Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand


stormtracker
 Share

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Looking at the latest EPS vs yesterdays 12z run and we can see the improvements we are seeing. Notice with the upper level support now focusing more towards the coastal we are seeing much weaker lower pressures to our west and a stronger and quicker developing coastal compared to previous runs. In response to the improvements with our coastal we are seeing a closer/tucked in coastal that is now moving northward somewhat before exiting stage right. We are also seeing a pretty good response in regards to our temps as well. We really aren't too far from a solution that might have a somewhat meaningful impact for portions of our region especially to the NE (NE MD pummled  :) ).

yesterday 12z

eps12zcoastal.thumb.gif.e4b9d657e54994bddb24b48f2f43167c.gif

00Z

eps00zcoastal.thumb.gif.1de05e1a5b78590f01a3871ddd3d4afd.gif

 

 

 

Problem is the guidance is also trending warmer and that is across all guidance. We likely do see some good precip from the coastal  but I have doubts it’s snow, even up here. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That ICON again looks like potential ice/sleet just immediately along and northwest of I-95.  Just going by the 2-m temp and precip type on TT (and the ICON shows ZR/IP as "rain").  Can't see what levels above the surface are like.  Also, maybe this was mentioned before...but I don't necessarily think our "problem" (at least nearer to the metros) is so much the location/path of the southern low, but that low north of the Lakes that moves east-northeast and whatever front that takes its time moving through.  How fast can we get cold air in here as the low to the south moves up toward the coast and can there be enough of a push?  The temps actually seem to cool slightly or at least stay "constant" during the precip.  Obviously that's all inter-related in some fashion.  Probably being master of the obvious here, so sorry if that's the case, but just bringing that up.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, stormtracker said:

I was mostly mocking the annoying kid from CHO.   We're on the bubble with a lean toward rain.  I can't see the soundings from the ICON

Yeah, ICON is kind of difficult to get much from...at least on TT, you can only see the 2-m temps, plus freezing/sleet is shown as "rain" on those plots.  Makes it a bit hard to assess in these situations.  Agree that right near metros is kind of leaning rain according to that, but the 2-m freezing line isn't far away.  Crazy to parse it too much at this point, of course.  We really need colder air to move in sooner.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I am cautiously optimistic but I’ll feel a lot better if the euro stops cutting the low to northern WV. 

You'll get pummeled while us down here near the metro area will be sucking on rain and mid 30s! :P  Joking of course(?), but it is true what you say about the Euro, for everyone (don't want a low moving that far north).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...