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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand


stormtracker
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Just now, Ji said:

dont worry--the -NAO that we never got and the 50 50 low that isnt there will keep the high not locked in

 

ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

The NAO is negative right now, at least wrt the h5 pattern. But it’s long gone by then. And not every block leads to snow. The 50/50 did mostly fail. The heights end up centered wrong for our purposes. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Well when we had a better cold push for Monday it was with a stronger cutter over the weekend yea. But I think the ship sailed on that. Even if the coastal amps up more I’m not sure a blocked system being forced east can create the kind of cold press the cutter in the lakes was.  

Right.  been so long since the cutter first appeared I forgot about it.  another lesson in not following op runs being taught here.  which makes me think its only Wed so there are more solutions to come. 

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The Euro is on its on here with how it amps up this system and its trajectory.  Even the amp happy CMC is very close to a hit....

I dont have access to temps and snow maps for the Ukie but it's 12z run looks like most other guidance.  I would think the euro comes to it's senses...not that it guarantees a hit but I dont think we see a 992 over Morgantown.

t5emshU.png

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1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

No one but God knows what is going to happen.  Thinking about it, if the models were reliable, this wouldn't be much of a hobby.  You could just say look at the EURO, etc.  So go old school and create your own map for Monday.  It is just as good as any of these computer generated models.

What page of the weenie handbook did you get that from?

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So he cancelled his epic March 1-15 snow/cold blitz in the east he was still riding a few days ago?  Funny if he bails too soon again like in January when he is typically too stubborn although when he is going anti snow that’s usually a really bad sign. 

Actually he's now concerned that his call for an early spring might be in trouble. He's worried the typhoon may recurve. Just a few days ago he said it was over from march 15th now he thinks the cold centered in the west could push east in late March into April. He says things may not progress through the warm mjo phases but instead after we hit phase 3 amplitude may be halted. Its laughable. He's all over the place. I literally have no idea half the stuffs he talks about anymore. He babbles on.

I think he still thinks something will dig later next week but he's very vague. 

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2 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Actually he's now concerned that his call for an early spring might be in trouble. He's worried the typhoon may recurve. Just a few days ago he said it was over from march 15th now he thinks the cold centered in the west could push east in late March into April. He says things may not progress through the warm mjo phases but instead after we hit phase 3 amplitude may be halted. Its laughable. He's all over the place. I literally have no idea half the stuffs he talks about anymore. He babbles on.

I think he still thinks something will dig later next week but he's very vague. 

He probably has no clue. Neither do I but he can’t admit that lol. 

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2 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Actually he's now concerned that his call for an early spring might be in trouble. He's worried the typhoon may recurve. Just a few days ago he said it was over from march 15th now he thinks the cold centered in the west could push east in late March into April. He says things may not progress through the warm mjo phases but instead after we hit phase 3 amplitude may be halted. Its laughable. He's all over the place. I literally have no idea half the stuffs he talks about anymore. He babbles on.

I think he still thinks something will dig later next week but he's very vague. 

Even if the MJO progresses to 4 or 5 it’s no lock for an early spring as everyone has been spouting.  We would likely see a mild period from 3/15-4/1 or so but it’s all up in the air after that.  Even in a case where the MJO rages into 4 or 5.  We would be primed for some sort of pattern shift by early April and that could easily be a cold one...who knows 

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4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Even if the MJO progresses to 4 or 5 it’s no lock for an early spring as everyone has been spouting.  We would likely see a mild period from 3/15-4/1 or so but it’s all up in the air after that.  Even in a case where the MJO rages into 4 or 5.  We would be primed for some sort of pattern shift by early April and that could easily be a cold one...who knows 

God? B)

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6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Even if the MJO progresses to 4 or 5 it’s no lock for an early spring as everyone has been spouting.  We would likely see a mild period from 3/15-4/1 or so but it’s all up in the air after that.  Even in a case where the MJO rages into 4 or 5.  We would be primed for some sort of pattern shift by early April and that could easily be a cold one...who knows 

Lol wrt winter weather it’s really too late by April here so the only time people here care about is the rest of March when it can still snow. Once it’s april none of JBs followers care. Their subs probably expire by then lol. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Lol wrt winter weather it’s really too late by April here so the only time people here care about is the rest of March when it can still snow. Once it’s april none of JBs followers care. Their subs probably expire by then lol. 

Ive actually never read JB outside of winter months. Does he do the same thing in the summer time...bring up every historical hurriacane analog?

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol wrt winter weather it’s really too late by April here so the only time people here care about is the rest of March when it can still snow. Once it’s april none of JBs followers care. Their subs probably expire by then lol. 

Oh yeah definitely too late for snow.  Even here.  But the issue is some of these Mets on Twitter I think are given people the impression it’s gonna be March or April 1991 or 2012 after 3/15 and I just don’t think that’s happening 

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Oh yeah definitely too late for snow.  Even here.  But the issue is some of these Mets on Twitter I think are given people the impression it’s gonna be March or April 1991 or 2012 after 3/15 and I just don’t think that’s happening 

You know, despite the weak Nino I can almost see a cool summer this year.  Even though I feel the Atlantic SSTs are going to warm up to above normal over a vast area of the Atlantic I would not be surprised to see a nice summer. Now watch it be top ten hottest .  

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6 minutes ago, Ji said:

Ive actually never read JB outside of winter months. Does he do the same thing in the summer time...bring up every historical hurriacane analog?

 

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

lol. And i am sure he hypes up heat waves like we live in saudi arabia

Yes he hypes everything with the same MO. I don’t follow much anymore but in the early 2000s I used to actually like him before I realized what he is. 

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4 minutes ago, frd said:

You know, despite the weak Nino I can almost see a cool summer this year.  Even though I feel the Atlantic SSTs are going to warm up to above normal over a vast area of the Atlantic I would not be surprised to see a nice summer. Now watch it be top ten hottest .  

If you believe the ENSO models which all show warm or warm neutral next winter, the majority of summers historically between back to back warmer ENSO winters were mild.  The only bad one I recall when we checked last week was 2004.  We tossed 1992 due to Pinatubo but 1953, 1958, 1969, 1977, 1987 were all relatively mild summers

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

lol. And i am sure he hypes up heat waves like we live in saudi arabia

The hype isn’t what turned me off so much. It was that as I learned enough to understand I feel I’ve caught him numerous times purposely misleading and lying. He knows too much for be to believe is just being ignorant in those cases. I can deal with hype but flat out lies and putting out a dishonest forecast is unethical. 

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