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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand


stormtracker
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8 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

All of the possible threats remind me a lot of the late season pattern in 14&15. Clarity never came into focus until basically hr72 at best. Go back and read the disco threads. Flow is fast. Even if the euro or gfs or whatever showed a foot today I wouldn't trust a damn thing because we're always 1 run away from a big shift. 

I think we should keep this in mind over the next couple days. 

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Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Just not enough spacing between waves on gfs. Not looking great

Nope. Gfs has a wave on Sunday morning that isn’t there on other guidance. That wrecks the spacing and flattens the flow behind it. If that wave is real there is almost no hope for the Sunday night wave. But the gfs has been alone with that so far. 

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Nope. Gfs has a wave on Sunday morning that isn’t there on other guidance. That wrecks the spacing and flattens the flow behind it. If that wave is real there is almost no hope for the Sunday night wave. But the gfs has been alone with that so far. 
Fv3 looks so different lol
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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Nope. Gfs has a wave on Sunday morning that isn’t there on other guidance. That wrecks the spacing and flattens the flow behind it. If that wave is real there is almost no hope for the Sunday night wave. But the gfs has been alone with that so far. 

It’s crazy how the models have been keying on different waves all winter. Whether it’s the complex pattern or not, the models have been kind of awful this winter. Is what it is 

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:
5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
Nope. Gfs has a wave on Sunday morning that isn’t there on other guidance. That wrecks the spacing and flattens the flow behind it. If that wave is real there is almost no hope for the Sunday night wave. But the gfs has been alone with that so far. 

Fv3 looks so different lol

Gfs seems on another planet with that wave Sunday morning but across all guidance there is a trend that’s a big problem. The wave is coming in faster and that decreases the spacing but also it then rides north because the front doesn’t have a chance to sink south. Before it can make any progress south the return flow ahead of the next wave hits.  Good news is the moving parts are still shifting every run but let’s hope they don’t finally settle on this idea. 

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Gfs seems on another planet with that wave Sunday morning but across all guidance there is a trend that’s a big problem. The wave is coming in faster and that decreases the spacing but also it then rides north because the front doesn’t have a chance to sink south. Before it can make any progress south the return flow ahead of the next wave hits.  Good news is the moving parts are still shifting every run but let’s hope they don’t finally settle on this idea. 

Seems like it will be a tad too north or crushed/suppressed. We will fail in the middle lol

 

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2 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Seems to me that this is change somewhat substantially with each new set of models. I have so little faith in any of the models that I'm almost to the point where I just wait for storms to be in NAM range and then just follow that lol. 

Maybe we should just abandon long range modeling altogether. Pour the funds and efforts into 5 day forecast models. On the flip side i do like digital snow lol

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2 hours ago, yoda said:

Surprised Ji hasn't been posting about the 00z Euro being a disaster for Sunday into Monday... nice large rainstorm

Eps is a train wreck. All those threats just gone. Lol. 

If we toss the fv3 it was unanimous across the 0z guidance that the wave Sunday night is rain now.  Two things happened. That wave sped up and amplified and the Saturday system weakened and the result was there was less cold push behind the Saturday wave and the return flow ahead of Sunday night and so the boundary shifted significantly north.  It was across all guidance.  It was just one run but if that change locks in for another run or two we can kiss that goodbye. 

But hey the gefs has some nice threats day 10-15 lol. 

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Yesterday when all the strong storm members of the eps were way NW that was a red flag to me. Again tonight most eps members that get snow into our area are the weak wave ones. Most of the ones that have a big snowstorm are way north. The really big 12”+ ones are way way way north. Like Cleveland to northern New England north. 

If the only way to get snow from it is to root for the system to be a weak squashed pathetic wave then what’s the point.  I’d honestly rather New England get 1-2 feet to build base for my ski trip later in the month than my yard get another 3” from some weak wave. 

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19 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Fwiw Eps mean mslp is well southeast of the OP for Sun/Mon ...goes over Va . Beach . Ukmet is similar to this local . Overamped solutions have increased within the members but 5 days out is too early for me give up on a decent hit .

Not giving up on anything just stating the obvious that there was a sudden severe shift north with the boundary for that storm the last 24 hours. There could be more shifts to come. Gfs is jumping the worse among guidance and the most out of sync with everything else so I’m kinda tossing it but your right a gfs euro comp would be good. 

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