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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand


stormtracker
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The gfs really is a disaster lol. Totally squashes everything.  No spacing between any of the waves.

The bigger concern to me is the trend at h5. The trough is digging less and coming in further east and more positively tilted lately. 

Honestly when I was looking at the 12z op euro at h5 I was thinking “I don’t really see how this wave is amplified enough to be significant”. There was nothing but flat progressive flow. 

There is still time and plenty of waves to work with but we need a trend towards one of these to be more amplified and more dig from the northern stream to start soon. 

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48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The gfs really is a disaster lol. Totally squashes everything.  No spacing between any of the waves.

The bigger concern to me is the trend at h5. The trough is digging less and coming in further east and more positively tilted lately. 

Honestly when I was looking at the 12z op euro at h5 I was thinking “I don’t really see how this wave is amplified enough to be significant”. There was nothing but flat progressive flow. 

There is still time and plenty of waves to work with but we need a trend towards one of these to be more amplified and more dig from the northern stream to start soon. 

 

The seasonal trend of squashed/surpressed or cutter mostly continues. 

When I read about the record speed of the PAC jet this winter ( 2 or 3 record events  since October ) in a West to East projectory, well I can't help but to think without a block or something to buckle or slow the jet it will be impossible for certain shortwaves to survive,  let alone amplify. (issues no blocking ie. -NAO or  failed attempts at a +PNA on at least 12 occassions ) 

I wonder if this winter this was an issue or bias in all the modeling for some reason with the models. I say that because on countless occassions storms went poof. cutters moved SE, maybe the models underestimate certain factors. Who knows what they are? 

Storms progged to be huge went weakish, in the medium range,  Happens over and over. A trait of the winter so far, same as the issues that give us Nina ish conditions at times.  I mean it interesting to ponder what the heck is going on, but all I want is some SNOW !!!!!    

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The gfs really is a disaster lol. Totally squashes everything.  No spacing between any of the waves.

The bigger concern to me is the trend at h5. The trough is digging less and coming in further east and more positively tilted lately. 

Honestly when I was looking at the 12z op euro at h5 I was thinking “I don’t really see how this wave is amplified enough to be significant”. There was nothing but flat progressive flow. 

There is still time and plenty of waves to work with but we need a trend towards one of these to be more amplified and more dig from the northern stream to start soon. 

Agreed and after I looked at the 12z gfs I didn’t want to say anything to bring the vibe down, but it looked squashy at h5.  I don’t think the upper level pattern has been ideal all year.  We’ve just gotten lucky with the progressive cold shots in an active pattern.  That might hold true over the next couple weeks as well.

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3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Agreed and after I looked at the 12z gfs I didn’t want to say anything to bring the vibe down, but it looked squashy at h5.  I don’t think the upper level pattern has been ideal all year.  We’ve just gotten lucky with the progressive cold shots in an active pattern.  That might hold true over the next couple weeks as well.

The gfs is the worst model I wouldn’t make my forecast based on the gfs. Everything is on the air at this time

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This isn't pertinent to March but has anyone seen any long range Spring/Summer forecasts?  Just curious.  Wondering if El Nino will survive throughout the summer and what that will mean as far as the weather being generally wet or dry.  I refuse to believe we can have another summer like last year with that much rain but I guess stranger things have happened.  

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26 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

It's really hard not to like this Eps clustering at a day 6 lead.

 

Screenshot_20190226-202619_Chrome_crop_534x815.jpg

That from 12z?  If so there was a mix of south, hits, and north. Problem was the really amped up solutions that put down big totals (8”+) were all north and rain. It was depressing that most of the hits were pretty minor to modest snowfalls.  The members that amped up into a big storm pushed the snow nw of us. That kind of was a red flag that out potential might be limited with this. If it’s weak it might hit but if it amps up enough to give good precip it might go north. 

These progressive waves are annoying that way. It’s really hard to get crushed by them at our latitude. That’s why I liked the idea of the northern branch digging and phasing and something bombing up the coast later in the week. That scenario would have more potential to give a big storm. The early week storm seems capped at a moderate event and even that seems ambitious att. 

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13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That from 12z?  If so there was a mix of south, hits, and north. Problem was the really amped up solutions that put down big totals (8”+) were all north and rain. It was depressing that most of the hits were pretty minor to modest snowfalls.  The members that amped up into a big storm pushed the snow nw of us. That kind of was a red flag that out potential might be limited with this. If it’s weak it might hit but if it amps up enough to give good precip it might go north. 

These progressive waves are annoying that way. It’s really hard to get crushed by them at our latitude. That’s why I liked the idea of the northern branch digging and phasing and something bombing up the coast later in the week. That scenario would have more potential to give a big storm. The early week storm seems capped at a moderate event and even that seems ambitious att. 

I think it's 18z. More amped.

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@losetoa6

Full disclosure I am big game hunting at this point.  I’m still 15” below climo and it’s been a weird year in that even locally up here I’ve been stuck in a hole. I’ve seemed to get less than even areas around me up here on several occasions.  Not used to that.  But more importantly I am a big storm fan and right now this winter has had the lowest single storm totals of every year I’ve been up here.  So another 3-5” snow has absolutely no appeal or interest to me. It wouldn’t change my perception of this year at all. It’s 8”+ or bust for me. I’ve had an 8”+ storm 8 years in a row and if this winter fails to achieve that it will feel like a failure to me. 

Keep in mind I’m more a big storm fan than just snow. I would rather a winter with 20” that all came in one big storm than a winter with 30” that fell 2-4” at a time. That’s just me.  I know most would go the other way on that but this winter has been my least favorite type.  All nickel and dime stuff here.  

So keep that in mind wrt my analysis. I think the odds of seeing snow in the next 2 weeks remains high. I think one of these waves will trend better. But I think the chances of an 8”+ storm took a serious hit the last 24 hours with the trend towards a much flatter trough. 

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2 hours ago, Danajames said:

This isn't pertinent to March but has anyone seen any long range Spring/Summer forecasts?  Just curious.  Wondering if El Nino will survive throughout the summer and what that will mean as far as the weather being generally wet or dry.  I refuse to believe we can have another summer like last year with that much rain but I guess stranger things have happened.  

It will likely be ENSO Neutral this year, +Neutral. I would expect slightly above average temperatures, and normal to above normal precipitation.

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