about expectations and the hype of a great pattern that didn't come close to materializing disappointed everybody, I would think. When the experienced guys are that wrong, it's tough on the rest of us snow lovers. And 9-7 keeps you in the running. We've never been in the running this winter, except for next week of course.
I think DC beat Boston in djf... which is great until you realize DC had an average winter. Bad season for the east coast in general
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Ji said:
41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
And it wasn’t really an awful year it just fell shy of expectations. Kind of like if you think you have a 12 win super bowl contender and go 9-7. If this was a Nina year we would have been happy. 

We got really lucky....and unlucky..we could of finished at 15 or 40 lol...I think the winter was frustrating because all we did was wait and wait ...then delay...wait...the climate models were terrible. Never has epic periods despite the weeklies constant looks. Never had a legit nor'Easter....no sustained winter weather

It isn't always about hitting average snowfall. One 6-7" storm and I am at average. Wouldn't make any difference. This winter totally sucked here. It was much worse than the last 3. And I pretty much hated 2015-16.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It isn't always about hitting average snowfall. One 6-7" storm and I am at average. Wouldn't make any difference. This winter totally sucked here. It was much worse than the last 3. And I pretty much hated 2015-16.

For you it did suck. You have had an oddly different climo than the rest of us west of the Bay the last few years. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

For you it did suck. You have had an oddly different climo than the rest of us west of the Bay the last few years. 

Its always odd here lol. Last couple winters I caught the western edge of offshore coastals that left areas further inland high and dry. This year was just bad luck mostly. Basically the "inversion" of last winter, where I did fine and the DC crew was snow hole central. This winter when the set up was good enough for frozen, my area got snow holed/ less qpf than forecast, or precip was delayed in the front end thump events- and the column went to hell by the time the good stuff arrived. Just one of those winters.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Ji said:
1 hour ago, Wonderdog said:
It's all about expectations and the hype of a great pattern that didn't come close to materializing disappointed everybody, I would think. When the experienced guys are that wrong, it's tough on the rest of us snow lovers. And 9-7 keeps you in the running. We've never been in the running this winter, except for next week of course.

I think DC beat Boston in djf... which is great until you realize DC had an average winter. Bad season for the east coast in general

We were really the only ones that got above average snow though. And our area may have led the east coast in the number of snow events as well. I cannot complain at all about this winter. Yes. the northern folks in our sub got screwed on a couple of events. But this winter was great to the NW.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Really good winters(above normal snowfall) for the coastal plain are typically solid -AO first and foremost, and also feature some legit -NAO episodes. Not talking bootleg/transient/thread the needle stuff. Real NA blocking periods.

Meanwhile my daughter in Denver is at the SW edge of the newest forming Blizzard....... rinse and repeat.   What a year out in sections of the Eastern Rockies and  extending NE to the Upper Plains. Simply incredible !      

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, frd said:

Meanwhile my daughter in Denver is at the SW edge of the newest forming Blizzard....... rinse and repeat.   What a year out in sections of the Eastern Rockies and  extending NE to the Upper Plains. Simply incredible !      

Yeah the Badlands looks like a pretty bad ass place to be for this one. Blizzard warning with up to 2 feet of snow.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yea...definitely a step back . Just a quick peek at the 12z Eps it looked like for the day 7-9 period that the western ridge was sharper and positioned further west which is a good thing . I didn't see any big changes on the Atlantic side but I didn't look to in depth .

Not enough energy digs into the MS valley on this run.  Then the shredder comes crashing down from Quebec shreds whatever would have formed anyway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...