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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand


stormtracker
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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

2017 was a neutral year. Everyone kept calling it a Nina but it was only like -.3 during the winter. It was cold neutral. 

Yeah and as suck ass as Nina winters generally are, flukes do happen. Pretty interesting that in early Jan of both 2017 and 18 there were big coastal snowstorms that crushed the immediate MA coast and had little to no impact NW of I-95. They were pretty similar in track and amounts, both produced 10-15" in the jack zone, difference being the 2018 storm was a legit blizzard, and of course it happened in a Nina year(bomb cyclone!). Both storms gave my yard a pedestrian 5-6", which is why I chased each one at the beach. Goes without saying I made an excellent decision both times.

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I think most people on here are ready for spring lol but looking at the overnight runs of  the gfs/fv3/GEFS the window of the 17-22 still looks to be there.

It does look dry at the moment but both the gfs/fv3 shows shortwaves diving down under us and exiting the Carolina coast. 

Looking at 850 anomalies on the GEFS it would be plenty cold for snow if we could get one of the shortwaves to blow up.

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Anthony Masiello

"The sequence of events next week across the Pacific is reminiscent of the 1980s and 1990s. There's an extratropical/tropical interaction for exciting the low-frequency signal's forcing, producing a phase 8-like response in the PNA sector"

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2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

We have a really nice +PNA around this time. GFS does this:

gfs_namer_252_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

Euro just misses Wave 1 and is loading up a Wave 2

o.gif

I've seen this before though, the +PNA won't trend any stronger so it's either going to be rain or nonevent. 

Where have you seen this before ?

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The pattern isn’t bad but none of the ensembles or ops are picking up on any actual threats. Just dry cold. That can change as discrete systems come in range but if something is going to show we better start to see hints soon. Around day 12 looks the most likely. The day 8 wave needs to trend a lot less progressive. 

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37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The pattern isn’t bad but none of the ensembles or ops are picking up on any actual threats. Just dry cold. That can change as discrete systems come in range but if something is going to show we better start to see hints soon. Around day 12 looks the most likely. The day 8 wave needs to trend a lot less progressive. 

Ask and yee shall receive.

It’s not much but suddenly the EPS is peppered with a handful of snowstorms day 10-15 and several other storms that are close. The definite majority is still dry though. Most members are just bone dry day 6-15. But several now blow up one of those waves day 10-15. 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ask and yes shall receive.

It’s not much but suddenly the EPS is peppered with a handful of snowstorms day 10-15 and several other storms that are close. The definite majority is still dry though. Most members are just bone dry day 6-15. But several now blow up one of those waves day 10-15. 

I'm good with bone dry. A late wet slop snowstorm wouldn't change my feelings about this winter. Given the the extremely favorable winter outlooks, the persistent epic LR pattern teases on the models, and the fact that every single event minimized/under-performed in my yard, makes this the worst winter in several years here.

A late "save" would at best change the grade from a D---- to a D--. Complete suckage either way.

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I'm good with bone dry. A late wet slop snowstorm wouldn't change my feelings about this winter. Given the the extremely favorable winter outlooks, the persistent epic LR pattern teases on the models, and the fact that every single event minimized/under-performed in my yard, makes this the worst winter in several years here.

A late "save" would at best change the grade from a D---- to a D--. Complete suckage either way.

Sounds like Mr Grumpy needs a bourbon barrel stout. :lol:

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2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Given the the extremely favorable winter outlooks

But were those favorable outlooks really realistic though?  From discussion I have seen on here, it seems like a lot of warning signs were missed.

No disagreement about the LR models though.  I'm not sure I will ever again be able to take them seriously.

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55 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

But were those favorable outlooks really realistic though?  From discussion I have seen on here, it seems like a lot of warning signs were missed.

No disagreement about the LR models though.  I'm not sure I will ever again be able to take them seriously.

Well, the Nino pretty much completely failed, and many of the winter outlooks were predicated on that. But to be fair, it was clearly going to be a late developer it it did occur at all, and there were some who were hyping early blocking etc, similar to 2009-10, which was clearly a "reach".

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